Agent based Modeling Simulation for Land Use Change
and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Land Management Policies
Armando Sánchez Vargas
1
, Carlos Gay Garcia
2,3
, Debora Martinez Ventura
4
,
Ana Liz Herrera Merino
4
and Bernardo A. Bastien Olvera
3
1
Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico
2
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico
3
Programa de Investigación en Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico
4
Facultad de Economía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico
Keywords: Agent-based Modeling Simulation, Urban Growth, Social Welfare, Land Management, Cost-Benefit
Analysis.
Abstract: This study shows the Simulation of an Agent Based Model for Land Use Change (SIMBACUS) developed
on the Netlogo platform (Wilensky, 1999) for the period of 2010-2030. The model studies the interaction of
individual behavior with environmental characteristics considering socioeconomic, demographic, climate and
public policy aspects of Pachuca de Soto (Hidalgo). The simulation’s dynamism is based on population
growth and the Cobb-Douglas utility function, which determines the optimal decisions of individuals. The
results indicate that in 2030 the municipality would have 303,773 inhabitants, the urban area would grow to
21 km2 and the implementation of a land management program would have a positive impact on social welfare
and the permanence of natural resources.
1 INTRODUCTION
The use of Agent-Based Models has increased for the
simulation of complex space systems, such as urban
growth (Cantergiani, et al, 2014). These models are
based on a cellular automaton, they consider the
behavior of agents in the system to generate the
simulation and are mainly composed by the following
elements: agents, environment and the interactions
between them (Gilbert, 2008). This work’s main
objective is to analyze the impacts of the
implementation of an Ecological Land Zoning
Program (POET, for its acronym in Spanish) in a
municipality with more than 100,000 inhabitants that
shows evidence of extreme events.
The analysis is based on the Simulation of an
Agent Based Model for Land Use Change
(SIMBACUS, in Spanish), which allows to study the
interaction of individual behavior with environmental
characteristics considering socioeconomic,
demographic, climate and public policy aspects of the
municipality Pachuca de Soto (Hidalgo). The tool
also incorporates a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) and
the opportunity cost of not implementing a land
management program (i.e. where is allowed to settle
and where is not). Based on this, it estimates the
population losses or gains that may be attributable to
the POET during the period 2010-2030.
The model is developed in the 5.2.0 Netlogo
programming software (Wilensky, 1999) and its
dynamism arises by population growth and a Cobb-
Douglas utility function that determines the optimal
decisions of individuals. Individual behavior is based
on economic theory, as every agent evaluates the
physical and economic characteristics of their
environment and from this they choose to settle in a
space that maximizes their utility. The simulation
period comprises 21 years, with its initial conditions
in 2010 and ending in 2030.
The following socio-demographic information is
used: population growth in the period 2010-2030
(CONAPO), crowding index (IMIP, 2009), growth
rate of economic units (INEGIa), extension of the
municipality (INEGIb) and Urban Containment
Boundaries (UCB, CONAVI). Cartographic
information in shape format (.shp) from the National
Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) is
included as well.
368
Vargas, A., Garcia, C., Ventura, D., Merino, A. and Olvera, B.
Agent based Modeling Simulation for Land Use Change and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Land Management Policies.
DOI: 10.5220/0006017203680375
In Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH 2016), pages 368-375
ISBN: 978-989-758-199-1
Copyright
c
2016 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. All rights reserved
The results of the simulation indicate that with an
average population growth of 0.3% each semester, the
municipality of Pachuca de Soto would have 303,773
inhabitants at the end of 2030. This simulation
considers the implementation of land management
policies, and suggests that the distribution of
population and new workplaces should be
implemented in an orderly manner, because occupied
spaces would be those that meet the physical
characteristics to be urbanized. Another important
finding emphasizes that the absence of a land
management program could result in a social
opportunity cost in terms of income, since there will
be a loss of approximately $171,490 pesos (1 Peso
0.053 0.047€) biannually per square
kilometer, and at the end of said period the cost would
be of $13.4 million pesos. Finally, the model also
provides results of the POET’s CBA from the same
period. The results of our simulations suggest that the
Net Present Value (NPV) of the management
program would be positive ($2,284 million pesos), as
well as the Benefit-Cost ratio (1.20) and Internal Rate
of Return (15.25%). This presumes that the
implementation of such programs in circumstances of
extreme events is desirable for society since is
possible to generate positive effects on social welfare
in terms of revenue.
