COGNITIVE APPROACH TO PROBLEM SOLVING
OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC OBJECT DEVELOPMENT
Z. Avdeeva, S. Kovriga and D. Makarenko
Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences, Profsouznaya st., Moscow, 117997, Russia
Keywords: Strategic management, social-economic object, problem-solving, decision support, semi-structured
problems, cognitive map, cognitive modeling.
Abstract: The basic technique of problem-solving is structurization of knowledge about object and its environment
and construction of a cognitive model. The technique includes monitoring of dynamics of factors of the
model (their tendencies), analysis of the model structure with the use of SWOT-approach, and modeling that
permits to determine and solve semi-structured problems. The technique allows supporting of a vital control
task that consists in goal setting of socio-economic object development, as far as solution of discovered
problems turns into the system development control task. The application of technique is useful when
designing a strategy of development of social and economic objects.
1 INTRODUCTION
Traditional methods of decision theory concentrate
attention on processes of search of optimal solution
amongst the fixed set of alternatives in order to
achieve accurately set goals. Problem identification,
goal setting, and alternatives generating issues, as a
rule, stay apart.
In real situations of social and economic object
(enterprises, cities, regions, states, etc.) control there
often arises a task, which consists in the analysis of a
situation in order to reveal a problem and the reasons
of it's appearance.
Cognitive approach to SEO modelling is directed
to development of formal models and methods that
support the intellectual process of problem solving
owing to taking into account the cognitive abilities
(perception, representation, cognition,
understanding, explanation) of control agents.
The Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian
Academy of Sciences has developed the technique
of problem solving of SEO development on the basis
of cognitive approach to modeling.
Cognitive modelling is a research of SEO
functioning and development by means of creation
of a situation model on the basis of a cognitive map.
In the model a cognitive map reflects the subjective
representations of a problem or a situation,
connected with SEO functioning and development.
2 THE TECHNIQUE OF
PROBLEM SOLVING OF SEO
DEVELOPMENT
2.1 Construction of Model of SEO
Development
The model construction is based on the cognitive
structurization of knowledge about object and its
environment.
The purpose of structuring is revealing of the
most essential factors describe a “boundary” layer of
interaction of object and external environment, and
establishment of qualitative relationships of cause
and effect between them.
The cognitive structurization is finished by
formalization of singled out knowledge that consists
in generalization of essential information into a
system of basic factors.
Analysis of a graph model of a situation
associated with a cognitive map allows to reveal the
structural properties of a situation. The basis of the
model is a weighed digraph G =(X, A), where X is a
set of nodes that biuniquely corresponds to the set of
basic factors, A is a set of arcs reflecting the fact of
direct influence of factors. Each arc connecting
some factor xi with some factor x
j
has the weight a
ij
which sign depicts the sign of influence of the factor
xi on the factor x
j
, and the absolute value of a
ij
432
Avdeeva Z., Kovriga S. and Makarenko D. (2007).
COGNITIVE APPROACH TO PROBLEM SOLVING OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC OBJECT DEVELOPMENT.
In Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics, pages 432-435
DOI: 10.5220/0001621704320435
Copyright
c
 SciTePress

depicts the strength of the influence. Thus, the
cognitive map can be examined as a connectivity
matrix A
g
of the graph G.
When constructing a cognitive map of
SEO
development set of basic factors, X, is grouped in
blocks relevant to external environment, X
ext
, and
an internal environment
SEO , X
int
= X\X
ext
. Besides
determination of factors and influence between them
the vector of initial factor trends, X
ext
(0) ∪ X
int
(0), is
established.
The dynamic model is constructed to obtain a
new knowledge of structure and dynamics of
situations under research. On the basis of that model
the one carries out scenario research with use of
methods of computer modelling of self-development
and controlled development of SEO (Maximov,
2001; Maximov and Kornoushenko, 2001; Avdeeva,
et al., 2003; Makarenko, et al., 2004).
