INVERSE SIMULATION FOR RECOMMENDATION OF BUSINESS SCENARIO WITH QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE HYBRID MODEL

Keisuke Negoro, Takeshi Nakazaki, Susumu Takeuchi, Masanori Akiyoshi

2008

Abstract

In order to decide an effective management plan, managers often draw up and evaluate business scenarios. To make the evaluation, a simulation method on the qualitative and quantitative hybrid model represented as causal graph has been proposed. There is a strong need to get optimal input values for the target outputs in the simulation, but exhaustive search can not be realistically applied to it from considering the processing time. Therefore, we propose a quick search method for optimal input values cencerning the qualitative and quantitative hybrid simulation. Our approach is to get optimal values of input nodes by inverse propagation of effects from the value of target output nodes on the simulation model. However, it generates the contradiction that the value of a separated node in the causal graph decided from one of destination nodes is different from the value of the other destination nodes. Therefore, we re-execute the inverse propagation repeatedly from the nearest qualitative node connecting to a quantitative node for solving the contradiction. By experimental results about the proposed method, time could be reduced for reaching the solution. We also could confirm a certain level of accuracy about the solution.

References

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  3. Samejima, M., Akiyoshi, M., Mitsukuni, K., and Komoda, N. (2007a). Business scenario design support by qualitative-quantitative hybrid simulation. In Proc. of The IEEE International Conference on eTechnology, e-Commerce, and e-Services (EEE'07) and the IEEE International Conference on Electronic Commerce (CEC'07), pages 401-408.
  4. Samejima, M., Negoro, K., Akiyoshi, M., Norihisa, K., and Mitsukuni, K. (2007b). Hybrid simulation on qualitative and quantitative integrated model using monte carlo method. In Proc. of 2007 Summer Computer Simulation Conference (SCSC 2007), in CD-Rom.
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Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Negoro K., Nakazaki T., Takeuchi S. and Akiyoshi M. (2008). INVERSE SIMULATION FOR RECOMMENDATION OF BUSINESS SCENARIO WITH QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE HYBRID MODEL . In Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Software and Data Technologies - Volume 1: ICSOFT, ISBN 978-989-8111-51-7, pages 333-338. DOI: 10.5220/0001900203330338


in Bibtex Style

@conference{icsoft08,
author={Keisuke Negoro and Takeshi Nakazaki and Susumu Takeuchi and Masanori Akiyoshi},
title={INVERSE SIMULATION FOR RECOMMENDATION OF BUSINESS SCENARIO WITH QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE HYBRID MODEL},
booktitle={Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Software and Data Technologies - Volume 1: ICSOFT,},
year={2008},
pages={333-338},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0001900203330338},
isbn={978-989-8111-51-7},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Software and Data Technologies - Volume 1: ICSOFT,
TI - INVERSE SIMULATION FOR RECOMMENDATION OF BUSINESS SCENARIO WITH QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE HYBRID MODEL
SN - 978-989-8111-51-7
AU - Negoro K.
AU - Nakazaki T.
AU - Takeuchi S.
AU - Akiyoshi M.
PY - 2008
SP - 333
EP - 338
DO - 10.5220/0001900203330338