Authors:
Yanxian Tan
;
Hui Wang
and
Xueqin Tan
Affiliation:
Software Engineering Institute of Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
Keyword(s):
Internet+, Commercial Banking, Financial Markets, Profitability, Decision Making Research.
Abstract:
With the continuous progress and prosperity of mobile Internet science and technology, relying on it and the operation of Internet finance is also natural, and with its advantages of high transparency, good cooperation, intermediate costs and low cost, quickly occupied China’s financial market. Based on the measurement and analysis of the risk value of Internet finance and commercial banks, this paper studies the risk spillover effect of Internet finance on commercial banks from the macro and micro levels. Based on the principle of minimum AIC, BIC and maximum likelihood, this paper selects the best ArMA-GARCH model for the selected 2 groups of index series and 13 groups of return series, and calculates their risk value and risk spillover value on the basis of fitting (Wang 2021). In the aspect of risk measurement, the value of risk is quantized by calculating the value of risk (Va R), and in the aspect of risk spillover, the risk spillover effect is comprehensively analyzed by calcu
lating the conditional value of risk (Co Va R), its derived index risk spillover value (△Co Va R) and relative risk spillover degree (%Co Va R). The empirical results show that the impact of Internet financial risks makes commercial banks suffer from positive risk spillover, but there is no consistency between macro and micro in the direction of risk spillover (Liu ). On the macro level, the empirical results show that Internet finance has positive risk spillover to commercial banks, but on the micro level, Yu ’ebao has positive and negative risk spillover to 12 commercial banks, and the spillover directions of different commercial banks are not consistent. In terms of overflow intensity, there is no uniform rule for different types of commercial banks.
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