GIS-based Backcasting - A Method for Parameterisation of Sustainable Spatial Planning and Resource Management

Eva Haslauer, Thomas Blaschke, Markus Biberacher


Backcasting, if used as a decision support and planning method, starts from a desired future state or vision and simulates backwards until present time. During the model run, which goes backwards in time, development paths are created. They expose which steps have to be taken in future to reach the desired state. Besides, milestone scenarios are created as outputs that represent interim goals. The paper at hand proposes an automated, GISbased backcasting model, since backcasting so far has only been applied in workshops or as theoretical framework. Until now no spatially explicit backcasting model has been set up. The proposed backcasting model first creates a future scenario utilizing an Agent Based Model approach. Afterwards the model simulates backwards implemented as a Cellular Automaton. This is realized in a Python script and linked to the Open Source GIS software Quantum GIS. The general model is applied to a case study in Salzburg, Austria. The topic concerns sustainable spatial planning. The results of the model run show in time steps a successful backcasting of land-use classes from a future state back until present time.


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Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Haslauer E., Blaschke T. and Biberacher M. (2014). GIS-based Backcasting - A Method for Parameterisation of Sustainable Spatial Planning and Resource Management . In Doctoral Consortium - DCSIMULTECH, (SIMULTECH 2014) ISBN Not Available, pages 3-8

in Bibtex Style

author={Eva Haslauer and Thomas Blaschke and Markus Biberacher},
title={GIS-based Backcasting - A Method for Parameterisation of Sustainable Spatial Planning and Resource Management},
booktitle={Doctoral Consortium - DCSIMULTECH, (SIMULTECH 2014)},
isbn={Not Available},

in EndNote Style

JO - Doctoral Consortium - DCSIMULTECH, (SIMULTECH 2014)
TI - GIS-based Backcasting - A Method for Parameterisation of Sustainable Spatial Planning and Resource Management
SN - Not Available
AU - Haslauer E.
AU - Blaschke T.
AU - Biberacher M.
PY - 2014
SP - 3
EP - 8
DO -