Authors:
Guillermo Machado
1
;
Valeria Lupiano
2
;
Gino Mirocle Crisci
2
and
Salvatore Di Gregorio
2
Affiliations:
1
University of Calabria and National University of Chimborazo, Italy
;
2
University of Calabria, Italy
Keyword(s):
Modelling, Simulation, Cellular Automata, Lahars, Cotopaxi, Natural Hazard, LLUNPIY.
Related
Ontology
Subjects/Areas/Topics:
Complex Systems Modeling and Simulation
;
Environmental Modeling
;
Formal Methods
;
Risk Analysis
;
Simulation and Modeling
Abstract:
Cotopaxi volcano is one of the most studied and surveyed volcanos in the world because the repetition of
the 1877 catastrophic lahar invasion, is not implausible, threatening now more than 100,000 persons. A
reliable forecasting tool is very important for projecting security measures. LLUNPIY is a Cellular
Automata model for simulating lahars in terms of complex system evolving on the base of local interaction.
Here, LLUNPIY extension is applied to Cotopaxi event of 1877 primary lahars, after the successful
simulation of some secondary lahars of Tungurahua volcano. Such an extension permitted simulations with
different initial hypotheses: our preliminary simulations agree in outline with field studies about the
evolution of event, moreover LLUNPIY permits a broader approach to overall phenomenon in comparison
with other tools.