Leverage of Number of Population, GDRP, HDI

and Unemployment on Poverty Level in Six District in South

Sumatera

Erawati Agustini

Master Program of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Universitas Sriwijaya

Keywords: Number of Population, Gross Domestic Regional Product, Human Development Index , Unemployment

Rate, Poverty

Abstract: The level of poverty in South Sumatra Province is still a development issue that requires lot of focus of

attention to be resolved. The purpose of this study is to know the leverage of population, PDRB, HDI, and

unemployment on poverty level in six urban districts in South Sumatra in 2011-2016. Data analysis using

panel data regression techniques with the help of Software Eviews Version 8.1. The results showed that

both simultaneously and partially independent variables significantly influence the dependent variable.

1 INTRODUCTION

Poverty is an inequality of opportunity to

formulate the basis of social power, which includes

assets (land, housing, equipment, health), financial

resources (adequate income and credit),

socio-political organizations that can be used to

achieve common interests, goods or services,

adequate knowledge and skills, and useful

information. Therefore, the government's program to

handle poverty is primarily to reduce the number of

poor people. But in reality the number of poor

people from year to year is not getting decreased,

but even more and more.

Differences between districts and cities in some

aspects can affect the number of poor people. In this

case the problem of poverty in the district is more

complex, because of the wide poverty range.

Nevertheless, the existing public facilities in the

district are still inferior to the existing public

facilities in the city, other than that for people living

in remote villages will find it difficult to access these

services. The wide area of the district is also an

obstacle to the spread of infrastructure evenly,

because it requires more funds than infrastructure

development in cities that tend to be more narrow

than the district.

The existence of regional expansion discourse

that continues to grow in the community especially

the community in the region behind the government

and Regional Representative Council (DPD)

Republic Indonesia (RI) to formulate a grand

strategy or grand design on the arrangement of

autonomous regions in Indonesia to be used until the

year 2025. From the grand design is the reference

for the number of provinces and the ideal districts in

Indonesia that gave birth to the division of

pemekaran, one of which is the Province of South

Sumatra, which is rumored to be divided into 2

(two) with the possibility of the province to be

formed is the Province of South-West

Sumatera(Sumselbar) or with the possibility of other

names namely Musi Raya Province developed as

part of the Great Design of the Regions (Desartada)

RI 2025. Sumselbar or Musi Raya Province is

planned to be 6 (six) districts / cities, namely Lubuk

Linggau City, Empat Lawang Regency, Musi Rawas

Regency, North Musi Rawas Regency (Muratara) ,

Musi Banyuasin Regency (Muba), and Banyuasin

Regency.

The districts and municipalities belonging to the

Musi Raya area, especially in Musi Rawas and Musi

Banyuasin districts, are based on data having higher

numbers and percentage of poor people than the

number and percentage of poor people in South

Sumatera Province.

Based on the data in the last 4 (four) years can be

seen that in terms of poverty rate and the level and

number of poverty in the region of Musi Raya every

year experienced changes in the increase and

184

Agustini, E.

Leverage of Number of Population, GDRP, HDI, and Unemployment on Poverty Level in Six District In South Sumatera.

DOI: 10.5220/0008438201840188

In Proceedings of the 4th Sriwijaya Economics, Accounting, and Business Conference (SEABC 2018), pages 184-188

ISBN: 978-989-758-387-2

decrease. However, the order of regencies /

municipalities did not change, as follows: Musi

Banyuasin Regency, Musi Rawas, Lubuk Linggau,

Four Lawang, and last Banyuasin Regency.

