To address the issue of overfitting, we optimized
the isotopologue data for the 34-hour, 48-hour, and
72-hour time points simultaneously and calculated
an AIC for the combined optimization. The expert-
derived model had the best AIC of -428.98. The next
best model 6_G1R1A1U3_a1 was significantly
worse with an AIC of -355.87, indicating that
overall, the expert-derived model provides the best
description of the data.
4 CONCLUSIONS
We have demonstrated a novel metabolic modelling
methodology applied to FT-ICR-MS isotopologue
intensity data for UDP-GlcNAc and UDP-GalNAc.
Our implementation, GAIMS, interprets a set of
isotopologues as the flow of functional moieties
through metabolic pathways. This is represented by
a set of optimizable parameters for a given moiety
model. Figure 2 demonstrates a solid convergence of
50 individual optimizations for an expert-derived
model based on what is currently known about
UDP-GlcNAc biosynthesis. However, the standard
deviations for parameter values should not be
interpreted as a close representation of parameter
error, especially with the indication of model
overfitting in results from Table 2.
In addition, we demonstrate a robust model
selection method, which uses a form of the Akaike
information criterion (Equation 9). Our use of the
average parameter values from a set of optimizations
allows the AIC to sense smoothness of the error
surface for the target function of a given moiety
model. This application of the AIC along with the
use of isotopologues from multiple time points
enables our model selection method to overcome
issues of model overfitting for a set of isotopologues
at individual time points. We envision the coupling
of this robust model selection method with newer
non-steady-state metabolic flux analytical methods
(Selivanov et al., 2006; Wahl et al., 2008) as a
logical next step.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This work was supported in part by National Science
Foundation EPSCoR grant # EPS-0447479, NIH
NCRR Grant 5P20RR018733, 1R01CA118434-
01A2 (TWMF), 1RO1 CA101199 (TWMF)
R21CA133688-01 (ANL) from the National Cancer
Institute, DOE Grant Number DE-EM0000197
(HNBM), the Cardinal Research Cluster, the
Kentucky Challenge for Excellence, and the Brown
Foundation.
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