Use of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Climate System Stability Analysis

Carlos Gay García, Iván Paz Ortiz

2012

Abstract

In the present work we use fuzzy cognitive maps for the qualitative analysis of the earth’s climate system dynamics. First of all, we identify the subsystems which determine, as a hole, the stability of the climatic system. Later we develop cognitive maps (knowledge networks) based on the documented relationships between the subsystems (nodes of the network). The relationships between the nodes can be precise (quantifiable) or fuzzy (not quantifiable). Once the map is built, we use the state vector and adjacent matrix technique to assess the response of the system (the system converges or diverges) to the changes in the input node values in order to identify the possibles feedback. Then the Min-Max criteria is used to evaluate the effect of the network over the nodes, according to the fuzzy weights assigned to the edges (causal relations between nodes). Finally, we discuss some possible changes in the network in order to show how the system dynamic can be modified and can lead the system into a desired equilibrium state.

References

  1. Foley, J. A. (2010). Boundaries for a healthy planet. Scientific American.
  2. Kosko, B. (1986). Fuzzy cognitive maps. Man-Machine Studies, 24:65-75.
  3. Mace, G., Masundire, H., Baillie, J., Ricketts, T., and Brooks, T. (2005). Ecosystems and human well-being: Current state and trends, chapter Chapter 4: Biodiversity. Island Press USA.
  4. on Climate Change, I. I. P. (2007). Cambio climático 2007: Informe de síntesis. contribución de los grupos de trabajo i, ii y iii al cuarto informe de evaluación del grupo intergubernamental de expertos sobre el cambio climático. IPCC, Suiza.
  5. Stylios, C. D., Georgopoulos, V. C., and Groumpos, P. P. (1997). The use of fuzzy cognitive maps in modeling systems. In 5th IEEE Mediterranean Conference on Control and Systems MED5 paper, volume 67, page 7.
Download


Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Gay García C. and Paz Ortiz I. (2012). Use of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Climate System Stability Analysis . In Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCEC, (SIMULTECH 2012) ISBN 978-989-8565-20-4, pages 511-517. DOI: 10.5220/0004164205110517


in Bibtex Style

@conference{msccec12,
author={Carlos Gay García and Iván Paz Ortiz},
title={Use of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Climate System Stability Analysis},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCEC, (SIMULTECH 2012)},
year={2012},
pages={511-517},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0004164205110517},
isbn={978-989-8565-20-4},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: MSCCEC, (SIMULTECH 2012)
TI - Use of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Climate System Stability Analysis
SN - 978-989-8565-20-4
AU - Gay García C.
AU - Paz Ortiz I.
PY - 2012
SP - 511
EP - 517
DO - 10.5220/0004164205110517