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Authors: Paula Maçaira ; Margarete Afonso de Sousa ; Reinaldo Souza and Fernando Oliveira

Affiliation: Industrial Engineering Department, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro, Rua Marquês de São Vicente, 225, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

ISBN: 978-989-758-352-0

Keyword(s): Forecasting, Time Series, Hydroelectric Power Generation, Distributed Generation, Small Hydropower Plant, Exogeneous Variables.

Abstract: Assertiveness in generation forecast is an important issue for utilities when they are planning their operation. Hydropower Generation forecast has a strong stochastic component and thinking about small hydropower plants (SHP) is even more complex. In recent years, many SHP was installed in Brazil due to a Government incentive and the distributed generation penetration has an impact in technical losses’ estimation. The objective of this study is to propose a methodology to generate synthetic scenarios of distributed generation for hydro sources. A case study was carried on with historical generation data from SHP located in Minas Gerais. The periodic regression model was considered the best model for forecast hydropower generation. Three distributed generation scenarios are obtained using Conditional Value at Risk analysis after combining multiple scenarios from inflow forecasting generated with the periodic regression model.

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Paper citation in several formats:
Maçaira, P.; Afonso de Sousa, M.; Souza, R. and Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz (2019). Risk Analysis of Distributed Generation Scenarios.In Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES, ISBN 978-989-758-352-0, pages 378-383. DOI: 10.5220/0007389203780383

@conference{icores19,
author={Paula Medina Ma\c{C}aira. and Margarete Afonso de Sousa. and Reinaldo Castro Souza. and Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz},
title={Risk Analysis of Distributed Generation Scenarios},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES,},
year={2019},
pages={378-383},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0007389203780383},
isbn={978-989-758-352-0},
}

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES,
TI - Risk Analysis of Distributed Generation Scenarios
SN - 978-989-758-352-0
AU - Maçaira, P.
AU - Afonso de Sousa, M.
AU - Souza, R.
AU - Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz
PY - 2019
SP - 378
EP - 383
DO - 10.5220/0007389203780383

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