Authors:
Ismail Elhassnaoui
1
;
Wafae El Harraki
1
;
Ahmed Bouziane
1
;
Driss Ouazar
1
and
Moulay Driss Hasnaoui
2
Affiliations:
1
Mohammadia School of Engineers, Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco
;
2
Ministry of Equipment, Transport, Logistics and Water, Rabat, Morocco
Keyword(s):
Climate change; HEC-HMS; RCP; Spatial Downscaling
Abstract:
This study aims to assess future inflows of Hassan-Addakhil dam in front of hydroclimatic variation under climate change. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) precipitation data was downscaled for Foum Tilicht and Foum Zaabel rain gauge stations at a daily time-scale, using SDSM software considering the baseline period 1983-2012. Future precipitation projections over the period 2013-2100, were generated for three Representative Concentration Pathway, namely RCP 2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Besides, the future hydrologic projection was conducted through HEC-HMS. The results show that the sum of precipitations would increase for Foum Zaabel compared to the reference period by 14% for RCP2.6, 11% for 4.5%, and 14% for RCP8.5 in the 2050s. For the 2080s these changes would move to 11%, 14%, and 15% for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP 8.5 respectively. Concerning Foum Tilicht, this increase is estimated at 22%, 19%, and 20% for RCP 2.6 and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the 2050s, whereas i
n the 2080s it's around 21% for and 22%. The Future projection of the Hassan Addakhil dam inflow, under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, shows that the maximum and the minimum inflow is likely to occur during October and July respectively
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