2 FORMULATION OF
SIMBACUS
The model’s implementation is developed in six-
month periods; the process displays some of the
implications of land use change and its evolution over
time, specifically in its shape, density, and gains or
losses in social welfare. The zero period or baseline
refers to information of the year 2010, which shows
the initial conditions of the municipality such as:
population, economic units with more than 30
employees, main roadways, and extension of the
urban area. In addition, CBA and opportunity cost
data is introduced.
In order to simplify the model some assumptions
are incorporated. First, it is assumed that each
individual will settle in the place that maximizes their
utility, which only depends on their distance to their
workplace and soil quality. Moreover, the real-estate
market is regulated by the supply and demand model,
which means that the Government assigns
construction permits as the need for them increases.
Regarding population and economic unit growth
rates, there’s a constant growth every 6 months and
every 3 years, respectively. The crowding index (3.3)
remains constant throughout the simulation period,
just like the population density (1,371 Hab / Km
2
).
Finally, the opportunity cost per square kilometer
increases at a constant rate of $17,000 pesos per
semester.
The simulation model consists of three main
elements that interact with each other: agents, space
and resources. The agents are homes and workplaces.
The space is restricted to cells found within the limits
of 5 of the 12 municipalities that make up the
Pachuca-Tizayuca region, which is represented with
a raster layer (.asc format) that indicates soils with
aptitude to be urbanized. In the case of the resources,
they refer to soil quality and distance from homes to
workplaces. Figure 1 describes the characteristics of
each element of the model.
The simulation takes the idea of neighborhood
and assumes that the sites are highly influenced by the
characteristics and properties of its neighbors (i.e. the
Figure 1: Elements of the simulation model.
Agent based Modeling Simulation for Land Use Change and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Land Management Policies
369
agents that are close). As stated previously, each
period of the model represents 6 months, i.e. for each
tick in Netlogo, a series of biannual behaviors occurs.
First, the number of dwellers in the municipality
increases at an average constant rate and the new
individuals find empty cells according to their ability
to be urbanized. At the same time, workplaces
increase every three years according to the average
growth rate, this causes an update in the “distance”
property and people receive an information flow
about it and about soil quality. Afterwards, people
evaluate the space around them and seek to settle
where they can maximize their utility; new residents
affect soil quality and then new urbanized areas
appear. The process concludes with the update of the
number of inhabitants and the estimation of the CBA
or opportunity cost, according to the existence of a
POET.
3 AGENT’S (INDIVIDUALS)
DECISION
The decision of people to inhabit or not an empty
space (rural) is defined by a Cobb-Douglas utility
function. Each individual randomly evaluates a
number of empty cells that are suitable for
inhabitation, and then they choose the one that
maximizes their utility depending on the distance and
quality. The first represents an economic value for
agents, since it affects the transportation cost of
moving from their homes to their workplace (Batty,
2005). On the other hand, soil quality is linked to the
UCB, as well as the distance to the new workplaces
that come up during the simulation. The function that
defines the utility of each person is expressed as
follows:
U
dist,qual

K
dist
qual
(1)
U: Utility of the person that builds a house.
K: Arbitrary constant.
dist: It is the attribute that concerns the average
distance from homes to workplaces. This is inversely
proportional to the function, since a high average
distance adversely affects the utility of people.
qual: Attribute of soil quality.
An important aspect in the utility function is that
the user of SIMBACUS can define the parameters of
preference of the agents; they are set at the beginning
of the simulation and defined in a numerical range
from -1 to 1. The value of -1 indicates distance as a
priority for people; while 1 means that they care more
about soil quality. The balance between these
priorities is achieved when a value of 0 is set, which
means that both distance to the workplace and soil
quality are of interest to the individuals (Felsen and
Wilensky, 2007). The parameters alpha and beta were
manually tuned in function of experts opinion of
Pachuca de Soto, in terms of what could and what
could not happen.
Figure 2: Parameters of preference of the agents.
