PREDICTING THE ARRIVAL OF EMERGENT PATIENT BY AFFINITY SET

Yuh-Wen Chen, Moussa Larbani, Chao-Wen Chen

Abstract

Predicting the time series of emergent patient arrival is valuable in monitoring/tracking the daily patient flow because these efforts keep doctors alarmed in advance. A prediction problem of the time series generated by actual arrival of emergent patient is considered here. Traditionally, such a problem is analyzed by moving average method, regression method, exponential smoothing method or some existed evolutionary methods. However, we propose a new affinity model to accomplish this goal. Our data of time series is actually recorded from hour to hour (hourly data) for three days: the data of the first two days are used to generate/train prediction model; after that, the data of the final/third day is used to test our prediction results. Two types of model: affinity model and neural network model are used for comparing their performances. Interestingly, the affinity model performs better prediction results. This hints there could be a special pattern within the time series generated by actual arrival of emergent patient.

References

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Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Chen Y., Larbani M. and Chen C. (2008). PREDICTING THE ARRIVAL OF EMERGENT PATIENT BY AFFINITY SET . In Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 4: CIAS, (ICEIS 2008) ISBN 978-989-8111-39-5, pages 273-277. DOI: 10.5220/0001723402730277


in Bibtex Style

@conference{cias08,
author={Yuh-Wen Chen and Moussa Larbani and Chao-Wen Chen},
title={PREDICTING THE ARRIVAL OF EMERGENT PATIENT BY AFFINITY SET},
booktitle={Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 4: CIAS, (ICEIS 2008)},
year={2008},
pages={273-277},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0001723402730277},
isbn={978-989-8111-39-5},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 4: CIAS, (ICEIS 2008)
TI - PREDICTING THE ARRIVAL OF EMERGENT PATIENT BY AFFINITY SET
SN - 978-989-8111-39-5
AU - Chen Y.
AU - Larbani M.
AU - Chen C.
PY - 2008
SP - 273
EP - 277
DO - 10.5220/0001723402730277