The Influence of Climate Change on the Fresh Water Plume in the

Pearl River Estuary

Yuxiang Chen

1,*

,Min Zhang

,Huazhi Zou

,Pimao Chen

and Zhenzhao Tang

South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences. Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510300,

China;

South China Sea Marine Prediction Center, State Oceanic Administration, Guangzhou, China;

Key Laboratory of the Pearl River Estuarine Dynamics and Associated Process Regulation, Ministry of Water Resources,

Guangzhou, China.

Email: 543449929@qq.com.

Keywords

: Sea level rise, water plume, Pearl River Estuary, numerical simulation

Abstract: In this study, a 3D mathematical model of Pearl River Estuary (PRE) and offshore is constructed. Numerical

simulation is applied to study the mechanism of the plume of the PRE and the influence of future sea level

rise. The model is verified by runoff and water elevation during the July 1999 flood season. The harmonic

constants obtained from the simulation are compared with the existing results, and the results are in good

consistency. The numerical simulation shows that the expansion of the plume is mainly affected by runoff,

topography, Coriolis force, wind and sea surface height. The rise of sea level will make the salt isoline lines

of the PRE move to upstream, but it does not affect the overall scope of the fresh water, the range of fresh

water is mainly influenced by upstream flow. After the sea level rise the fresh water of the west coast of

Guangdong Province appears to be expanded to the west in spring, summer and autumn. At the same time,

the estuary circulation of the north-south is enhanced. The increased estuary circulation causes more fresh

water flows out through the surface, which strengthened the westward expansion of the Coriolis force. In

summer the special symmetrical structure of plume will be destroyed after sea level rise which is also the

result of the change in the estuary circulation.

1 INTRODUCTION

The expansion of fresh water plume in the estuary

has been a problem of great concern in the study of

physical oceanography. The Pearl River is the

second largest river in China. Saltwater intrusion has

attracted widespread attention because of of its

negative impacts on the water supply. However, the

fresh water plume in water resource conservation

status has not been correctly recognized. Runoff

carries a lot of sediment, nutrients and other

substances into the PRE and its adjacent sea area, it

has a great influence on the physical, chemical and

biological processes and the movement of sediment

in the surrounding sea. Studying the law of motion

and mechanism of the PRE plume has critical

theoretical significance and practical value for the

saltwater intrusion, freshwater erosion, water

resource utilization, sediment transport and

ecological environment in PRE. Research shows

that: fresh water is mainly spread out of the sea in

the form of plume flow, formation of low saltwater

mass and saltwater fronts with pinnate distribution.

The plume is mainly affected by runoff, topography,

tide, wind, Coriolis force, baroclinic effect,

background circulation, and sea level height.

In China research on freshwater plume is mainly

based on field observation, satellite remote sensing,

theoretical research, numerical simulation and

numerical simulation combined with other methods.

The research on the fresh water plume is mainly

concentrated on the Yangtze River in China (Wang

et al., 2012; Zhang et al., 2014). Before 2010, there

were relatively few studies on the plumes of the

PRE. Recently, with the richness of data and the

improvement of technical means, the studies of fresh

water plume in the PRE received many attetions. In

the analysis of measured data, Dong et al observed

386

Chen, Y., Zhang, M., Zou, H., Chen, P. and Tang, Z.

The Inﬂuence of Climate Change on the Fresh Water Plume in the Pearl River Estuary.

In Proceedings of the International Workshop on Environment and Geoscience (IWEG 2018), pages 386-394

ISBN: 978-989-758-342-1

the plume of Pearl River during the flood and dry

seasons, the results showed that, high layer

stratification of the plume, the estuarine surface

forms plume flow, and the plume deflects eastward

from the entrance under the south-west monsoon in

the flood season, while during the dry season, the

east of the estuary is a vertical and homogeneous

high salt water and the plume is deflected westward

under the action of geostrophic force (Dong et al.

