Authors:
Ruiping Wang
1
;
Xu Li
2
;
Xiao Song
2
;
Lei Dai
2
and
Yixin Li
2
Affiliations:
1
School of Electronic and Information Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing and China
;
2
State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Manufacturing System Technology, Beijing Institute of Electronic System Engineering, Beijing and China
Keyword(s):
Project Schedule, Simulation, Petri Net.
Related
Ontology
Subjects/Areas/Topics:
Artificial Intelligence
;
Formal Methods
;
Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics
;
Intelligent Control Systems and Optimization
;
Petri Nets
;
Planning and Scheduling
;
Simulation and Modeling
;
Symbolic Systems
Abstract:
Traditional program evaluation and review technique lacks of complex task relation models. To tackle this, this paper proposes a project schedule risk assessment model based on extended Petri net, in which the characteristics of task duration, task overlap and sub-tasks are modelled. Based on the characteristics of concurrent iteration in product development schedule, the influence of each sub-task relationship on the simulation uncertainty is considered. In this case, several mathematical distributions are used to simulate the schedule of the subtask based on its own characteristics and the relationship between them. Based on the above modelling, the key path of the project schedule is selected, and the transition mechanism of state change in the simulation is designed. Finally, simulation results show that the proposed project schedule risk assessment method can provide specific reference for the development plan of the whole project and its sub-projects. In addition, the model can
also be used to evaluate the cost of the project and establish the cost standard of the project according to the evaluation.
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