idecal is the time lag between input and its effect,
which is specially interesting in our application.
We have measures about every five minutes and
we admit that the effect of insulin (considered in
our application)is fast and noticeable ten (idecal=2)
minutes later, up to half an hour(idecal = 6).
The determination of unknown parameters a
i
1
and
a
i
2
is done by the algorithm of recursive least square.
3 APPLICATION TO THE
INSULIN/GLYCAEMIA
BEHAVIOR OF DIABETICS
3.1 The Available Data
The correlated data ”‘insulin infusion deliv-
ery/glycaemia”’ has been provided by the team
of Pr. Pinget, CHU of Strasbourg. They concern the
same person and the same insulin.The insulin infu-
sion has been done by an intra-peritoneal route and
the glycaemia has been checked by a subcutaneous
sensor. Measures of glycaemia have been made every
five minutes during 7 days, which corresponds to
1700 measures.
A bolus is a dose of insulin infused manually, in ad-
dition to the basic dose, since postprandial glycemia
cannot be regulated satisfactorily. The insulin file
contains crude data about basic insulin doses as well
as boluses. So, a pretraitement of the insulin file has
been necessary to produce a file of insulin delivery
for the same person every five minutes.
3.2 Experiments and Validation of the
Model
The learning set is composed of the first mea-
sures(280 points) that corresponds to insulin infusion
and blood glucose concentration of a patient during a
day. We take 7 (r = 7)linear models, considering that
each model is valid about three and half hours. The
mean square error(MSE)is calculated on the totality
of the measures(1700 points).
We make experiments by changing the parameter
idecal of the model, time lag between an input and its
effect.
The test of our modeling method shows that we
can predict the glycaemia over a long period (7 days),
by considering glycaemia and insulin delivery 15-
minute (resp 30-minute) before with an error of about
6%(resp 16%), which is a good result compared with
current results. However, we see that results obtained
Table 1: First table.
r idecal MSE
7 2 0.04
7 3 0.06
l
7 6 0.16
7 24 1.02
are not so good in the last case, when we consider
slow effect insulin (with 2-hours delay). In this case,
our model has to be refined, by increasing its order.
4 DATUM PLANE COVERING
We propose a measure used to pre-validate a fuzzy
model. We suppose that there exists a learning set
Ω = {(x
j
, d
j
)}, where x
j
is an input vector and d
j
,
the corresponding output. We also assume that the
desired function f is defined in
V = [a
1
, b
1
] × [a
2
, b
2
] × ... × [a
p
, b
p
]
Usually, to validate a fuzzy inference system, the
mean square error (MSE) is calculated on a test set.
If the MSE exceeds a threshold, then training is done,
using a gradient method. This consists in modifying
C
j
at each presentation of examples from the error
(y(x
j
) − d
j
).
Unfortunately, in case of model invalidation, we can-
not determine never learned rules that cause the gap
between the model and the real system. Moreover, if
there is an insufficient covering of datum plane, train-
ing and finer splitting of input space are inefficient
and useless. With the criterion proposed below, we
estimate the datum plane coverage and we are able
to isolate inactivated rules. Then, partial remodeling
of the fuzzy inference system is possible. The study
is investigating the relationship between a quantita-
tive variable X , number of available data for each in-
put, and a qualitative variable Y , labels of membership
functions.
When designing a fuzzy system, we attribute
to each input I r modalities (or labels) noted
y
1
, ··· y
l
, ··· y
r
. We note X
I
the variable for the input I
of average ¯x
I
and variance σ
2
X
I
. We note Ω
I
the cor-
responding learning set . Each label y
l
of I defines
a subset Ω
I
l
of Ω
I
: we obtain a partition of Ω
I
in m
classes. We note n
I
l
= card(Ω
I
l
) and n
I
= card(Ω
I
).
We have n
I
= Σ
m
l=1
n
I
l
. Then, if we consider the re-
striction de X
I
to Ω
I
l
) (l = 1, ··· , m), we may define
ExperimentsandDesignofanInferenceFuzzySystem
421