2004). The surface temperature and salinity

measurements in the northern South China Sea were

analyzed (Sun et al., 2008), indicating that the

southwest monsoon increased and more fresh water

expands eastward, the sea level in the near shore is

higher and the plume of the Pearl River is expanding

westward (Pang 2006). Based on the measured data,

the dynamic characteristics of the plume in summer

were analyzed (Ou et al., 2009). Yang yang found

that the plume of Pearl River will also extend to the

western and esatren, specifically east can be

extended to the center of the Red Bay, and the west

can be extended to the east of Hailing Island. The

plume expands to 21.2 °N driven by the southwest

monsoon, and the plume is very obvious above the

10m depth (Yang and Meng et al., 2010). In the

numerical simulation of plume, the hydrodynamic

force of the plume in the PRE and the small scale

circulation in the winter plume are studied by the

POM model, that the plume of PRE formed by the

river water and high brine of shelf, the deep plume is

not part of the basic tidal, wind and river flow, while

the tide and river flow affects the surface

characteristics of the plume (Wong et al. 2003A;

Wong et al. 2003B; Wong et al., 2004C). The

interaction between the summer Pearl River plume

and the upwelling of the south-west wind driven by

the South China Sea is investigated by the measured

and numerical simulation (ROMS) (Gan et al. 2009).

In recent years, numerical simulation and the

combination of numerical simulation and

measurement have a lot of appearances (Lu et al.

2010; Wang et al. 2012; Shu et al. 2011; Pan et al.,

2014; Lai et al. 2015; Zeng et al. 2015; Yan et al.,

2015).The method of remote sensing inversion has

also begun to be adopted by researchers (Lu and

Zhan 2013; Zhaoyun et al. 2017; Qiu et al. 2017).

As far as we know, there is little research on the

impact of sea level change on the plume of the Pearl

River Estuary. Therefore, this research is 1) to study

the rule of plume movement in the Pearl River

Estuary, and 2) to understand the influence and

dynamic mechanism of sea level change on the

plume of the Pearl River Estuary.

2 DATA AND METHOD

2.1 Data and Model Description

The FVCOM developed by Chen changsheng and

his team at University of Massachusetts was used in

this research (Chen et al., 2003). Grid and water

depth are shown in Figure 1 and 2. Based on the

existing model (Chen et al., 2014; Chen et al.,

2016), at the open ocean boundary, the model was

forced by water elevation that was calculated by the

harmonic constants of 8 main tidal constituents (M

, N

, K

, O

, P

, Q

) interpolated from the

results in the South China Sea (Li et al., 2002). The

measured river discharges (Figure 4) in every 6

hours from 6 major rivers(marked in red texts in

Figure 3) were included to provide the freshwater

input into the domain. The surface wind forcing is

monthly average wind field around the world gained

from National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration . The initial thermohaline field is the

monthly climate data from the South China Sea

Marine Atlas (Editorial Board for Marine Atlas,

2006) with the existing observation data assimilated

(Ji et al., 2015).

Figure 1: Model grid (a) and local grid (b Modalmen and c

Lingdingyang).

The Inﬂuence of Climate Change on the Fresh Water Plume in the Pearl River Estuary

387

Figure 2: The 3D water depth of the study area.

Figure 3: Upstream boundary, estuary and station in the

study area.

Figure 4: The measured river discharges in every 6 hours

from 6 major rivers in 2006.

2.2 Model Validation

2.2.1 Verification of Water Elevation

The flow model validation salinity in previous

studies have been published (Chen et al., 2016). This

paper mainly studies the plume, and plume mainly

in the summer wet period. Therefore verify the

model by selecting some of the measured data

during the July 1999 flood.

Figure 5, the rise of the water elevation caused

by flood is very obvious, the water elevation is

positive from Makou to Beijie in Xijiang river, it is

no flood stream, the highest water elevation uplift to

6 m at Makou, and Beijie is close to 3 m. The water

elevation in the whole river network area has been

raised dramatically, the mesh of mode faces great

pressure. To further quantify the accuracy of model

results, we calculated the root mean square error

(RMSE), relative error (RE), correlation coefficient

(r), nash-sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), and a

skill assessment parameter (Table 1). Although the

RMSE of Makou reached 0.18 m, the simulation

precision is acceptable (RE is 3.8%) compared with

the actual elevation of 6 m, r values are larger than

0.85, and skill values are larger than 0.9. The

simulation results can well reflect the changes of the

water elevation in the river network during the flood

period. Therefore, the model used in this paper can

be adequate to deal with the flood. Further the

model can be used for the next simulation of plume.

Table 1: RMSE, RE, skill, r, and NSE for modeled

elevation.

Observation

station

RMSE

（m）

RE（

%）

skill r NSE

Guanchong

Dahu

Beijie

Makou

0.09

0.07

0.05

0.18

15.6

7.3

0.5

3.8

0.97

0.98

0.97

0.91

0.96

0.98

0.97

0.99

0.93

0.96

0.92

0.70

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388

Figure 5: Water elevation (left) and flow (right) verification diagram (the actual red ring dotted line is the measured value,

the blue line is the simulated value).

