A Digital Twin Simulator Approach as a Support to Develop an
Integrated Observatory of the Epidemic Risk in a Rural Community
in Senegal
Jean Le Fur
1
, Moussa Sall
2
and Jean-Marie Dembele
2
1
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations (CBGP),
Campus Baillarguet, CS 30016, F-34988 Montferrier-sur-Lez, France
2
Dépt. Informatique, Univ. G. Berger/Saint-Louis, Senegal
Keywords: Digital Twin, Epidemic Risk, Agent-Based Model, Data Driven Approach, EcoHealth Approach, Synthetic
Ecology, Complex System.
Abstract: Following the contemporary epidemiologic approach known as EcoHealth, the study of an epidemic risk must
consider and integrate the whole set of actors, factors and environments bound to the transmission of
infectious diseases. In this study, we propose using a mechanistically rich digital twin simulator as a tool to
facilitate this integration with the addition of a functional and dynamic dimension. The selected case study is
the monitoring of the risk associated with ticks and rodents in a rural community in the Sahelian region of
Senegal. To construct the digital twin, we iteratively went back and forth between field data collection and
computer transcription of knowledge. Thanks to the high resolution afforded by the digital twin approach,
the simulator enables the study of city-scale activity patterns as well as interactions between ticks, rodents,
cats, and humans that occur within habitation rooms and shops. In addition to (i) being able to provide
dynamic integrated support for the collected multidisciplinary knowledge, the digital twin realism provides
(ii) an appropriate medium for communicating results to non-expert populations and (iii) a useful tool for
monitoring and adjusting the observatory's data collection protocols. The model's complexity presents
calibration challenges that are discussed.
1 INTRODUCTION
Approximately two-thirds of known infectious
diseases in humans are zoonoses, which are diseases
whose pathogens are transmitted between vertebrate
animals and humans (Jones et al., 2008). These
diseases typically entail a multitude of interacting
actors. In the typical instance of tick-borne diseases
such as Lyme disease (Adrion, 2015) or Borreliosis
(Elbir et al., 2015), the interacting agents are
pathogenic bacteria, tick vectors of these diseases,
intermediate rodent hosts that serve as reservoirs for
pathogens, predators (e.g., cats) that regulate
populations, and finally, humans susceptible to
infection. All of these agents interact within diverse
environments on varied length scales (e.g., nests or
burrows of rodents, rooms or market places).
The inseparable interconnection of the components
within such complex systems is evident and requires
integrated approaches to human and animal health
and their respective social and environmental
contexts (Zinsstag et al., 2011). The so-called
EcoHealth (Lisitza and Wolbring, 2018) or
OneHealth (Mencke, 2013) approaches suggest
jointly taking into account the knowledge produced
by various thematic disciplines to better account for
the processes at work in the transmission or lack
thereof of a disease. However, a number of authors
(e.g., Lefrançois et al., 2023, Rotureau et al., 2022)
point out that it is still challenging to implement such
multidisciplinary approaches due to the number of
factors to be considered, scientific disciplines to be
involved and the difficulty of integrating them.
In this process of articulating acquired knowledge,
modern modelling and simulation tools, and
particularly the object paradigm derived from
computer science, are important assets. Indeed, in
terms of the study of such complex systems,
numerical experiments allow for the articulation of
134
Le Fur, J., Sall, M. and Dembele, J.
A Digital Twin Simulator Approach as a Support to Develop an Integrated Observatory of the Epidemic Risk in a Rural Community in Senegal.
DOI: 10.5220/0012135900003546
In Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH 2023), pages 134-142
ISBN: 978-989-758-668-2; ISSN: 2184-2841
Copyright
c
2023 by SCITEPRESS Science and Technology Publications, Lda. Under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
various types of determinants and the comprehension
of the potential outcomes of experiments that are
difficult or impossible to conduct in situ (Auffray et
al., 2011).
To implement such an approach, the observed reality
must be represented in the most accurate manner.
