![](bg7.png)
Figure 12: Spatial distribution of T= 4.02 °C according
to GFDL 2.0 (upper panel) and HADGEM1 (lower panel)
for 5CO2 emission trajectory). Maps obtained using
Magicc/Scengen V. 5.3.
4 CONCLUSIONS
Based on the fuzzy model presented by Gay et al.
(2013) and the simple climate model contained in
Magicc/Scengen we show how the global mean
temperature increase is distributed on the globe for
the significant thresholds of 1, 2, 3 and 4 °C. The
linear emission pathways include all the possibilities
mentioned in successive reports of IPCC.
In this work we considered the possibility of
analysing the impacts of temperature increase from
the perspective of the year in which some
temperature is reached. Two sources of uncertainty
are taken into account, the emissions of GHG and
the climate sensitivity.
The larger concentration and sensitivity the
sooner the successive thresholds of temperature will
be reached. If the sensitivity is 6 there is no way of
staying at two degrees unless the concentrations of
CO2 had followed the -2CO2 trajectory: negative
emissions that means very strong subtraction of CO2
from the atmosphere. We think that it is easier to
consider a degree by degree strategy than one based
on dates. For a one degree global increase the
uncertainty extends to more than two degrees, then
for a 1 °C global increase, maps for one and two
degrees are to be considered. For 4 °C and
sensitivity 3, uncertainty can extend to 6.41 °C
We construct maps for 2 GCM´s (as an example)
with the necessary concentration to reach 1, 2, 3 and
4 °C limits to 2100. The maps show the spatial
distribution of the temperature increase over the
globe.
Emissions and sensitivity introduce uncertainties
in the temperature that in turn must be reflected in
the scaled temperature displayed in a map. Other
source of uncertainty considered is the GCM. As
expected, the map for any limit of temperature
depends on the GCM but not on the emission
trajectory. The maps constructed for different
GCM´s illustrate all possibilities for a region of the
globe.
Future work can be done to show how the
GCM´s introduce uncertainty in the estimates of
temperature increase in a regional scale.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This work was supported by the Programa de
Investigación en Cambio Climático (PINCC,
www.pincc.unam.mx) of the Universidad Nacional
Autónoma de México.
REFERENCES
Gay, C., Sánchez, O., Martínez-López, B., Nébot, Á.,
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