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6 CONCLUSIONS
In this paper, the price reduction of solar cells in
Japan is modeled, excluding mass production
effects, based on the technology knowledge stock
approach. By using the technological progress model
of solar cells and the relationship between price ratio
and market share, possible influence of resource
allocation in the PV R&D of Japan is analyzed.
Conclusions of this study are as follows.
(1) The estimated influence of resource allocation in
the PV R&D of Japan on module prices of solar
cells and market share in world solar cell production
is not small and should not be ignored.
(2) Japan could achieve a module price of solar cells
of around 200 JPY/W, which is 30% cheaper than
presently available. The price is comparable to solar
cell prices in China and Taiwan,
and (3) though Japan could not keep its top share, it
could have maintained a large share in world solar
cell production for several more years by reducing
solar cell prices, if the assumed R&D resources had
been allocated to crystalline silicon solar cells,
which are very affordable.
The analysis depends on assumptions such as
continuity and additivity in R&D and the relation
between price and market share, which needs more
discussion. Sensitivity analysis for assumed data and
parameters, such as R&D expenditures after 2000
and mass production effects of learning-by-doing,
are necessary.
For further study, we could look at combining the
technological progress model of solar cells, the
world solar cell market model, both shown in this
study, and the dissemination model for residential
PV systems model (Endo, 2014). The study of cost-
effective resource allocation will be simulated for
PV technology development in Japan, in terms of
not only R&D expenditure, but also subsidies by the
government.
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