unknown variables by their estimates. The second
method is the cautious control method (Goodwin and
Sin, 1984; Apley, 2004; Campi and Prandini, 2003;
Herzallah and Lowe, 2007) which takes the uncer-
tainty of the estimates into consideration when cal-
culating the control but do not plan for any probing
signals to reduce the future estimation of uncertainty.
The last but most efficient method is the dual control
method (Fel’dbaum, 1960; Fel’dbaum, 1961; Fabri
and Kadirkamanathan, 1998; Filatov and Unbehauen,
2000; Maitelli and Yoneyama, 1994) which takes un-
certainty of the estimates into consideration when es-
timating the control and at the same time plan to re-
duce future estimation of uncertainty.
The Riccati solution in this paper is for the more
general systems of equation (4), where the parameters
of the system equation are unknown and where the
noise term is state and control dependent. The param-
eters of the model are to be estimated on–line based
on some observations. Not only the model parame-
ters are to be estimated on–line, but also the state de-
pendent noise which characterizes uncertainty of the
parameters estimate and allows estimating the condi-
tional distribution of the system output or state. The
conditional distribution of the system output will be
estimated by the method used in (Herzallah, 2007).
The optimal control is again linear in x, but is now
rather critically dependent on the parameters of the
estimated uncertainty of the error
˜
η(k + ). This in
turn, yields a cautious type controller which takes into
consideration model uncertainty when calculating the
optimal control law. A numerical example is provided
and the result is compared to the certainty equivalent
controller.
The Riccati solution will be introduced soon, but
first we give a brief discussion about estimating model
uncertainty which we need for the derivation of the
Riccati solution of the cautious controller.
2 BASIC ELEMENTS
As a first step to the optimization problem, the condi-
tional distribution of the system output or state needs
to be estimated. According to theorem 4.2.1 in (Ger-
sho and Gray, 1992), the minimum mean square er-
ror (MMSE) estimate of a random vector Z given an-
other random vector X is simply the conditional ex-
pectation of Z given X ,
^
Z = E(Z | X ). For the linear
systems discussed in this paper, a generalized linear
model is used to model the expected value of the sys-
tem output,
ˆx(k + ) = Gx(k) + Hu(k) (5)
The parameters of the generalized linear model are
then adjusted using an appropriate gradient based
method to optimize a performance function based on
the error between the plant and the linear model out-
put. The stochastic model of the system of equa-
tion (4) is then shown (Herzallah, 2007) to have the
following form:
x(k+ ) = ^x(k+ ) + η(k+ ), (6)
where η(k+ ) represents an input dependent random
noise.
Another generalized linear model which has the
same structure and same inputs as that of the model
output is then used to predict the covariance matrix, P
of the error function η(k+ ),
P = Ax(k) + Bu(k). (7)
where A and B are partitioned matrices and are up-
dated such that the error between the actual covari-
ance matrix and the estimated one is minimized.
Detailed discussion about estimating the condi-
tional distribution of the system output can be found
in (Herzallah, 2007; Herzallah and Lowe, 2007).
3 RICCATI SOLUTION AND
MAIN RESULT
In this section we derive the Riccati solution of the in-
finite horizon linear quadratic control problem char-
acterized by functional uncertainty. We show here
that the optimal control law is a state feedback law
which depends on the parameters of the estimated un-
certainty, and that the optimal performance index is
quadratic in the state x(k) which also dependent on
the estimated uncertainty. The derivation is based
on the principal of optimality and is for finite hori-
zon control problem which is known to be the steady
state solution for an infinite horizon control problem.
Hence, by the principal of optimality the objective is
to find the optimal control sequence which minimizes
Bellman’s equation (Bellman, 1961; Bellman, 1962)
J[(x(k)] = U(x(k),u(k)) + γ < J[x(k+ )] >, (8)
where < . > is the expected value, J[x(k)] is the cost
to go from time k to the final time, U(x(k), u[x(k)])
is the utility which is the cost from going from time
k to time k + , and < J[x(k + )] > is assumed to
be the average minimum cost from going from time
k+ to the final time. The term γ is a discount factor
( ≤ γ ≤ ) which allows the designer to weight the
relative importance of present versus future utilities.
Using the general expressions of Equa-
tions (2), (6) and (5) in Bellman’s equation and
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