Behavior of factors in time is described by
dynamic linear model
(
)
i
iiijjj
jI
x(t 1) x(t) b x(t) x(t 1)
∈
+= + − −
∑
,
(1
)
where x
i
(t+1) and x
i
(t) – value of factor i in t+1 and t
time points accordingly, i=1, 2, …, N; x
j
(t) – x
j
(t–1)
= Δx
j
(t) – increment of factor x
j
in t time point,
describing the rate of change (tendency) of x
j
; b
ij
–
strength of influence of factor x
j
on factor x
i
,
corresponding to matrix B element (B = A
g
’
); I
i
–set
of numbers of factors directly influencing the factor
x
i
.
The input parameters are the initial rates of change
of factors (initial tendencies), that describe a situation's
history. Actually, values of factors are not fixed, i.e.
dynamics of change of a situation is being simulated on
the basis of factors' increments.
2.2 SWOT-Analysis on the Basis
of Analysis of the Model Structure
Generally, SWOT-analysis is expert determination
of strength and weaknesses of SEO, opportunities
and threats of its environment, and estimation of
their interaction. Results of SWOT-analysis are
represented as a matrix “Window of opportunities”.
The mathematical procedure of generation of
matrix “window of opportunities” on the basis of
analysis of structural features of SEO development
cognitive map has been worked out. Thus, there is
no necessity in regular attraction of experts with all
accompanying procedures.
The essence of the procedure of SWOT-analysis
is the following.
Analyzing a situation of SEO development, it is
possible to put forward various hypotheses about
desirable dynamics of any factor of the model. So,
the parameter “attitude to factor dynamics” (AFD) is
brought in for each factor of the model. If dynamics
of a factor is positive (negative) AFD is equal 1 (–1).
If it is difficult to evaluate the factor dynamics its
AFD is equal 0. The set of AFD vector on some set
of model factors reflects desirable change of a
situation in SEO.
Let's designate through R
ext
(X
ext
), R
int
(X
int
)
vectors of AFD of factors of the external and
internal environment, where X
ext
∪ X
int
= X; X
ext
(0),
X
int
(0) – vectors of initial trends accordingly.
While the situation evolves each factor is being
influenced not only by “neighbouring” factors, but
also by more “distant” ones and these indirect
influences are transferred through chains of the
appropriate factors and graph arcs that connect them.
Set of influences both direct, and indirect to which
each factor in a situation is subject, is described with
the use of concept of transitive closure of a cognitive
map of the situation.
To determine the transitive closure it will suffice
to consider N terms in a power series of matrix B,
where N - the order of matrix B, i.e. number of basic
factors in a cognitive map of a situation. Then the
transitive closure of matrix B is estimated by matrix:
Q = E
N
+ B + B
2
+ … + B
N
≅ (E
N
– B)
–1
(2
)
When constructing a matrix “Window of
opportunities” opportunities and threats of the
environment, strengths and weaknesses of SEO are
determined on the basis of observation of the
dynamics of model factors and estimations of their
integrated influence on desirable dynamics of factors
R
ext
(X
ext
) и R
int
(X
int
) . The significance of strengths
and weaknesses of SEO
is determined as well.
Let us introduce the basic definitions.
Definition 1. If the initial trend of the internal
environment factor, x
i
int
(0), is negative, i.e. does not
correspond to a desirable direction of change (AFD),
the given factor is regarded as a weakness of
functioning and development of SEO, otherwise (the
trend is favourable) - as a strength of object. The
weaknesses determine internal threatening trends to
SEO development, and strengths - internal
favourable trends.
Using a terminology of SWOT-analysis, we shall
designate X
st
– a subset of factors–strengths of SEO,
X
w
– a subset of the factor–weaknesses of SEO,
X
st
∪X
w
⊂X
int
.
COGNITIVE APPROACH TO PROBLEM SOLVING OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC OBJECT DEVELOPMENT
433

Definition 2. The initial factor trend from X
influences positively on desirable dynamics of the
factor from X if the following is fair
sign(x
i
(0)q
ij
) = r
j
(x
j
),
where q
ij
– (i,j) element of a transitive closure
matrix Q, which determines integrated influence of i
factor on the j factor; q
ij
=0 if x
i
does not influence
x
j
.
