Towards a Model to Reduce the Risk of Projects Guided by the

Knowledge Management Process – Application on FERTIAL

Brahami Menaouer

, Nada Matta

and Khalissa Semaoune

LIO Laboratory, University of Oran, BP: 1523 El M’naouer, Oran, Algeria

TechCICO Laboratory, University of Technology of Troyes (UTT), Troyes, France

LAREEM Laboratory, University of Oran, BP: 1524 El M’naouer, Oran, Algeria

Keywords: Knowledge Management, Knowledge Capitalization, Risk Management, Project Management, GAMETH

Method, Knowledge Sharing, Information Systems, Decision Support.

Abstract: Knowledge plays a key role in the information revolution. Major challenges are to select the information

from numerous sources and transform it into useful knowledge. In this context and in an economy strongly

focused on the "Knowledge", take the turn of Knowledge Management becomes a strategic issue for the

survival of organizations. However, the researches in knowledge management focus mainly on the creation,

capitalization, and knowledge transfer process. Researchers are, too, centred on the establishment of the

knowledge management process in companies, but little about interaction between the knowledge

management process and the risk management process. In this paper, we propose a new model to reduce the

risk of projects guided by the knowledge management process represented by the GAMETH method. We

apply our approach to ammonia industry presented by the Algerian-Spanish company - FERTIAL.

1 INTRODUCTION

Very many companies use the risk management for

developing their activity (construction, computer

science, ecology, industrial, pharmaceutical, health,

etc ...). Among the different research themes

addressed in the literature, the risk reduction of

projects remains one of the most studied together

other important works on detection, evaluation,

estimation, solutions and tools to be implemented.

However, it appears that appropriation (learning)

and experience (know-how) are effective ways to

prevent risks.

Such knowledge acquired in the past should be

managed to allow more effective risk management:

one role of knowledge management. The latter is a

way of systematic management of tacit knowledge

and explicit knowledge. Indeed, its purpose is to

retain, to transmit and to develop knowledge in order

to:

 improve the skills management,

 support decision making,

 increase productivity,

 promote innovation and creativity.

In sum, risk management and knowledge

management are two different fields that become

more and more important for companies dealing in a

global and multicultural environment.

In the first part, we present the main concepts

that are used in our paper regarding to context and

elements of the project, the theoretical concepts of

risk management, and knowledge management. In

the second part, we present our model to reduce the

risk of projects guided by the knowledge

management process by using the GAMETH

method (Grundstein, 2007); (Grundstein, 2012).

Thus, we refer to the knowledge stakeholders, their

tasks, and the results of their problem solving

activities as knowledge resources.

2 TEORETICAL FRAMING

This section deals with the main concepts that are

employed in this paper regarding to context and

elements of risk projects.

2.1 The Risk Management Process

The projects failures lead us to treat the existing

risks preventing projects to arrive to their end or else

Menaouer, B., Matta, N. and Semaoune, K..

Towards a Model to Reduce the Risk of Projects Guided by the Knowledge Management Process – Application on FERTIAL.

In Proceedings of the 7th International Joint Conference on Knowledge Discovery, Knowledge Engineering and Knowledge Management (IC3K 2015) - Volume 3: KMIS, pages 98-105

ISBN: 978-989-758-158-8

to meet their initial specifications. For this, the need

for risk management in projects is unquestionable.

Almost all norms, quality models and standards of

project management claim that risk management is

essential. With the diverse interpretations of risk, the

domain of the risk management becomes even more

complex with different organizations and entities

defining it in different expressions. Related to ISO

(ISO, 2009) defines it as a set of coordinated

activities implemented in order to direct and control

an organization with regard to risk. In fact, the risk

management is a continuous process that will trigger

further deliberation as soon as a fact is added to the

knowledge base, which makes the situation risky.

