Step 1, index normalization. Table 2 presents
that the 10 indexes are quite different in magnitude
and dimensions, it is necessary to make
normalization before performing flash flood risk
assessment. After normalization, the absolute values
of data of different indexes can be change into
relative values in same magnitude and
dimensionless. The following expression presents
the algorithm of normalization:
∗
=
(5)
where,
is the value of original data,
∗
the
normalized value of original data, and
and
the maximum and minimum of a same index,
respectively.
Step 2, weights set. The initial values of weights
were set referring to expert’s experiences, that is, the
hazard factors of rainstorms with durations of 6
hours (H
r6
) and 3 hours (H
r3
), flood peak modus
(H
lm
) and time of concentration (H
lt
) were set values
of 0.5, 0.1, 0.2, and 0.2; the exposure factors of
population, numbers of houses and household assets
were set of 0.5, 0.4 and 0.1; and the vulnerability
factors of ratio of weak houses (type III- and IV) to
the total houses, covering areas of single auto- or
manual monitoring station were set of 0.3, 0.35 and
0.35. Then, the initial values were modified by trial-
and-error method, using the flash flood events
records in three typical watersheds, the Jinghe River,
the Longhe River and the Yihe River (see Figure 1),
which stands for south area, north area and Loess
Plateau area in China. Table 3 presents the
calibrated weight values of components and factors
in the risk index system.
Step 3, the values of risk components
computation. The contributions of H, E and V were
computed according to the model developed in
section 3.2. The value of flash flood risk can be
computed based on formula (2), (3) and (4) as
follows: first, obtaining the weighted values of each
factor through values of each factor multiplying its
weight; second, summarizing the values of
components of layer 2 (hazard, exposure and
vulnerability); third, multiplying the values of
components of layer 2 and getting the values of flash
flood risk in each computed entity.
Step 4, perform flash flood risk assessment and
risk level classification, namely, the contributions of
H, E, and V were classified as three levels of high,
medium, and low, then made a risk assessment using
the H-E-V Overlaying Cube to obtain the general
risk levels for each watershed (refer to table 1).
5 CONCLUSIONS
The main understandings from this flash flood risk
assessment are as follows:
(1) The consideration on the computed entity and
weight set for risk factors was special and made the
results more creditable in this study. On one hand,
the basic entity for flash flood computation is
watershed that the relationships among various
hazard factors were taken into consideration. Flood
peak modus and time of concentration were selected
as factors for watershed geographic delineation for
hazard component. In fact, the calculation processes
of the two parameters involve the longest distance
from the mouth to the origin of a river, the mean
slope, landuse situation, soil type, vegetation cover,
and average surface slope in the watershed, the
shape of cross section of river channel. Generally,
the hazard component was considered in terms of
hydrology and hydraulics. On the other hand, weight
set was performed by trial-and-error method using
the flash flood events records in three typical
watersheds, the Jinghe River, the Longhe River and
the Yihe River, that made the weights in this
analysis more reasonable. These consideration on
entity and weight set made the results more
creditable.
(2) The third layer factors in risk index system
are highly representative and the approach on risk
analysis are rational in this study. The outcomes of
flash flood risk assessment agree well with the
places where flash flood events occurred. Generally,
there are about 49,000 flash flood events records
since 1950 in China, about 91% of them located
within the high and medium flash flood risk area in
this study. The statistical results in this study
indicated that the densities of flash flood events are
about 19, 12 and 10 per thousand square kilometer
in high, medium and low risk level area,
respectively. In other words, the density in high risk
level area is about twice of that in low risk level area.
Therefore, the results are credible and worth of
reference.
(3) The protected objects at different risk levels
are identified at different scales that is significantly
important for flash flood management from area to
area. In general, the nation-wide areas in high,
medium and low risk level reach 0.46, 1.22, and
2.17 million square kilometers, respectively; and the
populations are 99 million, 184 million and 302
million, severally. These outcomes can be further
refined to each watershed, then to county level, and
to provincial level, which are quite helpful for