Table 2: RMSE, RE, skill, r, and NSE for modeled flow.

Section RMSE(

/s) RE(%) skill

NSE

Shizui

Dahu

Beijie

Makou

121.6

5050.8

325.6

307.0

5.1

3.6

0.2

1.1

0.99

0.96

0.79

0.99

0.97

0.79

0.99

0.87

0.55

0.96

2.2.2 Verification of Flow

Table 2 is the RMSE, RE, skill, r, and NSE for

modeled flow. The RMSE is larger near the Dahu

entrance, but compared to the peak flow (40000

/s), the RE is smaller, so the result is acceptable.

The skill, r, and NSE are less than 0.85 in Beijie,

this means the simulation results are close to the

average value of the observations (RE is 0.2%), the

measured value fluctuates greatly, possibly due to

observation errors, and the overall results are

reliable. The simulation results can well reflect the

changes of the flow in the river network during the

flood period. Therefore, the model used in this paper

can be adequate to deal with the flood. Further the

model can be used for the next simulation of plume.

3 RESULTS

3.1 Tide Harmonic Constants

The spread of the plume is very wide, the accuracy

of the simulation results over the entire area is

particularly important. Through the the numerical

harmonic analysis of the simulation results, the

amplitude and phase distribution of

eight main constituents were obtained (Figure 6, list

only K

and M

). The results of this paper are

compared with the existing results. The amplitude of

the K

is about 0.28 m in the eastern part of the

simulation area, and the amplitude increases

gradually in the process of spreading westward, the

maximum amplitude is 0.42 m (increased 50%). The

amplitude of O

is between 0.24-0.34 m, and the

amplitude of P

is between 0.09-0.13 m, the

amplitude of Q

is located at 0.04-0.06 m. It can be

found that the amplitude of P

is twice of Q

. The

phase of P

is equal to K

, while the phase of Q

lags

behind K

. The amplitude of K

is 0.38-0.40 m, the

amplitude of O

is 0.28-0.30 m, the amplitude of P

is 0.09-0.10 m, and the amplitude of Q

is 0.05-0.06

m in the Lingdingyang area.

The semidiurnal constituent in the simulated area

is dominated by the M

. The amplitude of M

increased significantly in the process of spreading

westward (from 0.1 m to 0.65 m), this result is very

close Wang Biao (0.12-0.56 m) (Wang, 2012).

There is a low value of phase in the southeast corner

(Figure 6), this indicates that the semidiurnal

constituent from the open sea divides into two

The Inﬂuence of Climate Change on the Fresh Water Plume in the Pearl River Estuary

389

branches, and spreads westward and northeast

respectively. This result is consistent with the

existing research (Wang, 2012, Zhu et al. 2009). The

amplitude of S

tide is about half of M

, between

0.04 m and 0.28 m, the amplitude of K

is about

0.01-0.12 m, and the amplitude of N

is about 0.04-

0.14 m. Overall, the amplitude and phase of M

, S

and N

have great similarity in the distribution.

is significant in the Lingdingyang sea, reach to

0.45-0.55 m, the amplitude of S

, K

and N

are

0.26 m, 0.06 m and 0.10 m.

3.2 Tide Constant

The tidal types are generally different for different

estuaries. Dietrich defines the tidal coefficient F (F=

) / (M

)) (Dietrich, 1963). Tidal

coefficient F less than 0.25 is semidiurnal tide type;

0.25-1.5 is mixed tide, and semidiurnal tide is

dominant; 1.5-3.0 is mixed tide, and diurnal tide is

dominant; greater than 3.0 is diurnal tide. The tidal

coefficient F near the PRE is mostly between 0.8

and 1.5 (Figure 7). This indicates that the tidal type

in the PRE is mixed tide dominated by semidiurnal

tide, which is consistent with the result of Wang

Biao (Wang, 2012). The tidal coefficient F increased

to 2-3 in the river network. The tide change to mixed

tide dominated by diurnal tide. This means that the

influence of the diurnal tide is greater than semi-

diurnal tide in the river network. The results of tide

are consistent with the existing research results, the

simulation results are reasinable for further research.

Figure 6: The harmonic constants of diurnal tide (left) and

Semidiurnal tide (right) in PRE.

Figure 7: The distribution of tidal coefficient.

