SESGAL Software for Managing Earthquake Risk in Galicia

Carla Iglesias

, Eduardo Giráldez

, Javier Taboada

Roberto Martínez-Alegría

and Isabel Margarida Antunes

Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Engineering, University of Vigo, Vigo, 36310, Spain

Spanish Civil Protection Service, Valladolid, 47009, Spain

Polytechnic Institute of Castelo Branco, Castelo Branco, 6000, Portugal

Keywords: Seismic Risk, Vulnerability, Simulation, Emergency, Earthquake.

Abstract: According to the laws in place in Spain, the autonomous Community of Galicia (NW Spain) has two zones

–Lugo and Ourense– at greater seismic risk. In order to control and minimize the damage to buildings and to

population, a Special Civil Protection Plan for Seismic Risk in Galicia (SISMIGAL) has been drawn up,

including a software tool specially designed for this purpose.

The Galician Seismic Scenario Simulator v1.0 (SESGAL) is based on a geographic information system

(GIS) and provided with a comprehensive database of the elements and resources that intervene in the

management of an emergency. In addition to the typical functions of GIS, SESGAL incorporates a seismic

scenario simulator –which enables the prediction of the effects of an earthquake– and a seismic emergency

manager –which provides a tool for addressing the needs of the population in case of a catastrophe.

The SESGAL software presented here provides a useful, rapid tool for an effective and efficient response to

the damage caused by an earthquake in the Galician territory, managing the means and resources available.

1 INTRODUCTION

A new Spanish Earthquake-Resistant Construction

Standard (NCSE-02) was approved by Royal Decree

997/2002, of 27 September, replacing the previous

standard in place since 1996. This new regulation

was drawn up in accordance with current earthquake

engineering and seismology knowledge, including

an updated seismic risk map that identified two

zones in Galicia – Lugo and Ourense – with

different seismic acceleration and so at greater risk.

The Basic Civil Protection Regulation, approved

by Royal Decree 407/1992, of 24 April, to

complement and develop Law 2/1985, of 21

January, governing civil protection, includes

earthquakes among the risks that could result in a

catastrophe and so require special planning.

The Galician Territorial Civil Protection Plan

(PLATERGA) – within the legal powers assigned to

this autonomous region – provides for the need to

develop a plan to address earthquake risk in the

region. The Special Civil Protection Plan for

Seismic Risk in Galicia (SISMIGAL) was thus

drawn up to ensure effective and coordinated use of

public and private resources and means to minimize

the consequences for people, property and the

environment of a possible earthquake. The main

novelty of this plan is that it includes a specially

designed software tool called SESGAL (Galician

Seismic Scenario Simulator) v1.0. SISMIGAL and

SESGAL, whose territorial scope is the entire

geographic area of Galicia, are activated for any

seismic movement affecting the region with

consequences for the population and property.

Most seismic plans consist of a set of documents

(memoranda, reports, schedules and plans); the

Galician seismic plan also includes the specially

developed computer application SESGAL. SESGAL

enables digital databases to be queried and seismic

events and their possible consequences to be

simulated; it also provides decision-making support

during earthquake emergency management.

The SESGAL software reflects all the features of

the SISMIGAL, as follows: it characterizes seismic

risk in Galicia, taking hazard and vulnerability

estimates as a starting point; it catalogues the means

and resources available for planned earthquake

actions; it describes the organizational and

functional structure for emergency interventions in

earthquakes; and it establishes precise emergency

Iglesias C., Giráldez E., Taboada J., Martínez-Alegría R. and Margarida Antunes I..

SESGAL Software for Managing Earthquake Risk in Galicia.

DOI: 10.5220/0004433200070014

In Proceedings of the 8th International Joint Conference on Software Technologies (ICSOFT-EA-2013), pages 7-14

ISBN: 978-989-8565-68-6

 2013 SCITEPRESS (Science and Technology Publications, Lda.)

intervention steps aimed at evaluating earthquake

consequences, providing assistance to the affected

population and minimizing the people-property

impact.

