Authors:
Jason B. Scholz
;
Gregory J. Calbert
and
Glen A. Smith
Affiliation:
Defence Science and Technology Organisation, Australia
Keyword(s):
Multi-agent theory, Group decision making, Expected utility, Alliance, Risk, Influence.
Related
Ontology
Subjects/Areas/Topics:
Agent Models and Architectures
;
Agents
;
Artificial Intelligence
;
Cognitive Systems
;
Computational Intelligence
;
Evolutionary Computing
;
Group Decision Making
;
Soft Computing
;
Symbolic Systems
Abstract:
The development of societies of human and machine agents should benefit from an understanding of human group decision processes. Political Scientist and Professor, Bruce Bueno De Mesquita has made significant claims for the predictive accuracy of his computational model of group decision making, receiving much popular press including newspaper articles, books and a television documentary entitled “The New Nostradamus”. Despite these and many journal and conference publications related to the topic, no clear elicitation of the model exists in the open literature. We expose and present the model by careful navigation of the literature and illustrate the soundness of our interpretation by replicating De Mesquita’s own results. We also discuss concerns regarding model sensitivity and convergence.