This is the objective of the approach in terms of
digital twins (Tao et al., 2022). Usually devised to
account for complicated (industrial processes,
factories, robots) devices, the approach in terms of
digital twin can also be considered as a metaphor that
can be adapted to account for complex phenomena
(e.g., Nie and al., 2023) including those involving
actors in society (Grieves and Vickers, 2017 in White
et al., 2021). The major outcome expected with the
use of such an approach is to produce artefacts that
are close enough to known reality to allow the
processes to be studied in as much detail as possible,
particularly at a very high spatial resolution. Since the
occurrence or not of an infection of humans, rodents,
ticks depends on the unique configuration of each
dwelling, room, or activity, the digital twin paradigm
was felt as a promising approach to deal with an
EcoHealth approach of the epidemic risk.
In this work, we present the digital twin approach that
we have developed to represent and exploit the
knowledge acquired in the context of developing an
EcoHealth-type integrated observatory of the
epidemic risk in a rural African community.
2 MATERIAL AND METHOD
2.1 Model Purpose
We propose in this work to set up an integrative tool
allowing to articulate abiotic, trophic, physiological,
behavioural, social, demographic and environmental
factors involved in the spread of epidemics in a
typical rural Sahelian community in Senegal.
However, rather than storing the collected data within
a static database management system, the knowledge
gathered on the various aspects of the system studied
is placed into dynamic relation through a simulator
that accounts for behaviours and interactions. The
issue is concretely of developing a model as realistic
as possible by using a so-called "mechanistically
rich" approach (DeAngelis and Mooij, 2003) bringing
together the knowledge from diverse thematic
disciplines such as bio-ecology, parasitology,
geography urban, social and human sciences.
The approach is also founded on a data-driven
strategy for which the model's primary purpose is not
to replicate the actual dynamics, but rather to serve as
a repository for retrieving domain-specific
knowledge. It aims, for instance, to identify the
components for which there is a knowledge gap and
to serve as a forum for discussion between scientists
from different disciplines as well as between
scientists and stakeholders (population, decision-
makers) to ensure that the observatory and its
protocols are continuously improved. The subsequent
objective is to gain a simulation tool capable of
simulating a variety of epidemic risk evolution
scenarios (from pathogens to humans, from shops to
burrows).
2.2 Case Study and Modelling Platform
The pilot site that has been selected to develop the
EcoHealth observatory is the town of Dodel
(16°29'10.1"N 14°25'56.5"W), a typical rural
community of the Sahel in northern Senegal. In the
chosen case study, the emphasis was placed on the
risk associated with the transmission of Borreliosis or
relapsing tick-borne fever, as described in the
introduction.
The simulation model used as support for this
work has already been developed and presented in Le
Fur et al. (2017, 2021). The model is developed using
Java and the agent-based technology. It is developed
using the Repast-Simphony platform (North et al.,
2013). Based on a bio-inspired approach (Le Fur et
al., 2023), it enables the representation of synthetic
ecologies that include a variety of animal and human
biological agents with their own characteristics,
capacities for observation, deliberation, action and
interaction. The model is based on a parsimonious
data system using chronograms of various events. It
uses a double formalisation of space with a
continuous Euclidean space for processing moves
combined with a discrete grid for reifying the
environment's constituent objects. The time step of
the model is configurable in the sense that changes in
time step are passed on to all the formalized dynamic
processes.
2.3 Achievement
The development of a digital twin of the city of Dodel
has been predicated on the principle of continuous
improvement. It entails to incrementally build the
model by performing round trips between the
acquisition of multidisciplinary data in the field and
the digital transcription of the collected information.
The simulator model hence progressively gathers and
connects, in an integrated and dynamic manner, the
most possible complete set of available data and
A Digital Twin Simulator Approach as a Support to Develop an Integrated Observatory of the Epidemic Risk in a Rural Community in
Senegal
135
knowledge on the various factors influencing the risk
of epidemics.
