Author:
Nina Kargapolova
Affiliation:
Laboratory of Stochastic Problems, Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics SB RAS, Pr. Ak. Lavrent’eva 6, Novosibirsk, Russia Department of Mathematics and Mechanics, Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk and Russia
Keyword(s):
Stochastic Simulation, Non-stationary Random Process, Heat Index, Air Temperature, Relative Humidity, Model Validation.
Related
Ontology
Subjects/Areas/Topics:
Complex Systems Modeling and Simulation
;
Environmental Modeling
;
Formal Methods
;
Mathematical Simulation
;
Simulation and Modeling
;
Stochastic Modeling and Simulation
Abstract:
In this paper two numerical stochastic models of time series of the average daily heat index are considered. In the first model, time series of the heat index are constructed as a function of simulated joint nonstationary time series of air temperature and relative humidity. The second model is constructed under the assumption that time series of the heat index are non-stationary non-Gaussian random processes. Data from real observations at weather stations were used for estimating models’ parameters. On the basis of the simulated trajectories, some statistical properties of rare meteorological events, like long periods of time with high heat index, are studied.