about the usage of metrics for project risk
management. Barry Boehm (Boehm, 1989) is
considered a pioneer in the application of risk
management in software engineering. He proposed a
software risk management framework focused on risk
analysis. The activity of risk analysis in his work is
defined as Risk Exposure calculation, which is
defined as the multiplication between Probability of
Risk versus Loss or Impact of Risk. This analysis is
only used for risk prioritization.
The work (Lopes, 2005) proposes a way of to
measure the risk level of a project through a metrics
called Risk Point. According to the author, the
objective of Risk point metrics is to define how risky
is a software project based on number of identified
risks and project complexity factors. We use this
metrics as one of the indicators for this dissertation.
However, the author did not evaluate Risk Point in
practice.
Another related work defines a quantitative
approach where risk concepts of economics,
specifically credit risk, are used to propose a method
of risk assessment in software projects (Costa, 2005).
In this work, the author proposes a way to calculate
how much capital a software development
organization can gain or lose due to the risks of a
selected set of projects. The adopted method allows
the selection of projects’ sets that seeks to maximize
the cost-benefit for an organization. The risk
assessment method uses project characterization
(size, duration cost and return) and a questionnaire to
identify risks. However, this method was not
evaluated in practice.
The use of the Goal-Question Metric paradigm to
define software process metrics with the goal of
monitoring risk factors is discussed on (Fontoura and
Price, 2004). On the other hand, the proposal was not
put in practice.
Some works used metrics for technical risks using
Risk-Based Testing concept (RBT) (Amland, 2000)
(Souza et al, 2009). The objective of the metrics is to
indicate information regarding test cases control
through risk analysis and monitoring of system
requirements. However, these metrics are not
proposed as a tool for management of projects,
providing only product risk view based on system
requirements, architecture and coding analysis.
Another related work discusses the need of the
usage of metrics for risk management, and shows
examples of how they can be used (Bechtold, 1997).
For example, a risk factor related to team
qualification – experience and knowledge level on
certain technology. Hence, it is a data that could be
quantified and followed through project life cycle. On
the other hand, this paper does not present any
practical application or assessment.
This paper approaches the evolution of the
proposal presented by (Lopes, 2005) because it shows
a proposal of a metrics – Risk point, whose goal is to
measure risks in the context of multiple project
software management as support tool for project
managers. Therefore, the rest of this paper presents
Risk Point metrics in details as well as proposes
improvements and previous assessment in a real
environment.
3 RISK POINT METRICS
The Risk Point (RP) metric aims to represent the
overall risk exposure level of a project (Lopes, 2005).
Basically, the metric is defined in terms of the amount
of identified risks, where these risks are defined in
terms of its probability and estimated impact, as the
concept of Risk Exposure (RE) (Selby, 2007).
RP allows quantifying the project in terms of its
identified risks. It is necessary to estimate the Risk
Exposure value, i.e. Probability versus Impact, for
each identified risk, so, for a specific data collection
about the current risks of a project, it is possible to
determine a value of Risk Point (RP), as follows:
= ×
Where, PCF means the Project Characteristics
Factor and URPW means Unadjusted Risk Point
Weight. PCF is a value for giving the project a weight
and adjust the metric final value based on technical
and environmental factors (Coelho, 2003). This value
is defined through the answers of a questionnaire,
which was developed from an empirical study with
software project managers and management students,
as mentioned. Then, PCF is defined as:
= 1.05 + (0.015×)
= (
×ℎ
)
CF means Characteristic Factor, it is
determined by answering the 8 questions of a
questionnaire with scores between 0 and 4, and then
this answer is multiplied by the defined weighted
value for each question. Finally, these 8 products are
summed, resulting in the CF value (Coelho, 2003).
URPW is the Unadjusted Risk Point Weight,
composed by the identified risks during a data
collection, in terms of their Risk Exposure. In this
study, the estimation adopted was values in {0.1, 0.2,
… , 0.9}.