In this section, for each of the acquisition stages,
we detail the fieldwork that was performed, then
describe the formalisation that was retained and
developed in order to construct, in parallel, the
multidisciplinary observatory and its supporting
simulator.
2.3.1 Cartography
A high-resolution map of the study area was the initial
step. A team consisting of a modeller and geographer
conducted a two-week survey of the entire city centre.
Concessions, buildings, rooms and remarkable points
have been mapped. A survey was conducted on each
property to determine the number of structures, the
type of fence, and, most importantly, the number,
type, and purpose of each room. In accordance with
the logic of the digital twin, the readings included the
interior of homes in order to have the most accurate
representation of the rooms and corridors where
humans, pathogens, reservoirs, or vectors may come
into contact.
The collected data were then georeferenced with
a geographic information system, rasterized with a 1
m resolution, and incorporated into the simulator as a
grid where each cell represents an object with
attributes (type of place, presence of food, etc.). A
dedicated algorithm then identified contiguous
clusters of cells in order to determine the functional
level of the various spaces (ex: all cells contained in
a room are gathered in a higher level object of room
type).
2.3.2 Population Census
The resident population census was conducted at the
same time. This effort resulted in the identification of
all downtown residents and their respective
occupations. Each resident was then reified in the
simulator as a human type agent positioned in her/his
residence (or her/his shop for merchants).
Following the bio-inspired approach described in
Le Fur et al. (2023), each inhabitant is characterised
by attributes unique to either agents (name, age,
location, energy), containers (containing container,
containers contained, including pathogens), animals
(speed, sensing, trapped, etc.), or mammals (mating
latency, pregnancy, sexual maturity, suckling child,
gestation length, etc.). The value of each attribute is
provided either from data collected in the field (sex,
age, pregnancy status, etc.) or from literature (max
age, speed, sensing, etc.).
2.3.3 Rodent Trapping
Secondly, a new ten days survey was carried out in
the city to sample the main animal actors involved in
the epidemic risk. Traps were placed in selected
rooms several nights in a row and the rodents present
were captured. Following a standardised protocol,
each mouse capture led to biometric measurements,
observation of the genitals and an autopsy with
samples taken from different organs. In the model
each rodent observation was implemented as it has
been for humans by characterizing each agent by its
class attributes, acquired in the field (sex, estimated
age, pregnancy status in the case of females,...) or
recovered from the literature.
The behaviour of house mice, like that of other
mobile organisms in the model except humans (see
below) is driven by a desire - perception - deliberation
- decision - action type system (Le Fur et al., 2023).
concerning mice, modelling has also been the subject
of specific treatment to account for their particular
behaviour which compel them to move along walls
during their foraging activity. An algorithm has been
developed specifically for this purpose (Sall et al.,
2019).
2.3.4 Ticks
The protocol for collecting ticks involved locating
rodent burrows and crevices inside homes and in the
courtyards of compounds visited for rodent sampling,
and then vacuuming the contents of these holes with
a thermal vacuum cleaner. Each sample was then
visually inspected for ticks, and the collected ticks
were then placed in tubes.
The identified ticks were reified in the model
using an object class inheriting from the animal
category (sensing, velocity, etc.) with tick-specific
properties. In this case, additional attributes have
been added to represent the different stasis through
which these animals pass (egg, larvae, nymph, and
adult) as well as the processes of deliberation -
decision (waiting in a burrow, climbing on a rodent
or a human) and the timings allowing them to switch
from one to the other by incorporating three specific
attributes, namely the duration of a meal, the duration
of hibernation after a meal, and the number of meals
(McCoy and Boulanger, 2015).
2.3.5 Cats
During the survey to trap rodents and sample ticks,
the presence of cats was estimated based on direct
observations coupled with a questionnaire
administered to inhabitants. As precedently, the
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identified cats were reified into a distinct class
inheriting the traits of mobile mammals completed
with a relatively simple specific behaviour (sleep for
14 hours during the day, one meal at home per day
and a search activity for rodents in the streets of the
village at night).
