Natural Handling of Uncertainties in Fuzzy Climate Models

Carlos Gay García, Oscar Sánchez Meneses

Abstract

The wide range of the IPCC emission scenarios and the corresponding concentrations, forcings and temperature obtained with the use of the Magicc/Scengen Model are substituted by linearly increasing emissions that preserve the ranges of the values for the concentrations forcings and temperatures. In fact IPCC values are comprised within the values of the linear emissions. These allow the identification of simple relationships that are translated to fuzzy rules that in turn conform the fuzzy model. The sources of uncertainty that the model permits to explore are: the uncertainty due to not knowing what the emissions are going to be in the future, the one related to the climate sensitivity of the models (this has to do with different parameterizations of processes used in the models) and the uncertainties in the temperature maps produced by the models. Here we produce maps corresponding to 1, 2, 3, etc., degrees centigrade of temperature increase and discuss the timing of exceeding them. Therefore the argument instead of talking about the uncertainty in temperature at a certain date becomes about the uncertainty in the date certain temperature will be reached. The timing becomes another uncertainty.

References

  1. Gay, C., Sánchez, O., Martínez-López, B., Nébot, Á., Estrada, F. 2013. Fuzzy Models: Easier to Understand and an Easier Way to Handle Uncertainties in Climate Change Research. In: Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications. Volume Editor(s): Pina, N., Kacprzyk, J. and Filipe, J. In the series "Advances in Intelligent and Soft Computing". Springer- Verlag GmbH Berlin Heidelberg (in review).
  2. IPCC-WGI, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)] Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.
  3. Wigley T. M. L., 2008. MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3: User Manual (version 2). NCAR, Boulder, CO. 80 pp. (on line: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/wigley/magicc/)
  4. Zadeh, L. A. 1965. Fuzzy Sets: Information and Control. Vol. 8(3) p. 338-353.
Download


Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Gay García C. and Sánchez Meneses O. (2013). Natural Handling of Uncertainties in Fuzzy Climate Models . In Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCEC, (SIMULTECH 2013) ISBN 978-989-8565-69-3, pages 537-544. DOI: 10.5220/0004633605370544


in Bibtex Style

@conference{msccec13,
author={Carlos Gay García and Oscar Sánchez Meneses},
title={Natural Handling of Uncertainties in Fuzzy Climate Models},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCEC, (SIMULTECH 2013)},
year={2013},
pages={537-544},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0004633605370544},
isbn={978-989-8565-69-3},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCEC, (SIMULTECH 2013)
TI - Natural Handling of Uncertainties in Fuzzy Climate Models
SN - 978-989-8565-69-3
AU - Gay García C.
AU - Sánchez Meneses O.
PY - 2013
SP - 537
EP - 544
DO - 10.5220/0004633605370544