A Fuzzy Cognitive Map System to Explore Certain Scenarios on the Cyprus Banking System

Maria Papaioannou, Costas Neocleous, Charalambos Papageorgiou, Christos N. Schizas

Abstract

The model of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) allows a user to investigate how the influencing parameters of a cause-effect system behave under the implementation of desired scenario. Human knowledge and experience is used to define the structure and the parameters of a FCM model. This paper proposes a methodology which smoothly directs the steps that the experts should take in building an FCM system in order to reduce the subjectivity which characterizes such expert systems. Furthermore, an update rule for the parameters during the simulation phase is presented. Finally, the novel FCM construction methodology and the proposed FCM update rule are tested on a real-life system to investigate the repercussions of the combination of the Greek private sector involvement (PSI) with the decrease of people’s confidence towards the Cyprus banking system. The results resemble what actually happened to the Cyprus economy a short period after the implementation of the Greek PSI.

References

  1. Andreou, A., Mateou, N. & Zombanakis, G. 2005, Soft computing for crisis management and political decision making: the use of genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps, In Soft Computing - A Fusion of Foundations, Methodologies and Applications.
  2. Carvalho, J. 2013, On the semantics and the use of fuzzy cognitive maps and dynamic cognitive maps in social sciences, In Fuzzy Sets and Systems.
  3. Koulouriotis, D., Diakoulakis, I. & Emiris, D. 2001, A fuzzy cognitive map-based stock market model: synthesis, analysis and experimental results, In FUZZIEEE 7801, The 10th IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems.
  4. Papageorgiou, E. 2011, Learning Algorithms for Fuzzy Cognitive Maps---A Review Study, In SMCS, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews.
  5. Papaioannou, M., Neocleous, C., Papageorgiou, C. & Schizas, C. 2013, A fuzzy cognitive map model of the repercussions of greek PSI on cypriot economy, In CINTI'13, 14th IEEE International Symposium on Computational Intelligence and Informatics.
  6. Papaioannou, M., Neocleous, C. & Schizas, C. 2013, A fuzzy cognitive map model for estimating the repercussions of Greek PSI on Cypriot bank branches in Greece, In AIAI2013, 9th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications and Innovations.
  7. Stach, W., Kurgan, L. & Pedrycz, W. 2010, Expert-Based and Computational Methods for Developing Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: Advances in Theory, Methodologies, Tools and Applications, Springer. Chennai, 1st edition.
  8. Stylios, C. & Groumpos, P. 2004, Modeling Complex Systems Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, In SMCS, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part A:Systems and Humans.
Download


Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Papaioannou M., Neocleous C., Papageorgiou C. and Schizas C. (2014). A Fuzzy Cognitive Map System to Explore Certain Scenarios on the Cyprus Banking System . In Proceedings of the International Conference on Fuzzy Computation Theory and Applications - Volume 1: FCTA, (IJCCI 2014) ISBN 978-989-758-053-6, pages 103-110. DOI: 10.5220/0005039701030110


in Bibtex Style

@conference{fcta14,
author={Maria Papaioannou and Costas Neocleous and Charalambos Papageorgiou and Christos N. Schizas},
title={A Fuzzy Cognitive Map System to Explore Certain Scenarios on the Cyprus Banking System},
booktitle={Proceedings of the International Conference on Fuzzy Computation Theory and Applications - Volume 1: FCTA, (IJCCI 2014)},
year={2014},
pages={103-110},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0005039701030110},
isbn={978-989-758-053-6},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the International Conference on Fuzzy Computation Theory and Applications - Volume 1: FCTA, (IJCCI 2014)
TI - A Fuzzy Cognitive Map System to Explore Certain Scenarios on the Cyprus Banking System
SN - 978-989-758-053-6
AU - Papaioannou M.
AU - Neocleous C.
AU - Papageorgiou C.
AU - Schizas C.
PY - 2014
SP - 103
EP - 110
DO - 10.5220/0005039701030110