Authors:
Paolo Di Giamberardino
and
Daniela Iacoviello
Affiliation:
Dept. Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti, Sapienza University of Rome, via Ariosto 25, 00185 Rome and Italy
Keyword(s):
Epidemic Modeling, System Analysis, Optimal Control.
Related
Ontology
Subjects/Areas/Topics:
Engineering Applications
;
Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics
;
Intelligent Control Systems and Optimization
;
Robotics and Automation
;
Signal Processing, Sensors, Systems Modeling and Control
;
System Modeling
Abstract:
In this paper the problem of modeling and controlling the measles epidemic spread is faced. A new model is proposed and analysed; besides the categories usually considered in measles modeling, the susceptible, the exposed, the infected, the removed and, less frequently, the quarantine individuals, two new categories are herein introduced: the immunosuppressed subjects, that can not be vaccinated, and the patients with an additional complication, not risky by itself but dangerous if caught togeter with the measles. These two novelties are taken into account in designing and scheduling suitably control actions such as vaccination, whenever possible, prevention, quarantine and treatment, when limited resources are available. An analysis of the model is developed and the optimal control strategies are compared with other not optimized actions. By using the Pontryagin principle, it is shown the prevailing role of the vaccination in guaranteeing the protection to immunosuppressed individua
ls, as well as the importance of a prompt response of the society when an epidemic spread occurs, such as the quarantine intervention.
(More)