
 
To address the issue of overfitting, we optimized 
the isotopologue data for the 34-hour, 48-hour, and 
72-hour time points simultaneously and calculated 
an AIC for the combined optimization. The expert-
derived model had the best AIC of -428.98. The next 
best model 6_G1R1A1U3_a1  was significantly 
worse with an AIC of -355.87, indicating that 
overall, the expert-derived model provides the best 
description of the data.  
4 CONCLUSIONS 
We have demonstrated a novel metabolic modelling 
methodology applied to FT-ICR-MS isotopologue 
intensity data for UDP-GlcNAc and UDP-GalNAc. 
Our implementation, GAIMS, interprets a set of 
isotopologues as the flow of functional moieties 
through metabolic pathways. This is represented by 
a set of optimizable parameters for a given moiety 
model. Figure 2 demonstrates a solid convergence of 
50 individual optimizations for an expert-derived 
model based on what is currently known about 
UDP-GlcNAc biosynthesis.  However, the standard 
deviations for parameter values should not be 
interpreted as a close representation of parameter 
error, especially with the indication of model 
overfitting in results from Table 2. 
In addition, we demonstrate a robust model 
selection method, which uses a form of the Akaike 
information criterion (Equation 9).  Our use of the 
average parameter values from a set of optimizations 
allows the AIC to sense smoothness of the error 
surface for the target function of a given moiety 
model. This application of the AIC along with the 
use of isotopologues from multiple time points 
enables our model selection method to overcome 
issues of model overfitting for a set of isotopologues 
at individual time points. We envision the coupling 
of this robust model selection method with newer 
non-steady-state metabolic flux analytical methods 
(Selivanov et al., 2006; Wahl et al., 2008) as a 
logical next step.   
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 
This work was supported in part by National Science 
Foundation EPSCoR grant # EPS-0447479, NIH 
NCRR Grant 5P20RR018733, 1R01CA118434-
01A2 (TWMF), 1RO1 CA101199 (TWMF) 
R21CA133688-01 (ANL) from the National Cancer 
Institute, DOE Grant Number DE-EM0000197 
(HNBM), the Cardinal Research Cluster, the 
Kentucky Challenge for Excellence, and the Brown 
Foundation. 
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