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Affiliation

Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) – Centre for Operational Research and Analysis (CORA), 60 Moodie Drive, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0K2, Canada

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3 Papers

Finite Interval Processes: Simulating Military Operations

Topics: Simulation; OR in National Defense/International Security

Author: Robert Bryce

Affiliation: Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) – Centre for Operational Research and Analysis (CORA), 60 Moodie Drive, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0K2, Canada

Digital Object Identifier: 10.5220/0012424700003639

Proceedings of ICORES 2024, ISBN: 978-989-758-681-1

Quick Abstract

We discuss extending Poisson point processes to finite interval processes, in the context of simulating military operations over time. Conceptually the extension is simple, points are extended to finite duration of length equal to the operations’ duration. We discuss effects of finite duration, namely lowering of set frequencies (and therefore artificially reduced expected demand) due to the extension of points to intervals—and its correction. The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) has a Force Structure Readiness Assessment (FSRA+) Monte Carlo simulation tool that implements a finite interval process, and the results here offer insight on the approach.

A Simulation Tool for Exploring Ammunition Stockpile Dynamics

Topics: Simulation; OR in National Defense/International Security

Authors: Jean-Denis Caron , Robert Bryce and Chad Young

Affiliation: Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) – Centre for Operational Research and Analysis (CORA), 60 Moodie Drive, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0K2, Canada

Digital Object Identifier: 10.5220/0011620800003396

Proceedings of ICORES 2023, ISBN: 978-989-758-627-9

Quick Abstract

The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) uses ammunition of various types for both training and operations. We introduce a Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) model, named Future Event Ammunition Stockpile Tool (FEAST), to explore issues regarding anticipated stockpile drawdown and resupply. Schedules for military training and operations and associated ammunition demands are stochastically defined as inputs to FEAST, as are budgets, various reorder policies and other inventory management parameters. Outputs of FEAST enable statistical characterization of various performance attributes, including anticipated fulfillment of demands and costs over time. FEAST is designed to be flexibly used by practitioners to answer “what if” type questions. This paper provides an overview of FEAST and illustrates a simplified scenario where a single nature of ammunition is required to simultaneously fulfill demands from several training types and military missions, for which several resupply options are to be explored.

Estimating Workforce Attrition Rate Parameters: A Controlled Comparison

Topics: Simulation; OR in National Defense/International Security

Authors: Robert Bryce and Jillian Henderson

Affiliation: Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC)-Centre for Operational Research and Analysis (CORA), Department of National Defence (DND), 60 Moodie Drive, Ottawa, Canada

Digital Object Identifier: 10.5220/0011748600003396

Proceedings of ICORES 2023, ISBN: 978-989-758-627-9

Quick Abstract

Here we consider workforce attrition rate parameter estimators (three continuous, three discrete), demonstrating that they originate in the Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) describing a memoryless survival time population. This demonstration reveals how to craft estimators and reason about them. Setting up controlled numerical experiments we test this family of estimators to determine their relative performance, both in steady state and under dynamic change of population level. Additionally, we find the analytic expressions for the residual error of the estimators which provides insight into their bias properties. Our results suggest that, out of common simple estimators, the two-point average population and half-intake estimators are robust choices.