# A COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION MODEL AND INTELLIGENT PREDICTION METHOD OF WATER BLOOM

### Zaiwen Liu, Xiaoyi Wang, Wei Wei

#### Abstract

An integrated evaluative function and intelligent prediction model for water bloom in lakes based on least squares support vector machine( LSSVM) is proposed in this paper, in which main influence factor of outbreak of water bloom is analyzed by rough set theory. First the study of the function involves three aspects: algal average activation energy of photosynthesis, integrated nutritional status index, and transparency, which are considered from the microcosmic level., the macroscopic level and the intuitionistic level respectively. The values of the function are classified properly. At the meantime, the weight value of each evaluative parameter is determined objectively, via the theory of multiple criteria decision making,. By analyzing and calculating the experimental data, the obtained values of the function and the classification results can be verified using the data of the samples. Good agreement is obtained between the results and the fact. The results of simulation and application show that: LSSVM improves the algorithm of support vector machine (SVM).; it has long-term prediction period, strong generalization ability， high prediction accuracy; and needs a small amount of sample and this model provides an efficient new way for medium-term water bloom prediction.

#### References

- Jin Xiangcan, Li zhaochun, Zheng Sufang et., 2004. Growth characteristics of microcystis aeruginosa. Environmental Science Research

#### Paper Citation

#### in Harvard Style

Liu Z., Wang X. and Wei W. (2011). **A COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION MODEL AND INTELLIGENT PREDICTION METHOD OF WATER BLOOM** . In *Proceedings of the International Conference on Neural Computation Theory and Applications - Volume 1: NCTA, (IJCCI 2011)* ISBN 978-989-8425-84-3, pages 391-394. DOI: 10.5220/0003682703910394

#### in Bibtex Style

@conference{ncta11,

author={Zaiwen Liu and Xiaoyi Wang and Wei Wei},

title={A COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION MODEL AND INTELLIGENT PREDICTION METHOD OF WATER BLOOM},

booktitle={Proceedings of the International Conference on Neural Computation Theory and Applications - Volume 1: NCTA, (IJCCI 2011)},

year={2011},

pages={391-394},

publisher={SciTePress},

organization={INSTICC},

doi={10.5220/0003682703910394},

isbn={978-989-8425-84-3},

}

#### in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the International Conference on Neural Computation Theory and Applications - Volume 1: NCTA, (IJCCI 2011)

TI - A COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION MODEL AND INTELLIGENT PREDICTION METHOD OF WATER BLOOM

SN - 978-989-8425-84-3

AU - Liu Z.

AU - Wang X.

AU - Wei W.

PY - 2011

SP - 391

EP - 394

DO - 10.5220/0003682703910394