A Stochastic Version of the Ramsey’s Growth Model
Gabriel Zacar
´
ıas-Espinoza
1
, Hugo Cruz-Su
´
arez
2
and Enrique Lemus-Rodr
´
ıguez
3
1
Departamento de Matem
´
aticas, Universidad Aut
´
onoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Ave. San Rafael Atlixco 186,
Col. Vicentina,09340, M
´
exico D.F., M
´
exico
2
Facultad de Ciencias F
´
ısico Matem
´
aticas, Benem
´
erita Universidad Aut
´
onoma de Puebla, Ave. San Claudio y R
´
ıo Verde,
Col. San Manuel, Ciudad Universitaria, Puebla, Pue., 72570, M
´
exico
3
Escuela de Actuar
´
ıa, Universidad An
´
ahuac M
´
exico-Norte, Ave. Universidad An
´
ahuac 46,
Col. Lomas An
´
ahuac, 52786, Edo. de M
´
exico, M
´
exico
Keywords:
Ramsey’s Growth Model, Markov Decision Processes, Dynamic Programming, Euler Equation, Stability.
Abstract:
In this paper we study a version of Ramsey’s discrete time Growth Model where the evolution of Labor through
time is stochastic. Taking advantage of recent theoretical results in the field of Markov Decision Processes, a
first set of conditions on the model are established that guarantee a long-term stable behavior of the underlying
Markov chain.
1 INTRODUCTION
Ramsey’s Growth Model has a long and interesting
history. In order to give a context to the material of
the present paper, we briefly outline it.
The original model presented by Ramsey in (Ram-
sey, 1928) (formulated in communication with the
famous economist Keynes) analyzes optimal global
saving in a deterministic continuous time setting, and
it is no surprise that it is solved using Calculus of
Variations. Since then, several variants have appeared
in the Advanced Macroeconomics literature, but, as
Prof. Ekeland points out (one of the leading experts in
Mathematical Economics): “To the best of my knowl-
edge and understanding, none of the solutions pro-
posed for solving the Ramsey problem is correct with
one exception, of course, Ramsey himself, whose own
statement was different than the one which is now in
current use (Ekeland, 2010)”. On the contrary, the
discrete time setting allows the straightforward use of
Dynamic Programming techniques, and therefore, al-
lows both researchers and practitioners to focus on the
analysis of the model itself and its properties. The
deterministic case is very clearly stated and analyzed
in (Brida et al., 2015), (Le Van and Dana, 2003) and
(Sladk
´
y, 2012).
Ramsey’s seminal work on economic growth has
been extended in many ways, but, to the best of our
knowledge, the study of a random discrete time ver-
sion is still in its initial phase. Such study will allow
a fruitful interaction between economists and mathe-
matician that will lead to better simulations and con-
sequently, to a better understanding of the effects of
the random deviations in the growth of an economy
and its impact on the population. And, in this paper
a first random model is posed, where the population
grows in a stochastic manner.
In this paper a discrete-time stochastic Ram-
sey growth process is modeling as a discounted
Markov Decision Process (MDP) (Hern
´
andez-Lerma
and Lasserre, 1996) and (Ja
´
skiewicz and Nowak,
2011). The performance criterion of interest is the to-
tal discounted reward. The optimal control problem is
to determine a policy that optimizes the performance
criterion. The solution of the optimization problem is
analyzed through of the Euler Equation (EE) (Cruz-
Su
´
arez and Montes-de Oca, 2008) and (Cruz-Su
´
arez
et al., 2012). Later, the EE is applied to study the er-
godic behavior of the stochastic Ramsey growth pro-
cess.
2 THE MODEL
Consider an economy in which at each discrete time
t, t = 0,1,..., there are L
t
consumers (population or
labor), with consumption c
t
per individual, whose
growth is governed by the following difference equa-
tion:
L
t+1
= L
t
η
t
, (1)
Zacarías-Espinoza, G., Cruz-Suárez, H. and Lemus-Rodríguez, E.
A Stochastic Version of the Ramsey’s Growth Model.
DOI: 10.5220/0005752503230329
In Proceedings of 5th the International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems (ICORES 2016), pages 323-329
ISBN: 978-989-758-171-7
Copyright
c
2016 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. All r ights reserved
323