MONTHLY FLOW ESTIMATION USING ELMAN NEURAL NETWORKS

Luiz Biondi Neto, Pedro Henrique Gouvêa Coelho, Maria Luiza Fernandes Velloso, João Carlos C. B. Soares de Mello, Lidia Angulo Meza

Abstract

This paper investigates the application of partially recurrent artificial neural networks (ANN) in the flow estimation for São Francisco River that feeds the hydroelectric power plant of Sobradinho. An Elman neural network was used suitably arranged to receive samples of the flow time series data available for São Francisco River shifted by one month. For that, the neural network input had a delay loop that included several sets of inputs separated in periods of five years monthly shifted. The considered neural network had three hidden layers. There is a feedback between the output and the input of the first hidden layer that enables the neural network to present temporal capabilities useful in tracking time variations. The data used in the application concern to the measured São Francisco river flow time series from 1931 to 1996, in a total of 65 years from what 60 were used for training and 5 for testing. The obtained results indicate that the Elman neural network is suitable to estimate the river flow for 5 year periods monthly. The average estimation error was less than 0.2 %.

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Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Biondi Neto L., Henrique Gouvêa Coelho P., Luiza Fernandes Velloso M., Carlos C. B. Soares de Mello J. and Angulo Meza L. (2004). MONTHLY FLOW ESTIMATION USING ELMAN NEURAL NETWORKS . In Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 2: ICEIS, ISBN 972-8865-00-7, pages 153-158. DOI: 10.5220/0002610101530158


in Bibtex Style

@conference{iceis04,
author={Luiz Biondi Neto and Pedro Henrique Gouvêa Coelho and Maria Luiza Fernandes Velloso and João Carlos C. B. Soares de Mello and Lidia Angulo Meza},
title={MONTHLY FLOW ESTIMATION USING ELMAN NEURAL NETWORKS},
booktitle={Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 2: ICEIS,},
year={2004},
pages={153-158},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0002610101530158},
isbn={972-8865-00-7},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 2: ICEIS,
TI - MONTHLY FLOW ESTIMATION USING ELMAN NEURAL NETWORKS
SN - 972-8865-00-7
AU - Biondi Neto L.
AU - Henrique Gouvêa Coelho P.
AU - Luiza Fernandes Velloso M.
AU - Carlos C. B. Soares de Mello J.
AU - Angulo Meza L.
PY - 2004
SP - 153
EP - 158
DO - 10.5220/0002610101530158