Earthquakes and their consequences have been

widely studied and modelled, existing a number of

tools and software developed in order to model this

kind of natural event such as Hazus (FEMA, 2003)

or CAPRA (CAPRA, 2012). Hazus is a GIS-based

model used for the estimation of potential losses due

to natural disasters in the USA, while CAPRA

assesses Central American communities by

estimating physical, economic and human risks

derived from an earthquake. NISEE (NISEE, 2011),

a public service project of the Pacific Earthquake

Engineering Research (PEER) Center Library, has

developed several tools in the field of earthquake

engineering which focus on the response of

buildings and infrastructures.

Other works can be found in the literature

covering the study of mitigation alternatives in order

to avoid or minimize losses in future earthquakes

(Gupta and Shah, 1998); (Dodo et al., 2007) and

facilitate the recovery of damaged environmental

structures (Du et al., 2012).

However, the vast majority of the existing

models don’t comprise the stage of response to the

emergency. The Karmania hazard model

(Hassanzadeh et al., 2013) allows the simulation of

an earthquake in the region of Iran, as well as the

estimation of the resources needed after the seism in

terms of emergency facilities, food and water. China

has a simulation system based on GIS and Artificial

Intelligence (Tang and Wen, 2009) which includes a

seismic emergency response module similar to the

Seismic emergency manager developed in this work.

Nevertheless, the SESGAL Seismic emergency

manager addresses the Spanish and Galician Civil

Protection policies and structures, and allows the

establishment of several advanced command posts to

manage and coordinate the response in this territory.

Time is critical and effective emergency

activities are essential in order to minimize the death

rates among people trapped in building collapses

(Coburn et al., 1992). The main advantage of

SESGAL is that it ensures a practical and agile

response to emergency situations when rapid

decision making is key to minimizing seismic

damage.

The application provides information down to

the level of the parish, being this detailed,

exhaustive database one of its strenghts. SESGAL

has three main functions:

(1) Layer Viewer. The software is based on a

geographic information system (GIS) and so can

query a cartographic database (scale 1:50000) and a

number of other elements that intervene directly or

indirectly in the management of an emergency. For

municipalities at the highest seismic risk in Galicia

(As Nogais, Baralla, Becerreá, Láncara, Samos,

Sarria and Triacastela) more detailed maps (scale

1:5000) are provided.

(2) Seismic Scenario Simulator. The effects of

an earthquake can be simulated and investigated

according to the epicentre, depth and magnitude (or

intensity).

(3) Seismic Emergency Manager. The damage

to buildings and services and the number of people

that will need medical care can be assessed. Hospital

resources and medical care can also be allocated

according to evolution over time of the situation

regarding injuries. This allows the coordination of

the means and resources available after an

earthquake, optimizing the response to a disaster of

such nature.

1.1 Geological and Seismic Context

Galicia is located in the Hesperian or Iberian Massif,

one of several old Variscan massifs that stretch

across the European continent. Tectonic

readjustments of this massif are responsible for most

of the seismicity experienced in Galicia. Seismic

events offshore that could result in tsunamis are also

possible.

Table 1: Seismic events of magnitude 4 and higher

(Galicia 1995-1997).

Lat. Long. Depth Int. Mag. Location

29 November 1995

42.8167 -7.3033 9 km VI 4.6

Triacastela

(Lugo)

24 December 1995

42.8600 -7.3150 15 km VI 4.6

SW Baralla

(Lugo)

29 October 1996

42.8300 -7.2283 - V 4.1

SW Becerreá

(Lugo)

21 May 1997

42.8167 -7.2333 9 km V 4.1

N Triacastela

(Lugo)

42.7833 -7.2583 13 km VI 5.1

Triacastela

(Lugo)

Source: National Geographic Institute (Spain).