Recording Bradley (Bradley, 2011) risk

management embodies an organizational culture of

prudent risk-taking within an agency. It is the

process of identifying, assessing and responding to

risks, and communicating the outcomes of these

processes to the appropriate parties in a timely

manner. Dey (Dey, 2010) describes it as “The

systematic process of identifying, analysing and

responding to project risk”. For Rachna (Rachna and

Shahid, 2013), the risk management process is a

holistic approach includes the external and internal

risks to be addressed in the corporate strategy in

integration with corporate culture prevalent in the

company. Moreover, he outlines a standardized

approach to the identification, analysis, evaluation,

treatment, communication and monitoring of risk.

According Pender (Pender, 2001), the risks

management is present in all the systems of the

model presented above: strategic, technical, social,

structural, and the project management. The project

manager must then seek to reduce them, and if

he/she can't reduce them, he/she shall monitor their

evolution. He set up in this optic a risk management.

This risk management is a principal component of

the project management. For Emblemsvåg

(Emblemsvåg, 2010), the risk management is

required to take into account the past problems

leading to complications, present challenges and

predominant inclinations which impede the project’s

successful implementation. Generally, risk

management process is defined as a concatenation of

five (5) steps (see Figure 1):

 Risk Identification: attempts to establish threats

(risks) to the project. Its goal is to anticipate what

can go wrong in the project. The identified risks

in previous similar projects can help the software

engineer in that task;

 Risk Analysis: concerns analyzing the identified

risks, estimating their probability and occurrence

impact (exposure degree);

 Risk Assessment: aims to rank the identified

risks and to establish priorities. The goal is to

allocate resources only for the most important

risks, without managing risks with low

probability and low impact;

 Action Planning: concerns planning mitigation

and contingency actions for the managed risks

(those of higher priority). Mitigation actions aim

to reduce probability or impact of a risk before it

occurs. Contingency actions assume that

mitigation efforts have failed, and are to be

executed when a risk occurs;

 Risk Monitoring: as the project initiates and

proceeds, managed risks should be monitored.

Risks’ exposure degrees could change, new risks

could appear, or anticipated risks could be no

more relevant. It is necessary to control managed

risks, to identify new risks, and to accomplish the

necessary actions and evaluate the effectiveness

of them.

Figure 1: The Risk Management Process.

For to be reduced, the risk must first be identified

it this is the first step. For the known risk, the

analysis phase that follows consists in finding the

causes of this risk and to evaluate its consequences.

The project team then searches the possible solutions

to reduce it and sets up the one which seems the

most effective. This setting up of the solution is

piloted and regularly monitored in order to check

that it matches well to the expectations of the team

that shall make changes if necessary.

In this context, managing organizational

knowledge about risks is important to improve the

accomplishment of this activity, and to allow

organizational learning about risk management. In

this way, many experts agree that “an organization

can’t manage its risk today without managing its

knowledge” (O’Leary, 1998).

Finally, the Knowledge Management processes

Towards a Model to Reduce the Risk of Projects Guided by the Knowledge Management Process – Application on FERTIAL

as well have turned out to become a strategic

resource for the organizations. The knowledge

management can have a great influence on reducing

organizations' risks (Rachna and Shahid, 2013).

However, using the knowledge management

processes to improve the application of the risk

management processes is a recent and significant

research area. In spite of its importance, this area of

research has not been addressed intensively up to

now. A company cannot manage its risks effectively

if it cannot manage its knowledge, many projects

failed due to lack of knowledge among the project

team members or lack of knowledge sharing during

project progress (Rachna and Shahid, 2013).

2.2 Knowledge Management

Before understanding how knowledge management

allows reducing the risks in the projects, we find out

its own characteristics.

In the literature, we find several definitions of

knowledge management. For this, we are focused in

our paper about a few definitions. Barclay (Barclay,

2004) defines the knowledge management as being

“as a process of identification, formalization,

disseminating and use of knowledge in order to

promote creativity and innovation in companies”.

