Using Discrete-Event Simulation to Forecast the Volume of Hospital Emergency Services to be delivered at the Regional Level

Bożena Mielczarek

Abstract

This paper describes a discrete-event simulation model to estimate the volume of services to be provided by emergency departments located in one sub-region of Lower Silesia, the southernmost province in Poland. Forecasts of the predicted categories of services to be delivered in the following year in emergency departments in the region are formulated based on the simulated demand level. The process of input data analysis is described in detail, and basic assumptions for the simulation model are formulated. The results provide some insights into the relation between sub-regional demographic trends and population needs in relation to hospital emergency arrivals.

References

  1. Abo-Hamad, W. and A. Arisha. 2013. “Simulation-based framework to improve patient experience in an emergency department.” European Journal of Operational Research 224: 154-166.
  2. Ahmed, M. A. and T. M. Alkhamis. 2009. “Simulation optimization for an emergency department healthcare unit in Kuwait.” European Journal of Operational Research 198:936-942.
  3. Brailsford , S. C., P. R. Harper, B. Patel, and M. Pitt. 2009. “An analysis of the academic literature on simulation and modelling in health care.” Journal of Simulation 3:130-140.
  4. Duguay, Ch. and F. Chetouane. 2007. “Modeling and improving emergency department systems using discrete event simulation.” Simulation 83(4):311-320.
  5. Fone, D., S. Hollinghurst, M. Temple, A. Round, N. Lester, A. Weightman, K. Roberts, E. Coyle, G. Bevan, and S. Palmer. 2003. “Systematic review of the use and value of computer simulation modelling in population health and health care delivery.” Journal of Public Health Medicine 25 (4), 325-335.
  6. Jun, J. B., S. H. Jacobson, and J. R. Swisher. 1999. “Application of discrete-event simulation in health care clinics: A survey.” Journal of the Operational Research Society, 50(2), 109-123.
  7. Hulshof, P. J. H., N. Kortbeek, R. J. Boucherie, E. W. Hans, and P. J. M. Bakker. 2012. “Taxonomic classification of planning decisions in health care: a structured review of the state of the art in OR/MS.” Health Systems 1:129-175.
  8. Law, A. M. and W. D. Kelton. 2000. Simulation Modelling and Analysis. McGraw-Hill Higher Education, Singapore, 3rd edition.
  9. Mielczarek, B. and J. Uzialko-Mydlikowska. 2012a. “Application of computer simulation modeling in the health care sector: a survey.” Simulation. Transactions of the Society for Modeling and Simulation International 88(2):197-216.
  10. Mielczarek, B. and J. Uzialko-Mydlikowska. 2012b. „Using simulation to forecast the demand for hospital emergency services at the regional level.” In Proceedings of the 2012 Winter Simulation Conference, Edited by C. Laroque, J. Himmelspach, R. Pasupathy, O. Rose, and A.M. Uhrmacher.
  11. Paul, S. A. and M. C. Reddy. 2010. “A systematic review of simulation studies investigating emergency department overcrowding.” Simulation 86(8-9):559- 571.
  12. Paul, J. A. and L. Lin. 2011. “Models for improving patient throughput and waiting at hospital emergency departments.” Administration of Emergency Medicine 43(6):1119-1126.
  13. Zeng, Z., X. Ma, Y. Hu, J. Li, and D. Bryant. 2012. “A simulation study to improve quality of care in the emergency department of a community hospital.” Journal of Emergency Nursing 38(4):322-328.
Download


Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Mielczarek B. (2013). Using Discrete-Event Simulation to Forecast the Volume of Hospital Emergency Services to be delivered at the Regional Level . In Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH, ISBN 978-989-8565-69-3, pages 197-203. DOI: 10.5220/0004583601970203


in Bibtex Style

@conference{simultech13,
author={Bożena Mielczarek},
title={Using Discrete-Event Simulation to Forecast the Volume of Hospital Emergency Services to be delivered at the Regional Level},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH,},
year={2013},
pages={197-203},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0004583601970203},
isbn={978-989-8565-69-3},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH,
TI - Using Discrete-Event Simulation to Forecast the Volume of Hospital Emergency Services to be delivered at the Regional Level
SN - 978-989-8565-69-3
AU - Mielczarek B.
PY - 2013
SP - 197
EP - 203
DO - 10.5220/0004583601970203