Quantitative Models Evaluating the Effect Climate Change Effects on Tourism - State of the Art

Jaume Rosselló


In a context of climate change, many destinations are considering what effects can be predicted on the tourist demand and how they should be tackled. This work analyses the most relevant perspectives presented in the literature evaluating the effect of climate change on tourism. A review is made by showing the results that rise from a triple point of view: the consideration of physical changes, the analysis of the tourist attractiveness through climatic indexes and modeling tourism demand. The review suggests that, although some methodologies are on a primary stage of development, results from the different perspectives agree in presenting a similar map of the main affected areas (positively and negatively) in terms of tourism demand and/or tourism attractiveness.


  1. Agnew, M., & Palutikof, J. (2006). Impacts of short-term climate variability in the UK on demand for domestic and international tourism. Climate Research, 21: 109- 120.
  2. Álvarez, M., & Rosselló, J. (2010). Forecasting British tourist arrivals to Balearic Islands using meteorological variables. Tourism Economics, 16: 153-168.
  3. Amelung, B., & Moreno, A. (2012). Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in Europe: results of the PESETA project. Climatic Change 112: 83-100.
  4. Amelung, B., & Viner, D. (2006). Mediterranean Tourism: Exploring the Future with the Tourism Climatic Index. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14: 349-366.
  5. Amelung, B., Nicholls, S., & Viner, D. (2007). Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality. Journal of Travel Research 45: 285-296.
  6. Bigano, A., Hamilton, J. M., & Tol, R. S. J. (2006). The impact of climate holiday destination choice. Climatic Change, 76, 389-406.
  7. Bigano. A, Hamilton, J. M., Maddison, D. J., & R. S. J. Tol (2006). Predicting tourism flows under climate change an editorial comment on Gössling and Hall (2006). Climatic Change, 79:175-180.
  8. Breiling, M., & Charamza, P. (1999). The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing: a regionalised model for Austrian snow conditions. Regional Environmental Change, 1: 4-14.
  9. Bujosa, A., & Rosselló, J. (2013). Climate change and summer mass tourism: the case of Spanish domestic tourism. Climatic Change 117: 363 - 375.
  10. CIA, Central Intelligence Agency (2012). The World Factbook. Accessed 19th June 2012 at: https:// www.cia.gov/library/publications /the-world-fact book/fields/2012.html
  11. Crouch, G. I. (1994). The Study of International Tourism Demand: A Survey of Practice Journal of Travel Research, 32: 41-55.
  12. Elsasser, H., & Messerli, P. (2001). The vulnerability of the snow industry in the Swiss Alps. Journal of Mountain Research and Development, 21: 335-339.
  13. Englebert, E. T., McDermott, C., & Kleinheinz, G. T. (2008). Effects of the nuisance algae, Cladophora, on Escherichia coli at recreational beaches in Wisconsin. Science of the Total Environment, 404, 10-17.
  14. Eugenio-Martín, J. L., & Campos-Soria, J. A. (2010). Climate in the region of origin and destination choice in outbound tourism demand. Tourism Management, 31: 744 -751
  15. Eugenio-Martín, J. L., (2003). Modelling determinants of tourism demand as a five-stage process: A discrete choice methodological approach. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 4(4):341-354.
  16. Goh, C. (2012). Exploring impact of climate on tourism demand. Annals of Tourism Research 39: 1859-1883.
  17. Gössling, S., & Hall, C. (2006). Uncertainties in predicting tourist flows under scenarios of climate change. Climatic Change, 79: 163-173.
  18. Gössling, S., Bredberg, M., Randow, M., Sandström, E., & Svensson, P. (2006) Tourist Perceptions of Climate Change: A Study of International Tourists in Zanzibar. Current Issues in Tourism, 9: 419-435
  19. Gössling, S., Lindén, O., Helmersson, J., Liljenberg, J., & Quarm, S. (2007). Diving and global environmental change: a Mauritius case study. In B. Garrod & S. Gössling (Eds.), New frontiers in marine tourism. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
  20. Gössling, S., Scott, D., Hall, C. M., Ceron, J.P., & Dubois, G. (2012). Uncertainties in predicting tourist flows under scenarios of climate change. Annals of Tourism Research, 39: 36-58.
  21. Hamilton, J., & Tol, R.S.J. (2007). The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: A simulation study. Regional Environmental Change, 7: 161-172.
  22. Hamilton, J. M., Maddison, D., & Tol, R.S.J. (2005a). Climate change and international tourism: A simulation study. Global Environmental Change, 15: 253-266.
  23. Hamilton, J. M., Maddison, D., and Tol, R.S.J. (2005b). The effects on climate change on international tourism. Climate Research, 29: 245-254.
  24. Harrison, S. J., Winterbottom, S.J., and Shephard, C. (1999). The potential effects of climate change on the Scottish tourist industry. Tourism Management, 20: 203-211.
  25. Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Mumby, P. J., Hooten, A. J., Steneck, R. S., Greenfield, P., Gomez, E., Harvell, D. R., Sale, P. F., Edwards, A. J., Caldeira, K. Knowlton, N., Eakin, C. M., Iglesias Prieto, R., Muthiga, N., Bradbury, R. H., Dubi, A. & Hatziolos, M. E. (2007). Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification. Science, 318: 1737-1742.