4 SIMULATION
The biannual evolution of the simulation implies an
update of the information on the same frequency, so
annual data is shown every 2 ticks in Netlogo. The
dynamism of SIMBACUS arises from the population
growth, which is reflected as an increased demand for
land to be inhabited, so previously empty spaces
become inhabited areas. Quality and distance
properties are updated in each period as a result of the
creation of new workplaces and the change in land
use. Moreover, considering the implementation of a
POET within the area, the model performs a CBA.
Otherwise, in case of not having a program like this,
the opportunity cost per square kilometer is
estimated.
4.1 Initial Conditions
The SIMBACUS tool allows the modification of
values by the user, according to the characteristics of
the area to be simulated. In order to do this, the first
step of the simulation is to specify the initial
conditions of the model. For this exercise, a biannual
population growth rate of 0.3% is established and
remains constant for the entire period, as well as a
growth rate of workplaces of 4% for every three years
and a crowding index of 3.3. Also, a neutral value in
the quality and/or distance priority is defined, which
states that both criteria are important for people when
deciding their location.
The opportunity cost data because of the absence
of a land management program ($17,000 pesos/km
2
)
is also determined. On the other hand, a CBA is
carried out when land regulations exist, for which a
Social Discount Rate of 12% is defined (SHCP,
2014). At this early stage some map layers are added
to the model, like municipal and urban polygons,
MSCCES 2016 - Special Session on Applications of Modeling and Simulation to Climatic Change and Environmental Sciences
370
urban containment boundaries, intra-urban vacant
lots, rivers, roads and other physical characteristics of
the land. In addition, workplaces are generated, the
attributes of the agents are set up, and the profit (or
opportunity cost) that the land management program
of the urban area in 2010 generates, is estimated.
4.2 Description of Execution
The simulation is developed from the execution of
four essential processes. The first and most important
has to do with population growth, since it establishes
the emergence of new individuals within the virtual
world. The population growth is accompanied by an
increasing demand for residential and commercial
land. With this, the second process starts, in which
people analyze the characteristics of the soil around
them in order to decide where to settle. New agents
randomly choose a set of possible areas for
inhabitation (cells), they evaluate the utility offered
by each cell and choose to settle in the area that
maximizes their utility.
Once the person has selected a space to establish,
the construction method is activated, which indicates
that the land has been inhabited and, as a result, is
given a new color that shows its urbanization. The
transformation of rural to urban causes an update of
the quality and distance attributes, not only in the new
inhabited area but also in the neighborhood.
Finally, the model allows the estimation of the
CBA of a land management program, as well as the
opportunity cost that would imply the absence of one.
The information about the POET’s costs and benefits
in the period 2010-2030 is introduced to the model
through a file (.csv) and a Social Discount Rate that
can be modified by the user is employed. At the end
of the simulation, the results of the program
performance indicators, the Benefit-Cost ratio and the
Net Present Value are obtained. If not, changes in the
cost of opportunity throughout the period are plotted,
and at the end of it, information is offered about the
monetary losses in terms of revenue which would
impact the inhabitants of the municipality.
5 RESULTS
The main purpose of the tool is to simulate the effect
of the implementation of land management policies
on land use change. At the same time, SIMBACUS
shows what the evolution of urban settlements would
be in the absence of such regulations. In this section,
a baseline simulation is developed, as well as two
strategic scenarios of population growth in Pachuca
de Soto. Each case incorporates a Cost-Benefit
analysis which determines whether a land
management program is feasible or not for society.
Furthermore, the model also provides results of the
social losses that would occur in the absence of land
regulation.
The simulation results are divided into two
sections. The first sets out two baseline scenarios for
the evolution of the urban area, where the only
difference between them is the existence of land
management policies. In the second section, the
scenarios that result from the modification in the
conditions of population growth at 0.43% and 0.17%
are described. In this last section it is assumed that the
municipality implemented a land management
program.
5.1 Baseline Simulation: Population
Growth with POET
Implementation
The simulation is defined by the initial conditions of
the model. This first scenario establishes restrictions
on land use change by implementing a land
management program. The base year is 2010,
Pachuca de Soto has a population of 267,862
inhabitants and 539 economic units. The average
population growth is 0.3% every 6 months and 4% for
economic units every three years. The crowding
index for the municipality is set at 3.3 throughout the
whole period and the same population density is
preserved. In addition, people’s priority for distance
and quality is determined as the same, both criteria
are important for maximizing their utility. To
estimate the CBA of the POET, a SDR of 12% is
defined (SHCP, 2014).
