we fight against CLT, we fight against nature. The
situation in the "neologist" fuzzy community is not
better, because they try to redefine somehow the
probability theory within the fuzzy approach without
using "forbidden" statistical terms. In this paper, we
will show that the nature is working totally
independently from our "magic" abstractions.
According to the robustness of CLT, the distribution
function of the completion time of real-size projects
remains nearly normal, which is a manager friendly,
natural and usable result. An abstraction and its
"natural" operators are unable to modify the order of
nature. When we want to add a practical scheduling
method to the project managers we have to destroy
the borders between the probabilistic and
possibilistic approaches and have to define a
"unified" approach to decrease the gap between
scientific beliefs and reality. In this paper we present
a new unified (probabilistic/possibilistic) model and
a conception of a heuristic connected to the unified
model for RCPSP with uncertain activity durations.
In Section 2 we present a unified theoretical model.
In Section 3 we describe the conception of the
uncertainty management according to the theoretical
model. The essence and viability of our unified
model will be illustrated by a fuzzy example in
Section 4. Finally, Section 5 draws conclusions from
this study.
2 THEORETICAL MODEL
In this section we describe the theoretical model for
RCPSP with uncertain activity durations. The
approach produces “robust” schedules which are
immune against uncertainties in the activity
durations. The optimality criterion is defined as a
linear combination (weighted sum) of resource-
feasible makespans connected to the key terms of
the applied uncertainty formulation. Theoretically
the optimal robust schedule searching process is
formulated as a multi-objective mixed integer linear
programming problem (MOMILP) where the
number of objectives corresponds to the number of
key terms (parameters) of uncertainty formulation.
In this paper, we replaced the MOMILP with a
MILP by scalarization. The resulting MILP can be
solved directly in the case of small-scale projects
within reasonable time. The proposed model is
based on the so-called “forbidden set” concept. The
output of the model is the set of the optimal conflict
repairing relations. Obviously, the solution of the
problem depends on the choice of the weights for the
objective functions.
In order to model uncertain activity durations in
projects, we consider the following resource-
constrained project-scheduling problem: A single
project consists of
N real activities
{}
Ni 2 1 ,...,,∈ .
In this paper, without loss of generality, we
assume that each activity duration can be described
by three parameters:
}
221 iii
DDD ,, ,
{}
Ni 2 1 ,...,,∈ ,
where triplet
}
221 iii
DDD ,, may define a triangular
membership function in the possibilistic approach,
or a density function from beta distribution in the
probabilistic approach. We have to note, that in the
probabilistic approach the triplet is estimated from a
sample using standard statistical tools, assuming that
the future can be described from the past, but in the
possibilistic approach it is only an abstraction which
describe the future according to knowledge of the
project managers.
The fuzzy community, under the spell of the
challenging but manageable nature of the
membership function (it is non-smooth composite of
linear segments) tries to recreate everything from the
beginning. For example, "normalization" is a "coded
message" that the triangle is not a density function,
and the horizontal line corresponding to "α-cut" is a
theoretically questionable replacement of the two
vertical lines, which define the confidence interval
in the probabilistic approach. Changing the position
of α we change our risk-taking habit, but, at the
same time, we omit/add duration segments with
totally different left/right tail probability (Figure 1).
Our opinion about the uncertainty management
in project scheduling is very simple: we have to
replace the triangular membership function with the
equivalent triangular density function, have to let the
CLP to work. Formalisms which in the uncertainty
dimension, try to redefine statistical terms without
statistical terms, are meaningless and misleading.
The activities are interrelated by precedence
constraints: Precedence constraints force an activity
not to be started before all its predecessors are
finished. These are given by network-relations
ji → , where ji → means that activity j cannot
start before activity
i is completed. Furthermore,
activity
)
1 0
Nii is defined to be the unique
dummy source (sink). Let
NR be the set of the
network relations.
FUZZIFICATION OF THE RESOURCE-CONSTRAINED PROJECT SCHEDULING PROBLEM - A Fight against
Nature
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