ICSOFT2013-8thInternationalJointConferenceonSoftwareTechnologies

Seismic events recorded in Galicia since the late

1970s, and especially the series of earthquakes in

Sarria-Becerreá (Lugo) in the 1990s, have led to a

change in categorization in the national seismic

hazard map, so that this is now the area of greatest

seismic activity in the northwestern Iberian

Peninsula (López-Fernández et al., 2004). Until

1995, seismic activity in this region was

unremarkable, but between 1995 and 1997 there

were more than 500 earthquakes, four of magnitude

4 and, on 21 May 1997, one of magnitude 5.1 (Table

1).

2 METHODOLOGY

Our seismic risk assessment took into account not

just the territory of Galicia, but also nearby

terrestrial and marine areas.

Seismic risk is defined by the expected number

of people affected, the expected damage to property

and the expected disruption to economic activity due

to an earthquake. Seismic hazard is defined as the

probability, for a given location, of the occurrence of

an earthquake of a certain intensity, and its inverse,

the return period.

2.1 Database and Organization

The cartographic databases, comprising the

graphical representation of the maps, are stored in

files with the extension .shp and the associated data

are stored in files with the extension .dbf.

The software uses a georeferenced spatial

database associated with digital maps in vector

format (scale 1:50000 in general and 1:5000 for high

risk areas). The thematic maps are composed of

layers (with georeferenced information on polygonal

areas, lines and points) containing entities of

different categories, with each record in the database

representing an entity (Figure 1).

A satisfactory response to an emergency

depends, above all, on accurate knowledge of the

means and resources available. Taken as the

database was the Territorial Civil Protection Plan

(Xunta de Galicia, 2009), whose information was

georeferenced for inclusion in SESGAL.

Means refer to essentially mobile human and

material elements that make up the emergency

teams. Resources are all the essentially static natural

elements or materials that can be used in emergency

situations. These catalogued means and resources

are classified in four levels: municipal, provincial,

regional and state.

SISMIGAL is structured and organized

according to general basic civil protection models

developed in the national Basic Civil Protection

Master Plan for Seismic Risk and the Galician

Territorial Civil Protection Plan (PLATERGA). The

head of emergency management is also the director

of the master plan and is assisted by an advisory

committee. Orders are implemented by teams of

experts coordinated at the site of the emergency by

the manager of an advanced command post.

Figure 1: SESGAL information system structure.

SESGALSoftwareforManagingEarthquakeRiskinGalicia

These teams are the operational spearhead of the

overall plan. Each team has its own operational

plans, depending on its mission.

Thus, the direct intervention team acts to

minimize and control the effects of the earthquake,

the seismic team evaluates and monitors earthquake

damage, the technical support and essential services

team deals with damage to key services, the health

and social action team provides care to victims and

the logistics and security team ensures public safety

and public order.

2.2 Seismic Scenarios

First characterized are different possible seismic

scenarios for Galicia, considering different

magnitudes and intensities and propagation models,

and estimating the effects on people and property.

The identification of areas of Galicia where seismic

emergencies might occur is based on: (1) assessment

of seismic hazard, estimated from the intensity of the

movement that can reasonably be expected in any

given parish; and (2) assessment of the vulnerability

of buildings so as to establish an estimate of the

damage that could be generated by an earthquake.

Taking the basic acceleration value for each

municipality and the expression that relates this to

intensity (Eq. 1), we obtain a map of seismic

intensities by municipality:

log

a = 0.30103*I – 0.2321 (1)

where a is expressed in Gals (10

-2

m/s

2.3 Seismic Vulnerability

The vulnerability of people (injuries and fatalities)

and buildings (homes, essential services and

lifelines) are determined and potential damage from

a hypothetical earthquake is assessed.

2.3.1 Seismic Vulnerability of Buildings

The vulnerability of buildings depends on many

factors, among which are the characteristics of the

soil, the kind of foundation, the building geometry

and age, to name just the main factors (Maldonado

et al., 2007); (Maldonado and Chio, 2009).

The European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98)

(Grunthal, 1998) assigns a vulnerability class to each

structure depending on its construction

characteristics and the classification of damage to

masonry and reinforced concrete buildings. Six

vulnerability classes (A to F) are defined, with A as

the most vulnerable and F as the least vulnerable.