Figure 3 shows the map with SIMBACUS’s initial
conditions. Specifically, urban estates of the
municipality of Pachuca are shown in gray and
neighboring municipalities in brown. Soil suitable to
be urbanized is shown in orange, while white
characterizes spaces that aren’t fit for habitation.
Other important aspects also considered are roads and
rivers, represented by black and blue lines
respectively. Finally, economic units (red dots) are
located within the urban area of Pachuca, as well as
areas categorized as vacant lots (pink areas).
The results of this simulation indicate that with a
baseline population growth of 0.3% average per
semester, the municipality would have 303,773
inhabitants by the end of the period (2030). This
means that there would be 92,052 homes with a
crowding index of approximately 3.3. The assumed
demographic dynamism would cause previously
Agent based Modeling Simulation for Land Use Change and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Land Management Policies
371
Figure 3: SIMBACUS’ initial conditions.
empty spaces to be inhabited now by people and
companies. In the first instance, agents would occupy
areas within the urban range currently categorized as
vacant lots. Afterwards, they would settle in spaces
around the urban area, extending it to 21 km
2
in 2030.
The results of the CBA show that the NPV of the
program would be of 2,284.478 million pesos and
would have a benefit-cost ratio of 1.20, so is possible
to say that land management policies would generate
social benefits over a period of 21 years (see table 1).
Table 1: Results of Simulation I.
Parameter Value
Total Population 303,773
Total Homes 92,052
New Economic Units 168
Urban Area Growth 21 km
2
Net Present Value
(NPV)
2,248.478 million pesos
Benefit – Cost ratio 1.20
Figure 4: Results of Simulation I. Yellow circles are new
economic units, dark-gray areas are new urbanized areas.
For all other colors, please refer to Figure 3.
Figure 4 shows that the distribution of the
population and new workplaces would be
implemented in an orderly manner, since occupied
spaces are those that meet the physical
characteristics to be urbanized. This suggests that
the population could be living in less risky areas
without causing damage to the ecosystems that still
persist in the region.
5.2 Baseline Simulation: Population
Growth without the
Implementation of a POET
The following simulation considers the same initial
conditions as the previous one, but with no land
regulation. This implies an opportunity cost, which is
represented through the household’s income losses,
as well as the deterioration of some natural areas. By
keeping the same rates of population and economic
unit growth, you can see that change occurs mainly in
the distribution of population, as agents decide to
settle in areas that don’t meet the physical
characteristics to be urbanized (see Fig. 5).
The lack of a land management program could
also have negative effects on household income,
especially for those living in areas of extreme events.
The results show that this would be a social
opportunity cost, since per square kilometer there
would be an average loss of $171,490 pesos
biannually, and of $13.4 million pesos at the end of
the period (see Table 2).
Table 2: Results of Simulation II.
Parameter Value
Total Population 303,773
Total Homes 92,052
New Economic Units 168
Urban Area Growth 21 km
2
Opportunity Cost (Monetary Income) 13.4 million pesos
MSCCES 2016 - Special Session on Applications of Modeling and Simulation to Climatic Change and Environmental Sciences
372
Figure 5 shows that much of the urban growth
occurs in the north of the municipality, which means
that people would occupy areas where woodland
vegetation predominates. This situation could lead to
the loss of natural resources that are essential for the
maintenance of ecological balance. Also, it is possible
to see that new homes would be located in areas of
high and medium risk.
Figure 5: Results of Simulation II. Yellow circles are new
economic units, dark-gray areas are new urbanized areas.
For all other colors, please refer to Figure 3.
5.3 Strategic Scenarios: Population
The capital of the state of Hidalgo is located in the
municipality of Pachuca de Soto. Therefore, an
accelerated population growth can lead to a large
expansion of the urban area and the absorption of
peripheral locations (IMIP, 2009). For this exercise,
the 2010 population (267,862 inhabitants) is taken as
a baseline. Modifications are made based on standard
deviation values (±) of the average growth rate that
are proposed by CONAPO. The model shows
biannual information, so the increases and decreases
in population growth have the same temporality. In
addition, in all the scenarios the implementation of a
land management policy is considered.