  26. IPCC, Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change (2007). Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4). Working Group II Report "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability".
  27. Kulendran, N., & Dwyer, L. (2012). Modeling seasonal variation in tourism flows with climate variables. Tourism Analysis, 17: 121-137.
  28. Lancaster, K.L. (1966). A New Approach to Consumer Theory. Journal of Political Economy, 74(2): 132-157.
  29. Li, G., Song, H., & Witt, S. F. (2005). Recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting. Journal of Travel Research, 44, 82-99.
  30. Lim, C. (1999). A Meta analysis review of International tourism demand. Journal of Travel Research, 37, 273- 284.
  31. Lin, T.P., & Matzarakis, A. (2011). Tourism climate .information based on human thermal perception in Taiwan and Eastern China. Tourism Management, 32: 492-500.
  32. Maddison, D. (2001). In search of warmer climates? The impact of climate change on flows of British tourist. Climatic Change, 49: 193-208.
  33. Marcussen, C.H. (2011). Understanding Destination Choices of German Travelers. Tourism Analysis, 16: 649-662.
  34. Matzarakis, A., Mayer, H. & Iziomon, M. G. (1999). Applications of a universal thermal index: Physiological equivalent temperature. International Journal of Biometeorology 43(2):76-84.
  35. Mieczkowski, Z. (1985). The tourism climatic index: A method of evaluating world climates for tourism. Canadian Geographer, 29 : 220-233.
  36. Moreno, A. & Amelung, B. (2009). Climate Change and Tourist Comfort on Europe's Beaches in Summer: A Reassessment. Coastal Management, 37: 550-568.
  37. Morgan, R., Gatell, E., Junyent, R., Micallef, A., Ozhan, E., & Williams, A. T. (2000). An improved user-based beach climate index. Journal of Coastal Conservation, 6: 41-50.
  38. Morley, C. L. (1992). A Microeconomic Theory of International Tourism Demand. Annals of Tourism Research, 19: 250-267.
  39. Nicholls, R. J., Marinova, N., Lowe, J. A., Brown, S., Vellinga, P., Gusmão, D., Hinkel, J. & Tol, R. S. J. (2011) Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4°C world' in the twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 369: 161-181.
  40. Otero-Giráldez, M.S., Álvarez-Díaz, M., & GonzálezGómez M. (2012) Estimating the long-run effects of socioeconomic and meteorological factors on the domestic tourism demand for Galicia (Spain). Tourism Management, 33: 1301-1308.
  41. Papatheodorou, A., Rosselló, J., & Xiao, H. (2010). Global Economic Crisis and Tourism: Consequences and Perspectives. Journal of Travel Research, 49: 39- 45.
  42. Purcell, J. E. (2012). Jellyfish and ctenophore blooms coincide with human proliferations and environmental perturbations. Annual Review of Marine Science, 4: 209-235.
  43. Rosselló, J.; Riera, A., & Cardenas, V (2011). The impact of weather variability on British outbound flows. Climatic Change, 105: 281-292.
  44. Rosselló, J., and Santana, M. (2012). Climate change and global international tourism: An evaluation for different scenarios. Working paper: Departament d'Economia Aplicada. Universitat de les Illes Balears, Palma.
  45. Rosselló, J. (2011). The impact of the NAO index on European Airline Transit. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 16: 183-187.
  46. Rotmans, J., Hulme, M. & Downing, T. E. (1994). Climate change implications for Europe. Global Environmental Change, 4: 97-124.
  47. Scott, D., McBoyle, G., & Schwartzentruber, M. (2004). Climate change and the distribution of climatic resources for tourism in North America. Climate Research, 27: 105-117.
  48. Scott, D., McBoyle, G., Minogue, A., & Mills, B. (2006). Climate Change and the Sustainability of Ski-based Tourism in Eastern North America: A Reassessment. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14: 376-398.
  49. Song, H., & Li, G. (2008). Tourism demand modelling and forecasting -A review of recent research. Tourism Management, 29: 203-220.
  50. Subak, S., Palutikof, J., Agnew, M., Watson, S., Bentham, C., Cannel, M., Hulme, M. McNally, S., Thornes, J., Waughray, D., & Woods, J. (2000). The impact of the anomalous weather of 1995 on the UK Economy. Climatic Change, 44: 1-26.
  51. Tol, R.S.J., & Walsh, S. (2012) The Impact of Climate on Tourist Destination Choice. Working paper: ERSI. Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin.
  52. WTTC, World Travel and Tourism Council (2012) Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2012: WORLD. WTTC: London.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Rosselló J. (2013). Quantitative Models Evaluating the Effect Climate Change Effects on Tourism - State of the Art . In Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCEC, (SIMULTECH 2013) ISBN 978-989-8565-69-3, pages 479-488. DOI: 10.5220/0004591404790488

in Bibtex Style

author={Jaume Rosselló},
title={Quantitative Models Evaluating the Effect Climate Change Effects on Tourism - State of the Art},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCEC, (SIMULTECH 2013)},

in EndNote Style

JO - Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCEC, (SIMULTECH 2013)
TI - Quantitative Models Evaluating the Effect Climate Change Effects on Tourism - State of the Art
SN - 978-989-8565-69-3
AU - Rosselló J.
PY - 2013
SP - 479
EP - 488
DO - 10.5220/0004591404790488