Following the guidelines of the EMS-98,

Galician houses were assigned to vulnerability

classes based on characteristics provided in the

National Institute of Statistics’ Population and

Housing Census for 2001. Two different approaches

were followed, resulting in two classifications:

(1) Classification by age, as per the SES2002

simulator (Barranco and Izquierdo, 2002).

(2) Classification by age and height, following the

vulnerability assessment of essential buildings

made for Catalonia (Gonzalez et al., 2001).

Furthermore, two matrices are used to estimate

the damage of buildings according to the seismic

intensity of the area assigned by the European

Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98):

(1) Type 1 matrix: considers the average percentage

of the intervals defined by EMS-98 (8% = “very

few”, 35% = “many” and 80% = “most”).

(2) Minimum vulnerability matrix: considers the

lowest percentage of each EMS-98 interval (1%

=“very few”, 15%=“many” and 55%=“most”).

2.3.2 Seismic Vulnerability

of the Population

To estimate the number of fatalities and injuries and

also the number of people left homeless by the

earthquake, a series of matrices are used that take

building vulnerability as the starting information.

We use three methods to estimate the number of

people potentially affected by an earthquake, one

based on an estimate of the number of collapsed

houses (Coburn et al., 1992), and an Applied

Technology Council (ATC) method called ATC-13

(1985), based on the degree of damage to the

buildings. The first method is applied in two ways:

with a temporary factor which considers the

influence of the time of the day and seasonal

occupancy (i.e. weekdays vs. weekend), and without

this temporary factor.

Applying Coburn et al. (1992) formulae to

Galicia, the number of deaths is calculated by:

K = 0.3*G5*Om (2)

where G5 is the number of collapsed buildings and

Om is number of people per building (1.91 in rural

areas with less than 10,000 inhabitants, and 2.31 in

urban areas).

The number of injured people is assumed as six

times the number of killed people. Finally, the

number of people left homeless is estimated as

follows:

H = CI*Om (3)

ICSOFT2013-8thInternationalJointConferenceonSoftwareTechnologies

where CI is the number of uninhabitable houses

(all those buildings which suffered damages of G5

or G4 level, plus half of the buildings with G3 level

damage).

On the other hand, ATC-13 method estimates the

number of people slightly injured, seriously injured

and killed depending on the damage suffered by the

buildings, from G1 to G5.

A census of the population and buildings is also

made using demographic data from the 2001 census

for all the municipalities in Galicia.

2.3.3 Seismic Vulnerability of Key Buildings

A key building is any building housing a service

whose malfunction may preclude or hinder measures

to deal with a seismic crisis and return operations to

normal.

The vulnerability of essential buildings is

calculated based on the year of construction and

height (as with residential buildings). In cases where

this information is not available, the ATC-13 (1985)

methodology is used.

2.3.4 Seismic Vulnerability of Lifelines

Damage to the road and rail networks, to natural gas

supplies and the electricity grid, etc is studied and

assessed using the ATC-13 (1985) and ATC-25

(1991) methodologies. The damage is classified in

the same way as for key buildings.

2.4 Damage Estimation

Taking into account the vulnerabilities above

mentioned, it is also estimated the damage to

buildings and the population through the theorem of

total probability (Benjamin and Cornell, 1970). Each

type of building is a combination of different

vulnerabilities, so the probability of suffering a

damage of d degree is calculated as follows:

P [GD = d] = Σ P [GD = d|V,I]*P[V]*P[I] (4)

where P[GD= d|T,I] is the probability of a damage

of d degree given an intensity I and a vulnerability

V; P[V] is the probability of the building having a

vulnerability V; P[I] is the probability of the

occurrence of an earthquake of intensity I.

Considering the intensity in a deterministic

approach, being P[I]=1, the cumulative probability

of suffering a damage D is calculated as follows:

P [GD=D≥d

] = 1-Σ P[GD = d

with i = 0,…, j-1; j=1,...,5

(5)

Damage to buildings is classified in five classes

(G1=slight, G2=moderate, G3=severe,

G4=destruction, G5=collapse), while victims are

classified as homeless, injured or dead.

