Authors:
Miguel Cruz Vasquez
1
and
Fernando Vera Sánchez
2
Affiliations:
1
Facultad de Economía, Universidad Popular Autónoma del Estado de Puebla, 17 Sur 901, Puebla, Mexico
;
2
Escuela de Economía y Negocios, Universidad Anáhuac de Puebla, Avenida Orion Norte S/No., Tlaxcalancingo, Mexico
Keyword(s):
Remittances, Economic Variables, Financial Variables, VAR, DAG.
Abstract:
This work seeks to analyze whether economic or financial variables are more important in determining the remittances sent by Mexican migrants in the United States to their communities of origin. For this, we estimate three models: a linear regression model with all the variables transformed to first differences, to eliminate the possibility of spurious regression; an autoregressive vector (VAR) model that approximates the relationships between variables in the absence of consolidated theories; and Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) model, which is the most appropriate for estimating causal relationships between variables. The results show that the most important variables in determining the remittances of Mexican migrants in the United States are the economic ones, specifically, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Mexico.