Stabilizing Global Temperature Through a Fuzzy Control on CO2 Emissions

Carlos Gay-Garcia, Bernardo Bastien

Abstract

In this research, we generated a fuzzy control of carbon emissions that acts increasing or decreasing the representative concentration pathway emissions proposed by the IPCC, in order to obtain a CO2 path that would stabilize the global average surface temperature to a desired level. We used a simple linear climate model that is driven primary by the Carbon emissions. We made simulations under the four RCPs activating the control at different times, which give us a broad knowledge on when is possible to stabilize the temperature, based in the current emissions path. We conclude that taking action earlier (via fuzzy control) will lead not only to reach stabilization, but also, in some cases, to have economic growth allowing to increase emissions at some points in time. Activating the control very late will initiate an oscillation on temperature which will include not only a reduction of emissions but also a necessary anthropogenic net carbon sequestration. This instrument is a common ground where specialists in diverse areas of climate change could contribute in order to set the parameters that we should explore and simulate so that the we can make the best decisions.

References

  1. Boden, T. A., Marland, G., and Andres, R. J. (2013). Global, regional, and national fossil-fuel co2 emissions.
  2. Javadikia, P., Tabatabaeefar, A., Omid, M., Alimardani, R., and Fathi, M. (2009). Evaluation of intelligent greenhouse climate control system, based fuzzy logic in relation to conventional systems. In Artificial Intelligence and Computational Intelligence, 2009. AICI 7809. International Conference on, volume 4, pages 146-150.
  3. King, D. (2011). ”copnhagen and cancun”, internationl climate change negotiations: Key lessons and next steps. Smith School of Enterpise and the Environment, University of Oxford, :12.
  4. Maier-Reimer, E. and Hasselman, K. (1987). Transport and storage of co2 in the ocean - an inorganic oceancirculation carbon cycle model. Clim Dynam, (2):63- 90.
  5. Martinez-Lopez, B. and Gay-Garcia, C. (2011). Fuzzy control of co2 emissions. Proceedings: Eigth International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery.
  6. NASA (2014). Giss surface temperature analysis (gistemp). giss.nasa.gov.
  7. Parry, N., Palutikof, J., Hanson, C., and Lowe, J. (2008). Squaring up to reality. Nature Reports Climate Change, :68-71.
  8. Tahvonen, O., Von Storch, H., and Von Storch, J. (1994). Economic efficency of co2 reduction programs. Clim Res, (4):127-141.
  9. Tong, R. (1977). A control engineering review of fuzzy systems. Automatica, 13(6):559 - 569.
Download


Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Gay-Garcia C. and Bastien B. (2015). Stabilizing Global Temperature Through a Fuzzy Control on CO2 Emissions . In Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCES, (SIMULTECH 2015) ISBN 978-989-758-120-5, pages 526-531


in Bibtex Style

@conference{mscces15,
author={Carlos Gay-Garcia and Bernardo Bastien},
title={Stabilizing Global Temperature Through a Fuzzy Control on CO2 Emissions},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCES, (SIMULTECH 2015)},
year={2015},
pages={526-531},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={},
isbn={978-989-758-120-5},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCES, (SIMULTECH 2015)
TI - Stabilizing Global Temperature Through a Fuzzy Control on CO2 Emissions
SN - 978-989-758-120-5
AU - Gay-Garcia C.
AU - Bastien B.
PY - 2015
SP - 526
EP - 531
DO -