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Authors: Bajis M. Dodin 1 and Abdelghani A. Elimam 2

Affiliations: 1 Alfaisal University, Saudi Arabia ; 2 American University in Cairo, Egypt

Keyword(s): Probabilistic Durations, Network Structure, Simulation, Sample Size, Project Variance.

Related Ontology Subjects/Areas/Topics: Application Domains ; Artificial Intelligence ; Business Analytics ; Cardiovascular Technologies ; Case Studies ; Computing and Telecommunications in Cardiology ; Construction Engineering and Project Management ; Data Engineering ; Decision Support Systems ; Decision Support Systems, Remote Data Analysis ; Domain-Specific Tools ; Formal Methods ; Health Engineering and Technology Applications ; Knowledge-Based Systems ; Neural Rehabilitation ; Neurotechnology, Electronics and Informatics ; Simulation and Modeling ; Simulation Tools and Platforms ; Stochastic Modeling and Simulation ; Symbolic Systems

Abstract: Stochastic Activity Networks (SANs) are used in modeling and managing projects that are characterized by uncertainty. SANs are primarily managed using Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS). The accuracy of the results obtained from MCS depends on the sample size. So far the required sample size has been determined arbitrarily and independent of the characteristics of the SAN such as the number of activities and their underlying distributions, number of paths, and the structure of the SAN. In this paper we show that the accuracy of the SANs simulation results would depend on the sample size. Contrary to existing practices, we show that such sample size must reflect the project size and structure, as well as the number of activities. We propose an optimization-based approach to determine the project variance, which in turn is used to determine the number of replications in SAN simulations.

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Paper citation in several formats:
M. Dodin, B. and A. Elimam, A. (2015). Simulation of Stochastic Activity Networks. In Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - SIMULTECH; ISBN 978-989-758-120-5; ISSN 2184-2841, SciTePress, pages 205-211. DOI: 10.5220/0005561502050211

@conference{simultech15,
author={Bajis {M. Dodin}. and Abdelghani {A. Elimam}.},
title={Simulation of Stochastic Activity Networks},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - SIMULTECH},
year={2015},
pages={205-211},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0005561502050211},
isbn={978-989-758-120-5},
issn={2184-2841},
}

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - SIMULTECH
TI - Simulation of Stochastic Activity Networks
SN - 978-989-758-120-5
IS - 2184-2841
AU - M. Dodin, B.
AU - A. Elimam, A.
PY - 2015
SP - 205
EP - 211
DO - 10.5220/0005561502050211
PB - SciTePress