Impact of Population Ageing on Hospital Demand

Bożena Mielczarek, Jacek Zabawa

Abstract

This paper explores the consequences of demographic changes on future access to hospital beds. It is based on the situation in a Polish administrative region called the Wrocław Region (WR). The aim of the paper is to quantify the impact of population ageing on hospital demand with particular emphasis on neurological patients. A computer simulation model was used to project the population evolution during the period 2016-2030 and forecast the number of neurological patients to be admitted to the WR hospitals. We found that the growth of the WR population will have a large impact on the number of elderly patients, including persons with diagnosed neurological disorders. The simulation experiments predict a continuous rise in the demand, and the ageing alone will increase the number of neurological patients in WR, on average, by 8.5 % between 2016 and 2030.

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Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Zabawa J. (2018). Impact of Population Ageing on Hospital Demand.In Proceedings of 8th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH, ISBN 978-989-758-323-0, pages 459-466. DOI: 10.5220/0006904404590466


in Bibtex Style

@conference{simultech18,
author={Jacek Zabawa},
title={Impact of Population Ageing on Hospital Demand},
booktitle={Proceedings of 8th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH,},
year={2018},
pages={459-466},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0006904404590466},
isbn={978-989-758-323-0},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of 8th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH,
TI - Impact of Population Ageing on Hospital Demand
SN - 978-989-758-323-0
AU - Zabawa J.
PY - 2018
SP - 459
EP - 466
DO - 10.5220/0006904404590466