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Authors: Qing Pei 1 ; David D. Zhang 1 and Jingjing Xu 2

Affiliations: 1 The University of Hong Kong, China ; 2 PricewaterhouseCoopers, China

ISBN: 978-989-758-038-3

Keyword(s): ARX Modelling, Climate Change, Grain Market, Pre-Industrial Era, Western Europe.

Abstract: In academia, there are few studies adopted ARX modelling on historical datasets. Recently, the studies on notable effects of climatic changes upon past agrarian economy are paid by more attention. Here, this study first time seriously explores the relationship between climatic change and the grain market at a macro-scale in pre-industrial Western Europe by ARX modelling. The results show that a cold phase would raise grain price through lowering the supply in the grain market. Furthermore, according to the simulations on shortand long-term climate change, the long lasting climate change could be more disastrous to society than short-term change. Last, the application in the study proves ARX modelling is also a feasible choice in the field of historical research.

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Paper citation in several formats:
Pei, Q.; Zhang, D. and Xu, J. (2014). Price Responses of Grain Market under Climate Change in Pre-industrial Western Europe by ARX Modelling.In Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCEC, (SIMULTECH 2014) ISBN 978-989-758-038-3, pages 811-817. DOI: 10.5220/0005025208110817

@conference{msccec14,
author={Qing Pei. and David D. Zhang. and Jingjing Xu.},
title={Price Responses of Grain Market under Climate Change in Pre-industrial Western Europe by ARX Modelling},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCEC, (SIMULTECH 2014)},
year={2014},
pages={811-817},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0005025208110817},
isbn={978-989-758-038-3},
}

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCEC, (SIMULTECH 2014)
TI - Price Responses of Grain Market under Climate Change in Pre-industrial Western Europe by ARX Modelling
SN - 978-989-758-038-3
AU - Pei, Q.
AU - Zhang, D.
AU - Xu, J.
PY - 2014
SP - 811
EP - 817
DO - 10.5220/0005025208110817

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