2.3.6 Bacteria
Finally, the rodent and tick samples were sent to a
laboratory for bacterial strain identification (Ouarti et
al., 2022). When infected rodents or ticks were
identified, bacteria-like agents were reified and
introduced into the mouse or tick agents, respectively,
within the simulator. There are no agent-specific
attribute or behaviour for bacteria which are passively
transmitted from inside one agent to inside another
during a tick bite in the current model (mouse to tick,
tick to mouse, tick to human).
2.3.7 Human Activity
After completing this initial inventory of the present
protagonists, a decisive new field survey was
conducted to comprehend the daily rhythm of the city.
The purpose then was to complete the model in order
to determine and quantify the human activity periods
that are susceptible to epidemic risk (house mouse
movements, tick bites). Over the course of eight days,
every house in the city centre was re-visited, and the
residents (adults and adolescents) were questioned
individually about their daily activities, hour by hour,
as well as the time and place where they slept. These
surveys resulted in the recording of 3,519 instances of
activity involving 489 inhabitants and hence enabling
a nearly exhaustive description of daily human
activity in the city center. The wide variety of activity
obtained was synthesized following a logic of
appreciation of the possible interaction between
humans on the one hand and rodents or ticks that can
transmit diseases on the other. Each of these activities
has thus been categorised into four main types: (i)
movement corresponding to daily activity including
travel, (ii) wakefulness corresponding to the times
when the inhabitants remain steady but with their
eyes open and can perceive their environment
(prayer, internet, etc.); (iii) rest which is associated
with sleep (night, siesta) and during which the
inhabitants do not perceive their environment, finally
(iv) meals during which food can constitute an
olfactory stimulation and behavioural changes for
rodents. the 3,519 activity instances were thus
compiled and transcribed in this way before being
added to the simulator's database.
Given the explicit nature of the activity sequences
obtained as a result of this work, the human agents in
the model were not subjected to a process of
deliberation for their actions, as was the case for mice,
cats, and ticks; instead, the activity sequences
obtained for each resident were used to determine
their actions. Regarding movement, activities that
require moving through city streets were coded using
the A-star algorithm (Tjiharjadi et al., 2022), which is
a path finding algorithm in a graph that finds the
costless route from a starting point to a destination. It
was developed here, using an existing code (Suriabe,
2017), to formalise the population movements in the
graph of the city's streets (i.e., without crossing walls
and houses).
3 RESULTS
3.1 Cartography
A detail of the cartography that was obtained and
which serves as support for the simulator is presented
in Figure 1. The entirety of the domain (Figure 2)
represents the urban core as a grid of 586 x 599
(351,014) cells arranged into 1,326 units or landplots
(room, wall, door, shop, fence, yard, corridor, road,
etc.). When food stocks have been identified during
the census, they are reified and placed in the simulator
as objects.
Figure 1: Detail (31x24 cells, 0.21% of the domain) of
downtown Dodel and the digitization of habitations (one
cell = 1 m
2
).
A Digital Twin Simulator Approach as a Support to Develop an Integrated Observatory of the Epidemic Risk in a Rural Community in
Senegal
137
Figure 2: Diel activity declared replicated in the simulator. The snapshot displays the entire domain being modelled.
A 24h animation is available at https://youtu.be/LXfPxZbK-74.
3.2 Human Activity
Nonetheless, it is mainly with the exhaustive census
of human activities transcribed in the simulator that it
was possible to obtain the digital twin that mimics
diel activity in the city. Indeed, by combining detailed
cartography with a faithful representation of human
activity, we obtain the dynamic environment that
organisms (ticks, mice, cats) must account for in their
own activity.
Figure 2 for instance depicts a snapshot of the
early morning activity recorded in the studied area. At
that time, children leave for secular school in the
south of the village (a), while others are already
present at the Koranic school (b); the central market
begins to bustle (c) with vendors already present in
the shops surrounding the central market (d).