According Dieng-Kuntz (Dieng-Kuntz, 2001),

Knowledge capitalization in an organization has as

objectives to promote the growth, the transmission

and the preservation of knowledge in this

organization. According Grundstein (Grundstein,

2012), capitalizing on company’s knowledge means

considering certain knowledge used and produced

by the company as a storehouse of riches and

drawing from these riches interest that contributes to

increasing the company's capital. In fact, the

knowledge management is a way to answer the

problem of capitalizing on the company’s

knowledge. This problem can be considered as a

multi facet problem solving approach which is

described by Grundstein as follows: (Locate,

Preserve, Enhance, Actualize, and Manage). For

Barthès (Barthès and Grundstein, 1996), knowledge

management consists of capturing and representing

knowledge of the company, facilitating its access,

sharing and re-use. This very complex problem can

be approached by several points of view: socio-

organizational, economic, financial, technical,

human and legal (Grundstein, 2007). Additionally,

Alavi and Leidner (Alavi and Leidner, 2001)

identified the KM processes: creation, storage and

retrieval, transfer and application of knowledge.

These processes are looking for creating value from

intangible assets: human capital, structural capital,

intellectual capital, customer or relationship capital.

For Nonaka and Takeuchi (Nonaka and Takeuchi,

1995), knowledge management systems are guided

to capture, create, store, organize and disseminate

organizational knowledge. This process takes into

account the transformation and the evolution of tacit

to explicit knowledge (O’Leary, 1998) and of

individual to collective knowledge. Tacit knowledge

is represented by experience, beliefs and technical

skills accumulated in the people’s minds. Explicit

knowledge is the knowledge expressed in

documents, data and other codified forms. The

interactions and movements from tacit and explicit

knowledge to tacit and explicit knowledge on the

individual and organizational level generate the

knowledge creation in an organization. The dynamic

is expressed through the processes in Figure 2.

Figure 2: A Model of Dynamic Organizational Knowledge

Creation (Nonaka and Takeuchi, 1995).

It can carry both theoretical knowledge and

know-how of the company. It requires the

management of company knowledge resources to

facilitate their access and their re-use (Pender,

2001).

Moreover, we can find in the literature different

proposals of life cycle used to realize knowledge

management (such as GAMETH, MASK, REX,

KOD, etc.). In our paper, we adopted the knowledge

management life-cycle proposed by Grundstein

(Grundstein, 2007), where, according to him, "in any

operation of knowledge capitalization, it is important

to identify the strategic knowledge to be

capitalized".

For our purpose, the knowledge capitalization

cycle was chosen as the most appropriate because of

its generalizing point of view (see Figure 3). This

cycle summarizes the knowledge capitalization tasks

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100

Figure 3: The Generic KM Processes (GAMETH method) (Grundstein, 2007).

in four major steps: detection, preservation,

capitalization and actualization of strategic

knowledge, each of them declined by several

detailed tasks. These steps also reflect requirements

for our objective, i.e. the development of a model to

reduce project risks and a decision support system

for FERTIAL Company.

3 THE MODEL TO REDUCE THE

RISK OF PROJECTS GUIDED

BY THE KNOWLEDGE

MANAGEMENT PROCESS

The capitalization gathers the processes allowing of

valorize the knowledge "acquired": the return of

experiments on reducing risks, capitalization around

the finding solutions to improve the teamwork, use

of tools for modeling, and the planning within the

FERTIAL (National Fleuron of the petrochemical

industry) Company.

FERTIAL (National Fleuron of the

petrochemical industry) (see the References section),

Company of Fertilizer of Algeria, is a company

resulting from a partnership concluded in August

2005 between the Algerian Group ASMIDAL (see

the References section) and the Spanish group

GrupoVillar Mir (see the References section). Also,

it is composed of five major divisions specialized in

numerous activities related especially the

manufacture of fertilizers and agricultural fertilizers.

Indeed, the security is a key factor in the Industrial

Policy and Human Resources, as well as staff

training, quality and respect for the environment.

The most important goal of the FERTIAL Company

is to achieve zero accidents and ensure industrial

safety of the surrounding communities by proposing

an approach of knowledge capitalization in the

trades’ and its exploitation in the projects. These

projects were intended for the renovation and

modernization of industrial facilities to improve

their capacity, the acquisition of new digital control

system, to the environment and security ... etc (see

Figure 4).

Figure 4: Destination of investment projects.

The knowledge management process can reduce

the risk of projects. In fact, as we are going see

through the Figure 3, the different phases of risk

management correspond to the operational chain of

the knowledge management process.