If AFD of some factors are given equal to zero
(r
j
(x
j
) = 0) such factors are excluded from the
analysis (integrated influences on them of other
factors are not taken into account).
The following definitions follow from definition 2.
Definition 3. The factor of an environment x
i
ext
is
neutral for X
int
, if the initial trend of this factor does
not influence (q
ij
=0) the desirable dynamics of all
factors of the internal environment of SEO, X
int
.
Definition 4. The factor of environment
x
i
ext
characterizes the opportunity for SEO development
if the factor is not neutral and its initial trends does
not negatively influence (through the appropriate
integrated influences) the desirable dynamics of all
factors of internal environment of SEO, R
int
(X
int
). In
other words the initial trend of factor
x
i
ext
promotes
SEO development in a desirable direction.
Definition 5. The trend of the environment factor
x
i
ext
threatens the SEO development, if it negatively
influences (through the appropriate integrated
influences) desirable dynamics even of one factor of
internal
environment x
j
int
∈X
int
.
Using a terminology of SWOT-analysis, we shall
designate X
op
– a subset of factors–opportunities for
SEO development, X
th
– a subset of factors–threats
to SEO development, X
op
∪ X
th
⊂ X
ext
.
Definition 6. The internal environment factor,
x
i
int
,is neutral for X
ext
, if the initial trend of the
factor does not influence (q
ij
=0) the desirable
dynamics of the environment factors
X
ext
.
Definition 7. The internal environment factor,
x
i
int
, promotes strengthening of the opportunity of
environment
x
j
op
if x
i
int
is not neutral and its initial
trend favourably influences (through the appropriate
integrated influence) the desirable dynamics of the
factor
x
j
op
. Otherwise x
i
int
promotes decrease of the
opportunity of environment.
Definition 8. The internal environment factor
x
i
int
promotes parrying of threats of environment
x
j
th
if
x
i
int
is not neutral and its initial trend favorably
influences (through the appropriate integrated
influence) the desirable dynamics of the factor
x
j
th
.
Otherwise
x
i
int
promotes strengthening of threats of
environment.
On the basis of definitions 1-8 SWOT-analysis
comes to the following stages:
1. Building of cognitive map of SEO
development with extraction of external X
ext
and
internal blocks of factors. Vector of initial trends of
factors X
ext
(0) and X
int
(0) is set.
2. AFD for each factor R
ext
(X
ext
), R
int
(X
int
) is set.
3. Strengths and weaknesses for each object (X
st
and X
w
) are found on the basis of the vector X
int
(0).
4. Matrix of transitive closure Q (2) is used to
build
− matrix “Window of opportunities ext-int” on
the basis of which opportunities X
op
and threats X
th
of environment and their importance (how great is
their influence on factors of internal environment)
are determined, X
op
∪X
th
⊂X
ext
;
− matrix “Window of opportunities int-ext” with
the purpose of determination of internal
opportunities of SEO that can neutralize the threats
of environment X
th
, and also the problems
connected with possible negative influence of SEO
on environment X
ext
;
− matrix “Window of opportunities op-th”. The
analysis of interferences between opportunities and
threats allows to reveal opportunities which promote
parrying of threats;
− matrix “Window of opportunities st-w” for
revealing the latent internal opportunities allowing
to remove weaknesses of SEO due to advantages.
As a result of the analysis all factors are being
grouped into the following classes: S (Strengths), W
(Weaknesses), O (Opportunities), T (Threats).
Factors inside of each class are being ranked
according to the force of their favourable
(unfavourable) influence on the factors of another
class. This procedure lets us estimate the importance
of strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and
threats for SEO development.
2.3 Structure and Goal Analysis of
SEO Development
When setting the goals of a SEO development a
decision maker doesn't always manage to trace if the
goals he has set are inconsistent, i.e. reaching of a
goal will prevent from reaching of another one.