Tabel 1: Number And Percentage of Poor People In the Regency / City Region Musi Raya Province of South Sumatera (In

Thousands Heads)

KABUPATEN/KOTA

JUMLAH/

% PENDUDUK MISKIN

2011

2012

2013

2014

Musi Rawas

97,99

18,25

96,39

17,67

98,79

17,85

97,01

17,28

Musi Banyuasin

108,84

18,99

107,03

18,29

107,17

18,02

105,08

17,38

Banyuasin

89,35

11,66

87,87

11,27

97,14

12,28

95,38

11,88

Empat Lawang

31,32

13,82

30,64

13,37

30,47

13,10

30,38

12,89

Lubuk Linggau

29,69

14,43

29,22

13,89

30,73

14,37

30,18

13,90

Musi Rawas Utara

Prov. Sumsel

1,105,00

14,80

1,043,62

13,48

1,104,57

14,06

1,085,80

13,62

Source : BPS Publication of 2018, Community Welfare Indicator South Sumatera Province

Seeing the condition of areas that still have high

poverty rates, the authors are interested to conduct

research on poverty issues with the title "analysis of

the leverage of number of population, grdp, hdi, and

unemployment on poverty level in six district in

south sumatera".

The amount of poverty can be influenced by

various factors, especially the population, GRDP,

human development index, and unemployment.

Therefore, in this study formulated the problem on

how and how big the variable of the number of

population affect the level of poverty?

2 RESEARCH VARIABLE

This study uses poverty level as dependent

variable, while the independent variables in this

study are population, GRDP, HDI, and

unemployment rate in six regencies / cities in South

Sumatera Province Year 2011-2017.

Definisi Operasional

2.1 Poverty Level

the poverty rate data is used, the percentage of

poverty, which is the comparative data between the

number of poor and total population in 6 (Six)

districts cities in South Sumatra Province in 2011

until 2017.

2.2 Total population

The population is the number of population in 6

(Six) districts / municipalities in South Sumatra

Province in 2011 until 2017 in units of soul which

then dilog to obtain percentage number for the unit

becomes equivalent to other variables.

2.3 Gross Regional Domestic Product

(GRDP)

GRDP is the net value of goods and services

produced by various economic activities in an area

within a period. Data used in this research is GRDP

data at 6 (Six) Regency / City in South Sumatera

Province in 2011 until 2017.

2.4 Human Development Index (HDI)

HDI is a single composite indicator used to

measure the achievement of human development

that has been done in a region. Data used in this

research is data of HDI at 6 (Six) Regency / City in

South Sumatera Province year 2011 until 2017.

2.5 Unemployment Rate

Unemployment is a person who enters the

Leverage of Number of Population, GDRP, HDI, and Unemployment on Poverty Level in Six District In South Sumatera

185

workforce (15 years and above) who is looking for a

job, preparing a business, who is not looking for a

job. Data used to see unemployment is the ratio of

open unemployment to population in 6 (Six)

Districts / Cities in South Sumatra Province in 2011

to 2017 (in percentage units).

2.6 Data Source

Sources of data used in this study are secondary

data, ie data obtained in the form that has been or

has been collected from other sources and obtained

from other parties such as literature books, notes or

sources related to the problems studied. The data

taken is the data of all six districts / cities in South

Sumatra.

Research model

The research model in this research is using

econometric model of regression of data panel. This

equation model will be estimated based on the

theory and hypothesis that the poverty rate is

influenced by population variables, unemployment

rate, GRDP, and HDI.

= f (X

, X

TPT

, X

PDRB

, X

IPM

)

K = a + b

+ b

TPT

+ b

PDRB

+ b

IPM

+ e

K = Poverty rate

A = constants/intercept

, b

= variable coefficient number

JK = total population

TPT = unemployment rate

GRDP = Gross Regional Domestic

Product

HDI = Human Depelopement Index

I =Regional Zone (City Lubuk

Linggau, Empat Lawang District, Musi Rawas

District, North Musi Rawas Regency(Muratara),

Musi Banyuasin District (Muba), and Banyuasin

Regency.

T = years of observation

(2011-2017)

e = error/(s)

3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

ANALYSIS

3.1 Analysis of Classical Assumption

Detection With Eviews

Prior to the interpretation of the regression

results of the model used, then first tested the

classical assumption, to determine whether the

model is considered relevant or not. In this study

after testing classical assumption that includes data

normality test, heterokesdastisitas test,

multicolinearity test, and autocorrelation test then

based on the results if the data is declared free of

assumption test.