During the identification phase, the project

team puts in common all the knowledge related to

sources of the risk and searches for the presence of

these sources at all levels of the project. For that, we

are also interested in this study to identify the

sources of risks for people, property, and work at the

Towards a Model to Reduce the Risk of Projects Guided by the Knowledge Management Process – Application on FERTIAL

101

level of FERTIAL group especially the complex

Fertilizers Production. The table below recapitulates

the identification of these risk sources.

Table 1: The different types of resources threatened by

Risks in FARTIAL Company.

Management , Skills

 Membership resignation of the

project team;

 Departures of consultants or

experts, (Death, Injury, and

illness of an expert);

 Go to another company –

project,

 Stress, exhaustion

Technologies /

Materials / Middle

 Pollution in terms of

environment (hygiene, waste

management).

 Accident in terms of health,

 Gas leak

 Incendie, Explosion

Identifying the

stakeholders

(i.e.,who is involved

or affected).

 Past events,

 Future developments.

This knowledge was accumulated during

previous learning and from experiments of past

projects. The acquisition of such knowledge that

corresponds to the step of preserving (acquiring) the

knowledge management core process is carried out

using different means: learning, the experiments

return, and the knowledge transfer between the

actors of the project team. Moreover, we have used

others project risk identification techniques

including:

 Brainstorming sessions with staff or external

stakeholders

This brainstorming process is likely

to highlight a large number of risks of differing

importance. As a result, it is necessary to score

the risks in terms of the likelihood of the risk

being realized, the impact the risk would have on

the achievement of projects objectives and the

quality of the mechanisms in place to control

(manage) the risk. This enables the relative

importance of each risk to be assessed and

ranked;

 Use the documentation and existing project

management tools: Project design tools

(functional analysis, Pert (critical path key step),

and budget);

 Check-lists or pre-established surveys covering

the different areas of the project (Environment

and Safety);

 Working from the problems encountered from

previous projects (Post-mortem, expert advice,

and experiences Returns);

In the concrete case of a project, we have clarified

some contextual information’s: for example, which

are users formed, what are the signatories and

recipients of mail and what are the participants in the

meetings...

However, these methods and tools each have

their own limitations. For that, we find ourselves

important to use them jointly in order to obtain a

most exhaustive identification of the projects risk.

This stock of knowledge feeds the discussions which

occur during of the identification phase.

During the phase of risk analysis, the

knowledge acquired in the past relating to the

evaluation and estimation methods and the risk

measurement are put to contribution. The solution

for reducing and / or controlling the risk arises from

the analysis developed just before. Through

knowledge detained by team, its trade’s actors can

more or less predict the consequences entailed by

the solution establishment.

Furthermore, the method chosen for the risk

analysis that we used combines the possible

consequences or impact of an event (management,

skills, environment, technologies, and health) with

the likelihood of these events which occurring.

The

result is a ‘level of risk’ (see Figure 5)

Figure 5: Characteristics of Risks.

Subsequently, the type of analysis that we used is

qualitative (i.e based on a "simplified" evaluation)

that takes into account the severity and probability

parameters according to the following three levels.

Table 2: Index of risk criticality.

1 Null

2 Low

3 Medium

4 High

Also, we performed a mapping "Occurrence

probability/ gravity." This mapping allows

determining the nature of the risk treatment

measures to be implemented depending on the type

of risk (preventive measures for risk probability,

measure of protection for gravity risks, avoidance or

suppression, and priority by treatment ...).

It allows arbitrating the risk treatment with high

probability of occurrence and strengthens protective

measures for risks with high gravity (see Figure 6).

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Figure 6: The mapping "Occurrence probability/ gravity".

The choice of preventive actions to engage is

performed by comparing the costs of implementing

them with the consequences costs of the risk, taking

into account their occurrence probability.

Thus, the steps of identification and analysis

constitutes the interaction phase of our model that

we have integrated into the GAMETH method

(Grundstein, 2012); (Grundstein, 2007) after the

preserving phase (see Figure 7).

