variable), a fuzzy membership value (denoting the
level of confidence in the chosen class), and a side
value (telling whether the quantitative value lies to
the left, to the right or at the centre of the
membership function peak). By default in FIR the
data is recoded into an odd number of classes using
the Equal Frequency Partition technique to
determine the landmarks between neighbouring
classes and the fuzzy membership function is a bell-
shaped Gaussian curve that assumes a maximum
value of 1.0 at the centre and a value of 0.5 at each
of the landmarks.
At this point, the continuous trajectory behaviour
recorded from the system has been converted to
episodical behaviour (a qualitative data stream) by
means of the recoding function. In the process of
qualitative modelling, it is desired to discover causal
relations among the variables that make the resulting
state transition matrices as deterministic as possible.
This is accomplished by means of the optimal model
function which is responsible for finding causal,
spatial and temporal relations between variables that
offer the best likelihood for being able to predict the
future system behaviour from its own past.
A FIR model is composed by a set of relevant
variables (feature selection) and a set of input/output
relations called pattern rule base (set of fuzzy rules
that contain the triples mentioned earlier). The
optimality of the selected relevant variables is
evaluated with respect to the maximization of its
forecasting power that is quantified by means of a
quality measure, based mainly on Shannon entropy.
A search in the space of potential sets of relevant
variables must be performed to find the optimal
models for different complexities. The complexity of
a model is defined as the number of relevant
variables selected by this model. Exhaustive and
genetic algorithms are implemented to perform this
search.
Once the most relevant variables are identified,
they are used to derive the set of input/output
relations (or pattern rules) from the training data set.
The FIR qualitative simulation engine is based on
the k-nearest neighbour rule. The forecast of the
output variable is obtained as a weighted average of
the potential conclusions that result from firing the k
rules, whose antecedents best match the actual state.
The defuzzification module, also called fuzzy
regeneration, performs the reverse operation of the
fuzzification module, converting qualitative triples
back to real-valued data. The side value makes it
possible to perform the defuzzification of qualitative
into quantitative values unambiguously and without
information loss.
Due to space limitations it is not possible to go
deeply into FIR methodology. The interested reader
is referred to (Escobet et al., 2008; Nebot and
Mugica, 2012).
3 HIERARCHICAL FUZZY
INDUCTIVE REASONING
METHODOLOGY
One of the basic elements of learning in human
beings is the ability to classify the world at different
granularities and abstraction levels. Classification is
an innate human capability which is related to our
memory as an essential element of human
intelligence. Memory is organized in a way that
interprets present situation based on the information
gained from past situations. These situations and
events are categorized and organized as instances of
classes in our memory. For us even the simplest
tasks require the ability to classify based on our
perception. As mentioned by Estes (1994),
classification is indeed basic to all our intellectual
abilities. Automatic classification is the concept of
interest of this paper because the original FIR offers
scope for improvement to be applied as a classifier
although it is originally designed for regression.
Considering the natural application of multi level
learning by humans, we propose a new method that
modifies original FIR in such a way that
classification is performed at different levels. This
new method results in a Hierarchical Fuzzy
Inductive Reasoning Classifier.
Such type of classifier is interesting for several
reasons. Firstly, in terms of classification accuracy
and, secondly, since the hierarchical FIR can provide
the ability to classify exceptional cases separated
from general classification. These exceptional cases
can be accompanied with arguments of domain
experts as a first step towards an Argument Based
Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning methodology.
FIR defines a single prediction model for each
output. Therefore, if experts want to argument on the
final result of FIR, then their argument would impact
the whole output search space which is not what we
are looking for. A strategy that divides the search
space and learns a FIR model in each of the
subspaces will solve this problem because then the
arguments will impact a specific subspace.
HFIR is designed to be applied in problems with
high degree of uncertainty where few training
examples are available or when there is insufficiency
of information in those examples due to many
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