# MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF BIRD FLU OUTBREAK WITHIN A POULTRY FARM

### Tertia Delia Nova, Herman Mawengkang, Masaji Watanabe

#### Abstract

Outbreak of avian influenza within a poultry farm is studied mathematically. A system of two nonlinear ordinary differential equations is introduced as a model. Unknown variables of these differential equations are populations of susceptible birds and infected birds. Analysis of the model shows that the most effective measure against outbreak of avian influenza within a poultry farm is a constant removal of infected birds, and that removal of infected birds can solely prevent an outbreak. The analysis also shows that vaccination is effective in conjunction with removal of infected birds, and that vaccination can not prevent an outbreak without the removal of infected birds.

#### References

- Breytenbach, J. (2005). Vaccination and biosecurity is the key. Poultry World; ProQuest Agriculture Journals, 159(4):33.
- E. A. Coddington, N. L. (1984). Theory of Ordinary Differential Equations. Robert E. Krieger Publishing Company, Malabar, Florida. Reprint. Originally published: McGraw-Hill, New York, 1955.
- Lambert, J. D. (1973). Computational Methods in Ordinary Differential Equations. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
- R. K. Upadhyay, N. Kumari, V. S. H. R. (2008). Modeling the spreade of bird flu and predicting outbreak diversity. Nonlinear Analysis, 9:1638-1648.
- S. Iwami, Y. Takeuchi, X. L. (2007). Avian-human influenza epidemic model. Mathematical Biosciences, 207:1-25.

#### Paper Citation

#### in Harvard Style

Delia Nova T., Mawengkang H. and Watanabe M. (2010). **MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF BIRD FLU OUTBREAK WITHIN A POULTRY FARM** . In *Proceedings of the First International Conference on Bioinformatics - Volume 1: BIOINFORMATICS, (BIOSTEC 2010)* ISBN 978-989-674-019-1, pages 96-101. DOI: 10.5220/0002694700960101

#### in Bibtex Style

@conference{bioinformatics10,

author={Tertia Delia Nova and Herman Mawengkang and Masaji Watanabe},

title={MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF BIRD FLU OUTBREAK WITHIN A POULTRY FARM},

booktitle={Proceedings of the First International Conference on Bioinformatics - Volume 1: BIOINFORMATICS, (BIOSTEC 2010)},

year={2010},

pages={96-101},

publisher={SciTePress},

organization={INSTICC},

doi={10.5220/0002694700960101},

isbn={978-989-674-019-1},

}

#### in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the First International Conference on Bioinformatics - Volume 1: BIOINFORMATICS, (BIOSTEC 2010)

TI - MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF BIRD FLU OUTBREAK WITHIN A POULTRY FARM

SN - 978-989-674-019-1

AU - Delia Nova T.

AU - Mawengkang H.

AU - Watanabe M.

PY - 2010

SP - 96

EP - 101

DO - 10.5220/0002694700960101