The Fuzzy Nature of Climate Change Scenarios Maps

Carlos Gay García; Oscar Sánchez Meneses

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Paper

The Fuzzy Nature of Climate Change Scenarios Maps

In Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCEC, 863-873, 2014 , Vienna, Austria

Authors: Carlos Gay García and Oscar Sánchez Meneses

Affiliation: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico

Keyword(s): Climate Change Uncertainties, Fuzzy Temperature and Precipitation, Linear Emission Pathways.

Abstract: The most important uncertainties present in the global change scenarios are the climate sensibility, represented by the wide variety of GCM´s available, and the uncertainty that comes from the different GHG emission scenarios. Starting from a fuzzy climate model constructed with concentrations of GHG, obtained as a result of linear emission pathways, and output temperatures obtained with a deterministic simple climate model (MAGICC) it has been determinate the output fuzzy set of global delta T thresholds such as 1, 2, 3 and 4 °C for 2100 and a medium sensibility of 3.0 °C/W/m2. These fuzzy sets are used for assign uncertainties to values of temperature increase and precipitation change percentage taken from a map of regional climate change and for interpret the map in a fuzzy sense. We present some maps of temperature increase and precipitation change percentage for Mexico.

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Paper citation in several formats:

Gay García, C. and Sánchez Meneses, O. (2014). The Fuzzy Nature of Climate Change Scenarios Maps. In Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH 2014) - MSCCEC; ISBN 978-989-758-038-3; ISSN 2184-2841, SciTePress, pages 863-873. DOI: 10.5220/0005141208630873

@conference{msccec14,
author={Carlos {Gay García}. and Oscar {Sánchez Meneses}.},
title={The Fuzzy Nature of Climate Change Scenarios Maps},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH 2014) - MSCCEC},
year={2014},
pages={863-873},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0005141208630873},
isbn={978-989-758-038-3},
issn={2184-2841},
}

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH 2014) - MSCCEC
TI - The Fuzzy Nature of Climate Change Scenarios Maps
SN - 978-989-758-038-3
IS - 2184-2841
AU - Gay García, C.
AU - Sánchez Meneses, O.
PY - 2014
SP - 863
EP - 873
DO - 10.5220/0005141208630873
PB - SciTePress