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Authors: Duygun Fatih Demirel and Melek Basak

Affiliation: Yeditepe University, Turkey

ISBN: 978-989-758-157-1

Keyword(s): Fuzzy Modeling, Lee-Carter Method, Human Mortality, Singular Value Decomposition, Fuzzy Regression, Unconstrained Nonlinear Optimization.

Related Ontology Subjects/Areas/Topics: Artificial Intelligence ; Biomedical Engineering ; Biomedical Signal Processing ; Computational Intelligence ; Computer-Supported Education ; Domain Applications and Case Studies ; Fuzzy Systems ; Fuzzy Systems Design, Modeling and Control ; Health Engineering and Technology Applications ; Human-Computer Interaction ; Industrial, Financial and Medical Applications ; Mathematical Foundations: Fuzzy Set Theory and Fuzzy Logic ; Methodologies and Methods ; Neural Networks ; Neurocomputing ; Neurotechnology, Electronics and Informatics ; Pattern Recognition ; Physiological Computing Systems ; Sensor Networks ; Signal Processing ; Soft Computing ; Theory and Methods

Abstract: Human mortality modeling and forecasting are important study fields since mortality rates are essential in financial and social policy making. Among many others, Lee Carter (LC) model is one of the most popular stochastic method in mortality forecasting. Koissi and Shapiro fuzzified the standard LC model and eliminated the assumptions of homoscedasticity and the ambiguity on the size of the error term variances. In this study, a modified version of fuzzy LC model incorporating singular value decomposition (SVD) technique is proposed. Utilizing SVD instead of ordinary least squares in the fuzzy LC model allows the model to capture existing fluctuations in mortality rates and yields a better fit. The proposed method is applied to Finland mortality data for years 1925 to 2009. The results are compared with Koissi and Shapiro’s fuzzy LC method and the standard LC method. Numerical findings show that proposed method gives statistically better results in generating small spreads and in esti mating mortality rates when compared with Koissi and Shapiro’s method. (More)

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Paper citation in several formats:
Demirel, D. and Basak, M. (2015). A Modified Fuzzy Lee-Carter Method for Modeling Human Mortality.In Proceedings of the 7th International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence - Volume 1: FCTA, (ECTA 2015) ISBN 978-989-758-157-1, pages 17-24. DOI: 10.5220/0005581700170024

@conference{fcta15,
author={Duygun Fatih Demirel. and Melek Basak.},
title={A Modified Fuzzy Lee-Carter Method for Modeling Human Mortality},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 7th International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence - Volume 1: FCTA, (ECTA 2015)},
year={2015},
pages={17-24},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0005581700170024},
isbn={978-989-758-157-1},
}

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 7th International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence - Volume 1: FCTA, (ECTA 2015)
TI - A Modified Fuzzy Lee-Carter Method for Modeling Human Mortality
SN - 978-989-758-157-1
AU - Demirel, D.
AU - Basak, M.
PY - 2015
SP - 17
EP - 24
DO - 10.5220/0005581700170024

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