5.3.1 Population Growth 1 (Pgr = 0.43%)
The first scenario assumes a dynamic growth as a
result of investments and projects that are planned for
the area, such as the Bicentennial Refinery, the
PLATAH and the Hidalgo projects. From this it is
assumed that there will be a strong impact on
population growth (IMIP, 2009) and the biannual
average rate of growth is proposed to increase by
0.43%. The existence of an Ecological Land Zoning
Program (POET), an initial population of 267,862
inhabitants and 539 economic units are set as the
initial conditions for the simulation. Their respective
growth rates are 0.43% per semester and 4% every
three years. The crowding index is set at 3.3 and the
quality/distance priority is considered the same. The
CBA of the program is estimated with a Social
Discount Rate of 12%.
SIMBACUS results suggest that an increase in
population growth would imply that the population of
the municipality will be of 320,757 inhabitants in 20
years. This means that there would be 52,895 more
people than in the baseline scenario, as a result of
investment circumstances and the important
migratory flow towards the metropolitan area of
Pachuca (IMIP, 2009). On housing issues, it is
estimated that with a 3.3 crowding index, 97,199
households would be needed, which would cause the
urban area to reach 29 km
2
(see Table 3).
Table 3: Results of Simulation III.
Parameter Value
Total Population 320,757
Total Homes 97,199
New Economic Units 168
Urban Area Growth 29 km
2
Net Present Value
(NPV)
2,284.47 million pesos
Benefit – Cost ratio 1.20
The dynamic increase of population would
generate a more rapid expansion of the urban area,
which would develop in an orderly manner; this is
because people would be located in areas with the
physical conditions for a better urban development
according to the POET (see Figure 6). Furthermore,
through the CBA it can be concluded that these
programs would generate a social benefit, which
means that public resources would be properly
invested. Under this scenario, population growth
would also produce a fusion between the existing
urban sprawls of Pachuca and Mineral de la Reforma.
Figure 6: Results of Simulation III.
5.3.2 Population Growth 2 (PGR = 0.17%)
The following scenario is performed with the goal of
having a setting with a lower biannual population
Agent based Modeling Simulation for Land Use Change and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Land Management Policies
373
growth rate. It is assumed that population control
policies are implemented while the initial conditions
are similar to the previous case. However, the
population growth rate is set at 0.17%.
The results indicate that a reduction of population
growth could lower the need for spaces to be
urbanized, since the increase in this type of land
would be only of 13 km
2
. Under this scenario, at the
end of 2030 the total population of the municipality
would be of 287,669 people and 87,172 homes would
be required (see Table 4).
Table 4: Results of Simulation III.
Parameter Value
Total Population 287,669
Total Homes 87,172
New Economic Units 168
Urban Area Growth 13 km2
Net Present Value
(NPV)
2,284.47 million pesos
Benefit – Cost ratio 1.20
Figure 7 shows that the population occupies
mostly vacant lots within the existing urban area.
There is an expansion of the urban area in the contour
of the current polygon; which is much lower than in
previous cases. It is important to note that people
settle in areas where there is a roadway, which could
suggest that transportation networks are an important
factor for urbanization.
Figure 7: Results of Simulation III.
6 CONCLUSIONS
The study of the effectiveness of land management
programs and the analysis of their profitability
contributes to decision making in public policy. The
main objective of this paper is to analyze the
implementation of an Ecological Land Zoning
Program (POET) in a municipality with more than
100,000 inhabitants that presents evidence of extreme
events. To do this, an Agent Based Modeling
Simulation for Land Use Change (SIMBACUS) is
developed, which allows studying the interaction
between individual behavior and environmental
characteristics. The model runs on the Netlogo 5.2.0
platform (Wilensky, 1999) for the period of 2010-
2030 and aims to be a useful tool for urban
development issues, especially in highly populated
municipalities that have evidence of extreme events.
One of its main features is that not only does it show
the evolution of human settlements, but also offers the
results of the Cost-Benefit Analysis of implementing
a land management program.