Moreover, the establishment of the solution is

piloted and controlled by the project manager

(leader) with the aid the effect evaluation of the

solution of the risk, for example by using of

monitoring balanced scorecard which contains

(control efficiency, control cost, and monitoring of

action plans) or by dialoguing with concerned trades'

actors.

Likewise, we can through this mapping to launch

a regular activity to risk monitoring. The latter

allows following the evolution of the risk

appearance probability (stable, on the rise, on the

drop) to control the relevance of preventive actions

engaged and eventually to correct the planned

arrangements.

The interaction between the solution and the two

managerial skills (piloting and control) is similar to

the integration phase of knowledge management

process (see Figure 7). Indeed, the implementation

of the solution is akin to an action process which is

tested and regulated by the control and piloting of

the project manager.

This control and this piloting pulls out a more or

less thorough evaluation of the effects of the

solution envisaged and this evaluation serves as the

basis for knowledge creating, the third step

(Enhancing KM core Process) of the GAMETH

Method. Evaluation of the solution consists in

comparing the results obtained to desired results

(effectively). This difference, positive or negative,

between real results and contemplated results, allows

the team (managers and trades’ actors) to make self-

criticism of the solution and to define thus the

advantages and disadvantages of the solution

Figure 7: Integration of the Knowledge Management Process (GAMETH method) in the Risk Management Process.

Towards a Model to Reduce the Risk of Projects Guided by the Knowledge Management Process – Application on FERTIAL

103

developed to accumulate knowledge.

After updating, enriching, and appraising of the

knowledge management process by the new

knowledge (the fourth phase “Actualizing” of

GAMETH process), this new knowledge is managed

in a project memory (Matta et al, 2000) for that the

knowledge management process can reduce the

risks, follow-up the risks, and elaboration a vision of

the future projects (the fifth phase “Manage” of the

GAMETH process).

The knowledge management cycle is thus sealed

off. The new knowledge accumulated over of the

risk management is memorized and ready to be

disseminated to the future of project teams. The risk

management will be more effective because the

phases of identification, of analysis, and setting up

the solution will benefit from the experience of past

projects.

The introduction of knowledge management thus

allows reduce directly the risks. However, it also

influences indirectly risk sources:

 The responsiveness lack: this is organized by the

establishing of the alert system; information

processing systems by exception which enable

quickly identify the risks that can arise, and the

procedures aiming at reducing these risks. In

other, the responsiveness is improved by the

detection, identification and rapid risk analysis.

 The cognitive biases: For Zindel (Zindel et al,

2014), the cognitive biases are cognitive

processes which generate errors of appreciation

and interpretation of the information at the

individual level. Moreover, the cognitive

processes serve to reduce and combine mentally

of the information quantities. From sharing its

process, knowledge management reduces the

cognitive biases due to interactions between the

team members.

4 CONCLUSIONS

We can summarize the contributions of knowledge

management to reduce the risks in the following

way:

1. The knowledge management allows evolving the

cognitive processes of the various project actors.

2. The knowledge management favors the

knowledge acquisition at the level the risks by

making explicit the tacit knowledge of the

different actors on the risks, retaining such

knowledge and transferring them.

However, it must be noted that the use of the

knowledge management to reduce the risk is only

relevant if an assessment and an experience

feedback of projects is performed by all project

actors. Indeed, it was only at this time that the

knowledge about the risks can extend thanks to the

measurement of deviations between what that was

expected of the project and the real results, by

analyzing these deviations and by fixing this

analysis in the knowledge base.

It does must also not lose sight of the fact that

the knowledge management takes an interest in the

environment that surrounded the project, because,

the solutions applied to reduce the risks may be

different according to the project environment.

Finally, we are currently working with our

collaborator of FERTIAL Company to put our

approach and its stages, including the risk

monitoring plan and the knowledge capitalization, in

practice, in a project to increase production capacity

of ammonia and fertilizers.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This project is registered in the context of

collaboration between the company FERTIAL, our

research team of the laboratory ICD/TechCICO,

University of Technology of Troyes (UTT) and the

National School Polytechnic of Oran (ENPO). The

authors also acknowledge the service team of

FERTIAL for her assistance on to finalize this

project.

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