Using this representation, it is possible to simulate
an environment that is close to reality, with periods of
calm (meals, naps, rest) interspersed with areas that
are occasionally active (school, mosque, central
market, etc.). As animal agents (primarily mice)
evolve in response to human activity, the patterns of
activity resulting from their interaction (flee, hide)
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with human presence appear realistic; for instance,
there are significantly more mouse movements in the
village during the middle of the night, even if
movements of mice can still occur occasionally
during the day, which is indeed observed. These
movements are therefore not programmed here but
generated by human activity.
3.3 Integrated Simulation
Field observations related to the presence of ticks,
cats, house mice were analysed and reported on a
static data portal (http://simmasto.org/infos/052).
Observed individuals were coded in the simulator.
Within one standard scenario, the simulated system is
composed of 489 humans, 135 cats, 175 mice, 68
ticks.
The simulator then makes it possible to
specifically examine the various configurations
obtained within the dwellings and the resulting
interactions between agents within rooms. For
instance (Figure 3), it is possible to study how
inhabitants move from the courtyard to their room
according to the time of day, how house mice hide
when human activity falls into the categories "meal",
“movement” and “awake” and how they are free to
roam outside their nests when humans are distant or
in the “rest” category.
Figure 3: Detail (44x53 cells or m
2
, 0.66% of the domain)
of a dwelling including a courtyard and rooms where people
live, as well as food-selling shops on the side of the road,
and in this instance a pregnant female and an adult tick (data
from observation and transcribed in the simulator).
3.4 Detailed Processes Simulation
Finally, the interactions between animals themselves,
such as the reproductive behaviour of house mice
(Figure 4) or the conditions under which ticks can
infect or become infected from mice, can also be
studied in detail (Figure 5).
Figure 4: Study of behaviours and interactions between
house mice within rooms (agents’ label: agent id / target or
desire in the absence of target): in this sequence, a male
(4439) and a female (4436) mouse walk close to a room
walls, the male then perceives the female, identifies it as its
target and moves towards it. In the following sequence,
reproduction can occur, and then the male and pregnant
female resume their independent foraging activity.
Figure 5: Study of behaviours related to the interaction
between vectors and reservoirs. In the example illustrated,
the modelled room contains a mouse nest (704007) where
ticks seek to feed on the mice present. Tick 704084 remains
attached to mouse 13284 as it leaves the nest to feed, while
tick 704082 remains in the nest.
A Digital Twin Simulator Approach as a Support to Develop an Integrated Observatory of the Epidemic Risk in a Rural Community in
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Figure 6: the three benefits of placing a digital twin simulator at the core of a long-term system for monitoring epidemic risk
in an urban setting.
4 DISCUSSION
As part of the development of a multidisciplinary
epidemic risk observatory, we have incrementally
developed a digital twin of the Senegalese village of
Dodel. In the context of successive stages, we
conducted round trips between the field and digital
coding to primarily (i) develop a high-resolution map
of all homes and shared places in the city centre, (ii)
introduce the census of all inhabitants, (iii) sample
and formalise the presence of agents such as house
mice, cats, ticks and bacteria and finally (iv) identify
and code the details of the daily activity of all
inhabitants. The simulator obtained is hence capable
of representing, both globally at the level of the city
centre and locally at the level of rooms, most of the
interactions that can occur in this rural municipality.
The simulator was positioned at the core of the
observatory's operation. At the conclusion of the
process, this approach proved fruitful by contributing
three useful and complementary functionalities
(Figure 6). Following the initial approach, the
simulator constitutes a dynamic and integrated
database of knowledge gathered by all involved
disciplines. By providing agents with behaviours, not
only can the entire system be represented in a unified
manner, but it can also be brought into interaction.