Inconsistency of goals can also be influenced by the
chosen ways of their reaching.
Thus, it is very important to reveal the
contradictions already at the stage of goal setting.
The technique of the structure and goal analysis
of SEO development. allows to determine integrated
(direct and all possible indirect) influences of one
factor on the other and due to it to reveal
ICINCO 2007 - International Conference on Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics
434

inconsistencies between goal and control factors.
The structure and goal analysis also allows to
determine the most effective controls.
Thus, the structural analysis of cognitive model
of a situation development under control consists of
the following stages:
Stage 1 - analysis of goals (coordinates of a
vector of goals) on mutual consistency in order to
answer the question “whether the vector of goals
(fixed or unfixed) is inconsistent, i.e. whether the
reaching of any of goals (coordinates in a vector of
the given goals) will prevent from reaching of other
goals?”
When the consistent vector of goals is formed the
desirable integrated change of any of goal factors
will not result in undesirable integrated change of
other goal factors in a vector of goals.
Stage 2 - check of a consistency of the set of
control factors with the given vector of goals, i.e.
whether the change of the value of any control factor
(with the help of the appropriate control) will
promote reaching of some goals in a vector of goals
and at the same time prevent from reaching of other
goals of a vector of goals.
Stage 3 - estimation of efficiency of influence of
control factors on all coordinates of the vector of
goals. Such estimation is useful when choosing the
most effective control factors the changes of which
with the help of the selected control actions will
provide the purposeful development of a situation.
Formally, the parameter of efficiency is
determined as absolute value of the sum of
coefficients of influence of the given control factor
on the goal factors multiplied by AFD of the goal
factors.
2.4 Scenario Modelling
Scenario research (Maximov, 2001; Maximov and
Kornoushenko, 2001; Avdeeva, et al., 2003;
Makarenko, et al., 2004) allows to develop various
variants of SEO development in view of arising
trends (favourable and negative) of environment.
Scenario consists of a set of factor trends
describing a situation at the present moment,
desirable goals, a set of activities that are used upon
the running of a situation, and system of observable
parameters (factors) illustrating behaviour of
processes.
Self-development of a situation represents
evolution of an initial condition of a situation in
SEO. Results of such modelling answer the
question: what can take place of the existing trends
of SEO development are preserved?
Controlled development of a situation is
determined by the chosen goal of control.
On the basis of results of SWOT- and Structure
and goal analysis we form the set of vectors of goals
of SEO and vectors of controls that reflect possible
strategy of secure SEO development.
The combination of the stages described above
enables one to diagnose and define problems in SEO
development and find ways of its solution and form
well-founded goals and strategy of SEO
development.
3 CONCLUSIONS
The result of application of the technique is the
project of strategy of SEO development in the form
of goals and main ways of its reaching. Goal-setting
issues from forecasting and analysis of problems.
Cognitive model, which is used in the basis of the
technique, gives an opportunity to use monitoring
data and quickly correct models with the purpose to
analyzing new problems.
REFERENCES
Avdeeva, Z., Kovriga, S., Makarenko, D., and Maximov,
V., 2003. Goal Setting and Structure and Goal
Analysis of Complex Systems and Situations. In
ASBoHS’03, 8th IFAC Symposium on Automated
Systems Based on Human Skill and Knowledge.
Göteborg: IFAC.
Makarenko, D., Avdeeva, Z., and Maximov, V., 2004.
Cognitive Approach to Control of Socio-Economic
Systems Security. In SMC’04, Proceedings of the
IEEE International Conference “Systems, Men &
Cybernetics”. Hague: IEEE.
Maximov, V., Kornoushenko, E., 2001. Analytical Basics
of Construction the Graph and Computer Models for
Complicated Situations. In INCOM’01, Proceedings of
the 10th IFAC Symposium on Information Control
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Maximov, V., 2001. Cognitive Analysis and Situation
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