Authors:
Masayuki Higuma
1
and
Masao J.Matsumoto
2
Affiliations:
1
NEC Corporation, Japan
;
2
Kyusyu Sangyo University, Japan
Keyword(s):
Modeling,Framework,Demand forecast,Statistical analysis, society , economy, Simulation.
Related
Ontology
Subjects/Areas/Topics:
Databases and Information Systems Integration
;
Enterprise Information Systems
;
Enterprise Resource Planning
;
Enterprise Software Technologies
;
Information Engineering Methodologies
;
Information Systems Analysis and Specification
;
Modeling Concepts and Information Integration Tools
;
Simulation and Modeling
;
Simulation Tools and Platforms
;
Software Engineering
Abstract:
The Traffic demand of the communication has strong relations to the gross domestic product (GDP). Some statistical models are well known for the demand forecast. As such models, there are the Linear regression Model (LM) and the Auto Regression model (AR). However the LM cannot apply analyzing a traffic demand, because its relations between a GDP and a traffic demand have the non linear shape. Also the AR has problems ,which cannot reflect the impact of social and economical events ,and have big forecasting errors, because a traffic demand has a trend component. Therefore this study considers new a methodology of forecasting demands of the communication traffic, which has high quality by resolving the above problems, by modeling and evaluating social and economical events.