problem related to ATMs network management and
research achievements in field of ATM networks
optimization. The chapter 3 presents the suggested
ATM cash optimization system. The overview of the
architecture of the ATMs network cash management
system is described in the 4
th
chapter.
2 RELEVANCE OF THE CASH
MANAGEMENT PROBLEM
Operating a network of ATMs involves plenty of
different functions: purchasing and installing of
ATMs, processing transactions, clearing paper jams,
repairing broken parts, picking up and processing
deposits, and also replenishing cash (D’Ambrosio, et
al., 2006). Expenses and operational efficiency is
determined by ability of deplorers to manage these
functions. Operating expenses can be divided into
two main categories: Cash-Related and Non-Cash-
Related. Cash-Related expenses, such as cash
replenishment, costs of fund, and back office
operating account cover almost one third of the total
expenses in USA, 59 % in Baltic States, 60 % in
Asia. The ATM owners are more aware of the
impact that the cost of funds make on their daily
operations because of recent tendency of rising
interest rates. Creating cash optimization system of
ATM networks could help to significantly reduce the
ATMs total operating costs.
The most relevant analysis in the field of ATM
networks optimization mainly relates to topics of
optimal size of ATMs network (McAndrews, J. and
Rob, R., 1996; Heli Snellman and Matti Viren,
2006), demand for cash (Adam R. Brentnall, et al.,
2008; Amromin, E. and S. Chakravorti, 2007), and
cash demand forecasting and optimization for the
ATMs network, presented in Simutis et al (Simutis
R., et al., 2007; Simutis R., Dilijonas D., et al., 2007;
Simutis R., Dilijonas D., et al., 2008), formed the
background for the recent study and is more
extensively described in the following chapters.
Other researches related to financial optimization
using neural networks discus bankruptcy prediction
problem (P. Ravi Kumar, V. Ravi, 2007), credit risk
analysis (Lean Yu, et al., 2009), but does not address
the problems of system implementation in
distributed services networks.
We have compared flexible ANN model with
SVM (support vector machines) (Simutis R., et al.,
2008). Forecasting results for real ATMs were using
flexible ANN model MAPE (mean average
proportional error) varied between 15-28% and for
SVR models between 17-40%. The obtained
forecasting results are in some confrontation with
the today’s opinion about the possibilities of SVR
techniques. SVM/SVR (support vector regression) is
assumed to be “next generation” technique and some
of “panacea” for classification and forecasting tasks.
The analysis of the literature sources has shown
that there are no studies in this area (practical
implementation of cash demand prediction in ATM
networks using hybrid artificial intelligence
methods). The extensive scientific research materials
present only theoretical frameworks, based on the
statistical and economical analysis perspectives.
3 FORECASTING METHOD
BASED ON FLEXIBLE NEURAL
NETWORK
The system is created by using artificial neural
networks for prognosis and optimization. The
rational agent technologies are used for data
collection in the distributed ATMs networks.
Combining both technologies creates the advantage
of managing cash optimization dynamically in
complex systems, by considering different needs of
the participants.
For every ATM machine a separate three-layer
feed-forward neural network was designed. The
neural network was trained using Levenberg-
Marquardt optimization method and RMS (root
mean square) error between predicted and real value.
Regularization term was also included in the training
criterion (Haykin S., 1999). The input variables for
ANN were the coded values of weekday, day of the
month, month of the year, holiday effect value and
average daily cash demand for ATM in last week.
The output variable of ANN was cash demand for
the ATM for the next basic time interval. For the
simplification purpose the ANN structure was
chosen the same for all ATMs in the network (the
same inputs and the same 15 hyperbolic tangent
neurons of hidden units in ANN).
Therefore we proposed a special flexible neural
network design procedure for cash demand
prediction for every local ATM. The realization of
the proposed procedure and this execution steps are
presented in Simutis R., et al. (Simutis R., et al.,
2007; Simutis R., Dilijonas D., et al., 2008)
Fig. 1 shows the efficiency of the cash upload
optimization procedure. Simulation parameters:
Number of ATMs=1225; Annual interest rate=6%;
Cost of cash uploading in ATM=1 million LT
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