On the other hand, as the simulator is based on a bio-
inspired approach, it is potentially robust to any
improvement even not anticipated during the model's
initial design. For instance, in recent surveys,
additional data were collected at the health post level
on humans with fever, including information about
the nature of the fever. Due to the bio-inspired
approach used to develop the digital twin, such
features can be added and incorporated into the
simulator without calling the model into question.
1. Digital twins have been recognized as platforms
for consensus building among stakeholders
(Okita et al., 2019) which may be the case here
for the simulator produced. Thanks to the high
level of realism provided by the model following
the digital twin approach, the dynamics
generated are straightforward, easily
comprehended, and communicable (movement
of people, behaviour of mice in rooms and shops,
etc.). In a logic known as companion modelling
(Barreteau et al., 2003), the population and local
(mayors, village chiefs) and regional
(department) decision-makers can evaluate or
criticize the results and help propose operational
adjustments to the observatory in response.
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2. As the simulator is based on a data-driven logic,
it may exhibit issues during simulations that can
be analysed to reveal areas or spaces where the
field effort and the collected data are either
insufficient or excessive. Within the framework
of a constant back-and-forth between the field
and the simulator's representation of the results,
the tool constituted by the simulator is therefore
a very useful instrument for guiding the field
survey protocols.
4.1 Calibration Issues
The resulting model incorporates a large number of
distinct actors, each with their own distinct
deliberation and action behaviours. The urban
environment presents additional challenges because
agents must move in a variety of ways: along walls,
in a network of streets, or linearly in rooms; avoiding
numerous obstacles; failing to perceive nearby
objects because walls obscure them, etc. On the other
hand, field-based datasets are abundant, particularly
those pertaining to human activity. This complexity
present challenges for assembly calibration, which
can be linked to (i) data coding (e.g., a person
sleeping in an awkward position in the middle of the
street) or (ii) modelled behaviour (e.g., a hungry cat
eats another cat). In this second category, the object-
oriented and bio-inspired approaches used to develop
the model allow for the resolution of the vast majority
of inconsistencies, but leave room for a few
incoherent behaviours. The identification of aberrant
behaviours is more often than not based on the
observation of simulations that are then corrected.
This is a lengthy process, and the calibration of the
model in this study is still ongoing but it does not
constitute an insurmountable obstacle.
5 CONCLUSION
The process of creating a digital twin of a complex
urban environment is lengthy and delicate.
Nonetheless, once the computer system has
stabilised, one can get a tool with decisive
advantages. The first is to benefit from a dynamic
restitution of knowledge that goes beyond what a
sophisticated multidisciplinary DBMS could provide.
The second is the digital twin's utility as a means of
communication. As an anecdote, during the last
restitution to the village authorities, the interest
generated by the transmission of the results prompted
the village chief to broadcast a message via the
mosque asking for a good reception of scientists by
the population as well as a request to the project team
to make a public restitution of the work conducted to
the population.
This work hence suggests that the digital twin
paradigm can be adapted and applied to complex
social issues such as the management of an
observatory for the monitoring of epidemic risk
involving multiple human-animal actors evolving in
a variety of environments. This approach may
therefore be proposed as an efficient mean to meet the
methodological requirements raised by the EcoHealth
approach.
ACKOWLEDGEMENTS
The study was supported by the French National
Research Institute for Sustainable Development
(IRD), the ‘Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des
Populations (CBGP, UMR no.22 INRAe / IRD /
Cirad / Supagro), the Cerise (grant IRD-FRB
no.AAP-SCEN -20B III) and CEA-MITIC (Univ.
G.Berger, Saint-Louis Sénégal) projects as well as the
ObsMice (West African Small Mammal Observatory
Indicators of Environmental Change) network. We
also wish to thank Y.Niang, M.Kane, N.Sarr, O.Sall,
R.Dia, G.Diatta for their decisive field support and
O.Sall for detailed mapping of the Dodel town.
Finally, we would like to warmly thank the
population and administration of Dodel for their
hospitality and willingness to answer questions
during our numerous surveys.
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