Authors:
Jianing Chu
and
Yu Chen
Affiliation:
SCS Laboratory, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwanoha 5-1-5, Chiba, Japan
Keyword(s):
Agent-Based Modelling, COVID-19, IgG, PCR Testing, Vaccination.
Abstract:
The eighth wave of Coronavirus infection in Tokyo hit high records in December 2022. This paper aims to build a Tokyo-based down-scaled simulation environment to explain the eight epidemic trends using agent-based modelling and extended SEIR denotation. Four key factors are examined in this research, that are: 1. Vaccination, 2. Virus mutation, 3. Government policy and 4. PCR test. Our investigation uncovers that the reported cases during the eight epidemic waves represent merely a fraction of the true extent of infections. Additionally, our study innovates by simulating the decline of antibodies at the individual level. Our study also innovates in combining agent-based modelling and extended SEIR modelling to simulate eight continuous epidemic waves in Tokyo, considering circumstances like Olympics, state of emergency declaration, traveling policies etc. Upon analyzing the simulated outcomes, we observe a correlation between the onset of new epidemic waves and the decrease in the po
pulation possessing antibodies. Our simulation further indicates the necessity for aligning the level of PCR testing with the available medical resources. Finally, by comparing the simulation results with actual data for the eighth wave, we forewarned of a potential resurgence in the epidemic during May and June 2023.
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