3.3 Analysis on the Law and

Mechanism of Fresh Water

Movement in the Pearl River

Estuary

After the Pearl River flows into the sea, it mixes

with the local seawater to form low salt water. This

is the plume of the Pearl River. This paper uses the

32 PSU salinity line as the boundary between the

fresh water plume and the high salt water in the

open sea. The following will analyze the extending

form and dynamic mechanism of the Pearl River

plume during the season.

The main factors considered in this paper are

five, tidal, wind, Coriolis force, runoff, and sea

level. This section mainly considers the seasonal

changes in sea level. The runoff is based on

measured data at the upstream boundary. Tides are

given by model predictions combined with

measured data, which incorporate sea level heights

for each season. The wind is downloaded from the

Internet using the monthly average wind

interpolated to the grid by region. Four experimental

cases are set up for the plume, named as Case_1,

Case_2, Case_3, Case_4. Case_1 is an actual case

study, Case_2 is a case without wind, Case_3 is a

case without Coriolis force, and Case_4 is a case

without Wind and Coriolis force. At the same time,

two sea level scenarios have also been considered.

Base is the sea level scenario of 2006, P80 is

scenario after sea level rises about 80cm. The results

are monthly mean value. Through the comparative

analysis of experimental results, the distribution of

plume in the Pearl River Estuary during different

seasons was ascertained. We will analyze the

distribution of plume during each season and the

influence mechanism of various factors of the PRE.

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390

The simulation results of 2006 are compared with

the observations of Yang Yang (Yang and Meng et

al., 2010). The distribution results are consistent.

Due to space limitations, this paper only lists

summer results.

In spring, the surface plume of PRE is mainly

westward along the coast. The plume can extend

south to near 21.4 °N. The factors causing the

westward expansion of plume include Coriolis force,

northeast monsoon and sea level height. The

Coriolis force is the main driving force of west

expansion. The northeast monsoon will cause the

Ekman effect to significantly restrict the outward

expansion. The bottom plume is also mainly west-

expanded, except that the area of plume is

significantly smaller than the surface layer.

In summer. The surface plume area of the PRE

reaches the maximum in the whole year, mainly

because the runoff reaches the maximum value

throughout the year. At the same time, the plume

echibits a unique symmetrical structure (Figure 8,

Black box), the main reason is the Ekman effect of

the southwest monsoon. The summer surface plume

extends westward and eastward simultaneously, The

driving force for the expansion to the west is the

Coriolis force and sea level, and the driving force for

the expansion to the east is the southwest monsoon

and sea level. The bottom plume still extends to the

west, and the monsoon has no effect on the

distribution of the plume at the bottom.

Figure 8: The plume distribution in the four cases under

Base scene in summer.

In autumn, the runoff weakened significantly, the

monsoon began to change, and the northeast wind

gradually strengthened. The northeast monsoon and

the Coriolis force restrict the spread of plume into

the open sea. The surface plume constrict to the

coast and form a significant northeast-southwest

plume. At this time, the Pearl River plume is mianly

westward. The dynamic factors for westward

expansion include Coriolis force, northeast monsoon

and sea level height. Although the northeast

monsoon hindered the eastward expansion of the

plume, there is still an isolated low-salt center in the

outside of Daya Bay. This center is the remnant of

the eastward plume in summer, which is separated

from the body of the plume after the autumn

monsoon shifts to become an isolated water mass..

There is also a low-salt center at the bottom of the

east of Daya Bay, which is smaller than the surface

and closer to the shore. The bottom plume still

expands to the west, and the main driving force is

the Coriolis force. The monsoon has no effect on the

bottom.

The surface plume of the PRE are mainly west

expansion under the influence of the northeast

monsoon and Coriolis force in the winter, and is

limited to shallow water areas along the western

coast of Guangdong. The main factors of western

expansion are Coriolis force, northeast monsoon,

and sea level height. The range of plume is smallest

throughout the year in winter.

3.4 Prediction and Mechanism

Analysis of the Impact of Sea Level

Rise on the Fresh Water of the

Pearl River Estuary

The previous section analysed the law and dynamic

mechanism of the plume in the PRE. This section

focuses on the analysis of the effects of sea level rise

on the plume in the PRE. Figure 9 is the plume

distribution of Case_1 under Base and P80 scene in

summer.

In spring, the plume of the PRE will move to

north as a whole after the rise of sea level, and the

range does not change much. The westward

extension of the plume on the western coast of

Guangdong is slightly strengthened.

The Inﬂuence of Climate Change on the Fresh Water Plume in the Pearl River Estuary

391

Figure 9: The plume distribution of Case_1 under Base

and P80 scene in summer.

