Strategic analysis he considered the impact that the
recent launch of 3G had had on the first round of 2G
retention campaign execution, and in Strategic
choice he decided to hand segment 2 over to the 3G
acquisition manager for migration onto the 3G
network (T and P), to a technology that better
matched this behavioural profile. This further
contributed to attaining the ROMI target, because
they did not have to fund any 2G replacement
handsets for this segment, and this segment’s uptake
of 3G was very high.
In light of some evidence that demographics
were not driving churn, the retention manager
reformulated the retention offer content (P) for
segments 1, 3, 4 and 5. Previously, males in the 19 –
25 age group had received a promotional ticket
concession to Australian Football League (AFL)
matches, based on the assumption that most males in
this age group followed AFL. Now, the AFL
promotion was offered to all targeted individuals
who had a history of requesting sms results of AFL
games, irrespective of their demographic. Also,
where previously there had been replacement of all
2G handsets irrespective of use level, now 2G
handsets were promoted only to individuals with
medium-use patterns; individuals with low-use
patterns had to buy a replacement handset (recall
that high users were migrated to 3G).
4.6 Monitor and Control
On the SAM-based project, the response rates
increased about 75% over the pre-data-mining basis.
This exceeded the business target of 50%, and the
25% improvement on the CRISP-DM-driven
project. Notably, there was a 90% uptake of the 3G
offer by segment 2 members. The CRISP-DM
project brought a 10% ROMI improvement over the
base (before CRISP-DM pilot) situation, while the
SAM project’s ROMI improved 30% over base. The
smaller ROMI improvement compared to the
campaign response improvements, are attributed to
fixed campaign costs remaining from the pre-data-
mining mining era; over time ROMI will improve as
the organization addresses these costs.
The value of a data-mining approach that
supports marketing STP was now well understood
by management and proved to the business. The
business responded with a request to monitor the
extent of the churn risk in the database and assist in
formulating responses. We monitored drift in the
sum of scored p_values within quintiles with every
quarterly database re-scoring, and relating these to
change in the campaign response rate. The project
iterated through the Analysis, Choice, and Definition
phases and we formulated various controls for this
phenomenon. For instance, if both sum of p_values
and campaign response are in decline (scenario 1),
the business solution is to address the drivers of the
problem. The first control response is to retrain the
model to maintain accuracy. If after a model retrain
the sum of p_values and campaign response still are
in decline, it indicates that the business solution is
also weeding out potential churners, and may be
approaching a situation of diminishing returns with
retention. The response is to fine-tune the campaign
offers (scenario 2). If with model retraining (and in
some cases after campaign refining) the sum of
p_values keep increasing while the campaign
response rates are in decline, then circumstances in
the business operating or marketing environments
are not represented in the data. The response is to
undertake qualitative research to identify these
circumstances, and to update the campaigns
(scenario 3).
We found that the three scenarios actually
manifested themselves in this order over scoring
cycles 2-4. In cycle 4, the 2G retention manager was
convinced that the point of diminishing returns had
been reached with 2G retention, with consensus in
the business, that most of the 2G churn risk had been
‘weeded’. This was the result of events that were not
reflected in the data, namely (1) the business had
stopped acquiring 2G customers with the launch of
3G in quarter 1, and (2) by the fourth quarter 3G was
cannibalising the mid- and high-user 2G business.
Since the revenue and margins in 3G were superior
to those in 2G, the business now had sufficient
evidence to abandon the 2G retention program.
The concept of interacting behavioural churn
drivers was now well understood and proved to the
business, and there was a necessity for monitoring
any drift in churn drivers, and their interactions, over
time. In the second SAM campaign cycle, we started
to rebuild the predictive model and the segmentation
on a monthly basis, and to monitor drift in effect
scores and segment parameters.
One noticeable drift in effects was the
diminishing impact of the high-use and handset type
combination. We attribute this to the fact that we
were gradually moving the high-use customers over
to 3G. What did emerge in its place was a
combination of over-3-years customer tenure, over-
18-month minimum contract plan types, and a 26-34
year-age demographic. It was now apparent, that our
own and emerging competitive 3G advertising, was
influencing the traditionally more conservative
customers in this age group to switch brand or
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