2.5 Earthquake Simulation Process

Once the coordinates for a simulated earthquake are

entered in the program, the isoseismal radii and the

intersections are calculated for municipalities,

parishes or both simultaneously. It is assumed that

the logarithm of the parameter of movement in a

certain location follows a normal distribution.

Hence, the attenuation of the intensity is calculated

in the epicentre surroundings down to intensity 3 at

the edge.

3 THE SESGAL APPLICATION

3.1 System Requirements

The SESGAL application was programmed using

Visual Basic to operate in Windows XP operating

system. The mid-level hardware requirements are 1

GB of free hard-disk space and 512 MB of RAM.

3.2 Settings

Through the settings/properties menu, the user can

select the program environment settings, results

presentation settings and the calculation parameters.

Within this last option the user can select the

vulnerability matrices to be used in the simulation,

both for the population and buildings.

3.3 SESGAL Functions

As already indicated, the functions offered by the

SESGAL application are the layer viewer, the

seismic scenario simulator and the seismic

emergency manager. The latter two are the elements

that distinguish this application.

3.3.1 Layer Viewer

This module is responsible for the tasks typical of a

GIS. It allows access to all the maps and associated

databases, while allowing the user to perform the

more general tasks of a vector GIS. Access is via the

file/layer viewer menu.

Displayed directly on the screen are data on

Galicia down to the parish level, including

information on the vulnerability of buildings

calculated by the two methods described above. It is

SESGALSoftwareforManagingEarthquakeRiskinGalicia

thus possible to know, for any given zone, the

number of buildings with a specific level of

vulnerability (A to F). Furthermore, the seismic

intensities calculated from Eq. (1) and the geology

of the region (soft, medium or hard bedrock) can be

consulted. Figure 2 shows the resultant map, which

uses increasingly dark colours to indicate areas of

greater risk.

Figure 2: Map of seismic intensities by parish.

The layers consist of the following information

groups: basic maps, resources and means, essential

services and lifelines and detailed maps (including

street maps of towns belonging to the seven

municipalities most vulnerable to seismic damage).

3.3.2 Seismic Scenario Simulator

Using the file/simulate earthquake menu and

entering earthquake parameters in the program, the

user can obtain estimates of expected seismic

intensities and the impact on people and buildings.

Earthquakes and their effects can be simulated by

introducing the location of the epicentre (by its

coordinates or clicking on the map directly), the

depth and the magnitude (or intensity) of the

earthquake at the epicentre (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Earthquake simulation window.

It is also possible to simulate a past earthquake

whose parameters are stored in the program

database.

The results screen (Figure 4) shows the epicentre

and the intensity of the earthquake at the epicentre,

the intensity in nearby municipalities, the list of

municipalities affected and the hospitals and fire

stations available.

Figure 4: Results of an earthquake simulation.

This module allows results for a total of five

earthquakes to be simulated and viewed

independently and simultaneously.

3.3.3 Seismic Emergency Manager

The results of the seismic simulation(s) can be used

to manage the means and resources that participate

directly in the emergency. From the results window

for the earthquake, the file/management main menu

option launches the emergency management

module.

The management window (Figure 5) contains the

following tabs: damage assessment, advanced

command posts, hospitals and rescue teams. The

damage assessment tab shows damage to buildings,

damage to the population classified by

municipalities and parishes and intensity information

for the earthquake in that area.

Using the displayed forms, real-time information

for locating and managing an emergency from the

advanced command post can be entered in the

database.

The first step in emergency coordination is

location of the advanced command post by entering

UTM coordinates or by directly indicating its

position on the map. More than one advanced

command post can be established to manage

earthquake victims in the corresponding area. Each

advanced command post is identified by a unique

code automatically generates once a location is

chosen.