SIMBACUS provides spatial and social elements
that allow the configuration of a simulation of urban
growth. At the same time, it takes into account the
individual behavior of agents based on economic
theory, from the maximization of their utility. One of
the main findings of this study is that the
implementation of land management policies could
cause urban area growth to occur in a more orderly
way. In addition, CBA suggests that such actions
could generate a social benefit in terms of household
income, as well as the preservation of natural
resources. From the Cobb-Douglas function it was
possible to see that soil quality and distance to the
workplace are factors that could affect mobility and
land distribution of people within urban areas.
Nevertheless, future work includes the consideration
of other georreferenced factors in order to obtain
more reliable results.
REFERENCES
Batty, M., 2005. Cities and Complexity. Massachusetts: Mit
University Press Group Ltd.
Cantergiani, C., Barros, J. and Gomez, M., 2014. How real
state agents behavios affects urban growth: an Agent-
Based Model approach. In: Advances in Computational
Social Science and Social Simulation. Barcelona:
Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona, pp. 491-493.
Comisión Nacional de Vivienda (CONAPO), n.d. Datos de
las proyecciones de la población y localidades del
período 2010-2030. [Online] Available at:
http://www.conapo.gob.mx/es/CONAPO/
Proyecciones_Datos [Accessed 2015 Agosto 01].
Comisión Nacional de Vivienda (CONAVI), n.d.
Perímetros de Contención Urbana. [Online] Available
at: http://pcu.ruv.mx/PCU/ [Accessed 30 Septiembre
2015].
Felsen, M., Wilensky, U., 2007. Netlogo Urban Suite -
Economic Disparity model. Center for Connected
Learning and Computer - Based Modeling. Evanston,
IL: Northwestern University. Available at:
MSCCES 2016 - Special Session on Applications of Modeling and Simulation to Climatic Change and Environmental Sciences
374
http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/Urban
Suite-EconomicDisparity
Gilbert, N., 2008. Agent-Based Models. London: Sage
Publications.
Instituto Municipal de Investigación y Planeación (IMIP),
2009. Programa Municipal de Desarrollo Urbano de
Pachuca de Soto Estado de Hidalgo. Gobierno de
Estado de Hidalgo.
Instituto Municipal de Investigación y Planeación (IMIP),
2012. Inventario de Uso de Suelo. Gobierno de Estado
de Hidalgo.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI).
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI).
Censos Económicos 2014. [Online] Available at:
http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/proyectos/ce/c
e2014/default.aspx
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI).
Mapa Digital de México. [Online] Available at:
http://www.inegi.org.mx/geo/contenidos/ mapadigital
Moreno, A., Urbina, J., 2008. Impactos sociales del cambio
climático en México. México: Instituto Nacional de
Ecología (INE – SEMARNAT), Programa de Naciones
Unidas para el Desarrollo (PNUD).
Periódico Oficial de Hidalgo, 2004. Decreto
Gubernamental del Modelo de Ordenamiento
Ecológico Territorial de la Región Valle Pachuca –
Tizayuca del Estado de Hidalgo.
Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP), 2014.
Oficio Circular No. 400.1.410.14.009, México.
Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP), 2011.
Evaluación Socioeconómica y Análisis Costo-
Beneficio de las obras de protección para la cuenca
Pitahayas en Pachuca de Soto. Hidalgo: Demero
Ingeniería S.A. [Online] Available at:
http://www.apartados.hacienda.gob.mx/sistema_carter
a_inversion/index.html
Secretaria de Medio Ambienta y Recursos Naturales
(SEMARNAT), 2014. Actualización del Programa de
Ordenamiento Ecológico de la Región Valle Pachuca –
Tizayuca (POET).
Secretaria de Desarrollo Social (SEDESOL), 2004. La Guía
Metodológica para la Elaboración de Atlas de Peligros
Naturales en Zonas Urbanas (Identificación y
Zonificación).
Wilensky, U., 1999. NetLogo. Center for Connected
Learning and Computer-Based Modelling. Evanston,
IL: Northwestern University. Available at:
http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/
Agent based Modeling Simulation for Land Use Change and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Land Management Policies
375