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Authors: Alexandra Nielsen and Wayne Wakeland

Affiliation: Portland State University, United States

Keyword(s): Prescription Drug Abuse, System Dynamics Modelling, Opioid Analgesics.

Related Ontology Subjects/Areas/Topics: Application Domains ; Applications and Uses ; Biomedical Engineering ; Complex Systems Modeling and Simulation ; Health Information Systems ; Healthcare ; Sensor Networks ; Simulation and Modeling ; Social Systems Simulation

Abstract: The objective of the study was to develop a system dynamics model of the medical use of pharmaceutical opioids, and the associated diversion and nonmedical use of these drugs. The model was used to test the impact of simulated interventions in this complex system. The study relied on secondary data obtained from the literature and from other public sources for the period 1995 to 2008. In addition, an expert panel provided recommendations regarding model parameters and model structure. The behaviour of the resulting systems-level model compared favourably with reference behaviour data (R2=.95). After the base model was tested, logic to simulate interventions was added and the impact on overdose deaths was evaluated over a seven-year period, 2008-2015. Principal findings were that the introduction of a tamper resistant formulation unexpectedly increased total overdose deaths. This was due to increased prescribing which counteracted the drop in the death rate. We conclude that it is im portant to choose metrics carefully, and that the system dynamics modelling approach can help to evaluate interventions intended to ameliorate the adverse outcomes in the complex system associated with treating pain via opioids. (More)

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Paper citation in several formats:
Nielsen, A. and Wakeland, W. (2012). Dynamic Simulation of Opioid Misuse Outcomes. In Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - SIMULTECH; ISBN 978-989-8565-20-4; ISSN 2184-2841, SciTePress, pages 397-408. DOI: 10.5220/0004062103970408

@conference{simultech12,
author={Alexandra Nielsen. and Wayne Wakeland.},
title={Dynamic Simulation of Opioid Misuse Outcomes},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - SIMULTECH},
year={2012},
pages={397-408},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0004062103970408},
isbn={978-989-8565-20-4},
issn={2184-2841},
}

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - SIMULTECH
TI - Dynamic Simulation of Opioid Misuse Outcomes
SN - 978-989-8565-20-4
IS - 2184-2841
AU - Nielsen, A.
AU - Wakeland, W.
PY - 2012
SP - 397
EP - 408
DO - 10.5220/0004062103970408
PB - SciTePress

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