ICSOFT2013-8thInternationalJointConferenceonSoftwareTechnologies

Figure 5: Management window showing the damage

assessment tab.

The triage tool manages medical care for earthquake

victims and assesses damage to hospitals. The first

triage indicates the number of injuries and fatalities.

A damaged hospital triage classifies hospitals

according to their state after the earthquake. If

hospitals in the affected area are damaged, the initial

triage would also include the patients in this

hospital.

In a second triage, victims are classified as dead

or injured, for three injury severity levels (minor,

serious and very serious). This second triage enables

victims to be assigned to hospitals according to the

care and equipment required and proximity to the

advanced command post.

Depending on needs, enquiries can be made to

hospitals about bed numbers, operating theatres or

any other useful information. Hospitals can be

searched for by two criteria: isochrones or roads.

The former locates hospitals at a distance of 20

minutes, 1 hour or 3 hours from the advanced

command post, whereas the latter evaluates the

shortest route in terms of time required to cover the

distance from the advanced command post.

Once all the search criteria have been

established, the program queries the thematic

database and calls up a list of hospitals that match

the criteria, starting with the nearest in time. Once

suitable hospitals have been located, victims are

assigned to them.

Once the earthquake victims are quantified and

classified and hospitals have been selected for them,

a medical transport evacuation plan (Figure 6) is

organized. The screen displays all the available

medical transport, classified as standard transport

vehicles, basic ambulances, emergency ambulances

and air ambulances (helicopters). A query calls up a

form providing availability information regarding

vehicles in the category consulted.

The hospitals tab presents administrative and

technical data information for each hospital and also

displays a map of the municipalities and parishes in

the hospital’s catchment area. The user can also

make an assessment of the emergency response

capacity of a hospital using two analytical

components in SESGAL: the number of referrals

generated by the hospital and the hospital response

factor. The number of referrals quantifies the

number of patients to be evacuated from a hospital

in the event of earthquake damage, whereas the

hospital response factor evaluates the emergency

care provided by the hospital.

Figure 6: Evacuating earthquake victims to hospitals.

Finally, the rescue team tab refers to the means and

resources available for major rescue operations,

primarily, fire-fighters and civil protection

volunteers. The search and selection procedure for

these teams is similar to that used for the hospitals.

4 VALIDATION

In order to validate the performance of the seismic

scenario simulator, the historical earthquakes from

Table 1 have been simulated.

The results show no casualties or injured people,

with a large number of buildings with slight and

moderate damage (1769 and 510, respectively), 164

buildings severely damaged and 34 destructed (not

collapsed). According to the information gathered in

that date, the results of the simulation basically agree

with the real consequences of the selected

earthquake. However, no seriously damaged

buildings were reported at that time, what makes the

seismic scenario simulator a conservative tool.

Regarding the seismic emergency manager, it

has not been used yet in real situations, but it will

prove to be an effective application as long as the

databases are updated.

SESGALSoftwareforManagingEarthquakeRiskinGalicia

5 CONCLUSIONS

The main objective of the seismic risk plan for

Galicia (SISMIGAL) is to limit the impact of

possible earthquakes on people, property and the

environment.

The SESGAL software for simulating an

earthquake scenario rapidly and efficient assesses

damage and facilitates the management of available

means and resources. Being GIS-based, it

incorporates two specially designed modules for

seismic risk management: a seismic scenario

simulator and a seismic emergency manager. These

quickly estimate the damage caused by an

earthquake to the population and buildings and

coordinate the means and resources available to

provide assistance to victims and minimize the

impact of the earthquake.

The application was validated through the

simulation of historical earthquakes whose

consequences have been reported, obtaining

coherent results from the seismic scenario simulator.

The effectiveness of SISMIGAL depends largely

on the ability to maintain an organization capable of

rapidly providing a coordinated response to the

chaos resulting from a seismic event.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This work was funded by the General Directorate of

Civil Protection of the Xunta de Galicia. C. Iglesias

is acknowledged to Spanish Ministry of Education

for the FPU 12/02283 grant.

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