The most obvious effect of sea level rise on

surface plume in summer is destruction of the

original symmetrical distribution structure (Figure

9). The reason is the strengthen of north-south

estuarine circulation in PRE, more fresh water flow

into the open sea through the surface after sea level

rise. The range of eastern expansion of the plume in

the summer does not change much after the rise of

the sea level. However, the easternmost position has

shrunk slightly to the west. The westward expansion

of the plume in the western coast of Guangdong has

shown a trend of increasing westward expansion.

In autumn. The isohalines outside the estuary are

obviously moving northward after the sea level rise,

the isohaline of 32 psu extend slightly eastward. The

low-salt center in the eastern coast of Guangdong

appears to move west, the size of the water mass

does not change. The western plume of the western

coast of Guangdong has seen a phenomenon of west

expansion, and the longest distance to the southward

expansion has also increased. At the bottom, the

original low-salt water mass disappeared. The range

of the bottom plume decreases slightly after sea

level rise. Because the plume area is inherently

small, sea level rise has not affected the range of

winter plume.

4 DISCUSSIONS

Sea level rise is a long-term process. For ease of

study, this paper does not consider long-term change

in runoff, topography and other factors. Previous

study has found that sea level rise will affect the

tide, salinity, saltwater intrusion, and estuary

circulation in the PRE (Chen et al., 2016). It also

affects the plume of this paper. The most

fundamental reason for these effects is that the sea

level rise has changed the WSS (Water Surface

Slope) of the river. The decrease of WSS means that

the water level gradient on the upstream and

downstream is reduced, and the runoff suppression

force is weakened. Runoff and tide have always

been a shifting relationship at the estuary. Runoff

suppressing force weakens, and tidal action will

strengthen in the river channel. Previous research

has found that tidal range and current will increase

and come earlier in the river channel after sea level

rise, the more obvious the upstream (Chen et al.,

2016). The results of the harmonic analysis also

illustrate this situation (Figure 10). Of course, the

impact of sea level rise on tide is limited to the river

channel and estuaries that are affected by tide. There

is almost no impact on the open sea. The Pearl River

estuary has a north-south estuarine circulation, high-

salinity seawater upstreams from the bottom layer

under tidal action, and fresh water flow out from the

surface. After the sea level rise, the tidal effect

increases, and more high-salinity seawater upstream

from the bottom. Although the runoff suppressing

force weakens, more freshwater flows out from the

surface. This enhances the north-south estuary

circulation. More freshwater float on high-salinity

seawater after rushing out of the estuary, continue to

expand outwards due to inertia and Coriolis force.

This breaks the unique symmetrical structure of the

summer and also resulted in the westward expansion

of the plume to strengthen.

Figure 10: Difference of M2 tidal amplitide(a, cm) and

phase lag(b, °) between the Base and P80.

IWEG 2018 - International Workshop on Environment and Geoscience

392

5 CONCLUSIONS

The factors causing the westward expansion of

plume include Coriolis force, northeast monsoon

and sea level height in spring. In summer, the plume

echibits a unique symmetrical structure, the main

reason is the Ekman effect of the southwest

monsoon. The summer surface plume extends

westward and eastward simultaneously, The driving

force for the expansion to the west is the Coriolis

force and sea level, and the driving force for the

expansion to the east is the southwest monsoon and

sea level. The dynamic factors for westward

expansion include Coriolis force, northeast monsoon

and sea level height in autumn. Although the

northeast monsoon hindered the eastward expansion

of the plume, there is still an isolated low-salt center

in the outside of Daya Bay. The surface plume of the

PRE is mainly west expansion under the influence

of the northeast monsoon and Coriolis force in the

winter, and is limited to shallow water areas along

the western coast of Guangdong.

Sea level rise will cause the salt isohaline lines

of the PRE to migrate to the upstream, but it will not

change the overall extent of the plume, and the range

of plume is mainly affected by the upstream runoff.

The plume on the coast of western Guangdong

appears to have expanded westward in the spring,

summer, and autumn seasons after the sea level rise.

In the summer and autumn, the plume's eastward

expansion distance decreased. The unique

symmetrical structure of summer plume will be

destroyed. The reasons for these changes are the

decrease of the WSS and the strengthening of the

estuary circulation after sea level rise.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This research was jointly supported by Central

Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research

Fund, South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute,

CAFS (NO. 2016TS37), and Shenzhen science and

technology innovation project

(JCYJ20160331141759795).

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