3.2 Panel Data Regression Analysis

Panel data regression analysis is used to

determine the effect of Population, GRDP, HDI and

unemployment rate to poverty level in six districts /

cities in South Sumatra in 2011-2015. Based on

calculations conducted using Program Eviews then

obtained the following results:

1. The constant values is 12.8408000088, meaning if

the population, GRDP, HDI, and unemployment rate

is 0, then the values of K is 12.840800001003.

When adjusted for population data, GRDP, HDI, and

existing unemployment rate, each increase of 0 then

the poverty rate will be constants at 12.8408000088

in the next year.

2. The regression coefficient of the population

variable is -3.605227, meaning that any increase in

population of 1 unit will decrease K by -3.605227.

3. The regression coefficient of GRDP is -8.251528,

meaning that any increase of GRDP by 1 unit will

reduce poverty by 8.251528.

4. The coefficient of variable regression of HDI is

-5.217020, meaning that every increase of HDI of 1

unit will decrease poverty of 5.217020.

5. Regression coefficient of variable unemployment

rate equal to 8.189897, meaning every increase of

unemployment rate equal to 1 unit will increase

poverty equal to 8,189897.

4 CONCLUSION

This study analyzes how the influence of

population variable, GRDP, HDI, and

unemployment to poverty level in six districts /

cities in South Sumatra in 2011-2015. Based on the

description that has been done in the previous

SEABC 2018 - 4th Sriwijaya Economics, Accounting, and Business Conference

186

chapters, it can be concluded as follows:

1. Variable of population has positive and significant

sign of poverty level. In accordance with the

hypothesis, the positive sign indicates that the higher

the population, the higher the level of poverty. In

addition, the rapid population growth will cause new

problems both in social and economic terms.

2. Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP)

variable has negative and significant sign of poverty

level. In accordance with the hypothesis, the

negative sign indicates that the higher the GRDP, the

lower the poverty level.

3. Variable of Human Development Index (HDI) has

a negative sign and significant to poverty level. In

accordance with the hypothesis, the negative sign

indicates that the higher the HDI, it will reduce the

level of poverty. The value of HDI in its calculation

includes education, health, and expenditure

indicators per capita, so that it can be used as one of

the indicators of poverty of a region.

4. The unemployment variable has a negative and

insignificant sign to the poverty level. The results

are not in accordance with the hypothesis and the

previous theories and research that became the

theoretical basis of this study. Because as the

population is open unemployed there are some kinds

of unemployed, those looking for work, those

preparing for the business, those who are not looking

for a job because they feel unlikely to get a job and

the last one who already has a job but has not started

work.

5 SUGGESTION

1. Further research is expected to examine other

variables besides the variables in this study in order

to obtain a varied outcome of anything that affects

poverty.

2. Subsequent research can take samples in the

narrower scope of the City / District for more

accurate research results.

3. The object of research should be more focused in

order to really know the variables that affect the

level of poverty.

4. Required solutions of large population from year

to year, for example with population-oriented

development, population-oriented development

contains two meanings that are development that is

adjusted to the potential and condition of the

existing population. Population should be a central

point in the development process, the population

must be subject and object in development,

development is by residents and for the population.

This means that development is more emphasis on

improving the quality of human resources than

infrastructure development alone.

5. From the result of the research, it is found that

GRDP have negative effect to poverty level, so that

in the future the improvement of GRDP can be

balanced with equitable distribution of income

oriented equity and equitable distribution of

economic results to all community groups, and

efforts to increase economic growth in each region

by relying on its own potential.

6. Indicators of HDI that describe the human life

cycle consisting of educational measures, life

expectancy and adjusted per-capita expenditure are

crucial to the decline of the poor in the study area,

the government needs to design a sustainable

program in order to spur up the HDI value by

facilitating access education and health especially

for the poor.

7. Unemployment based on the results of the study

has a negative and significant effect on poverty, with

the result is expected more districts / cities to expand

the employment opportunities and promote the

development of the informal sector, such as home

industry.

8. The need for longer time series data usage to

know how the influence of government policy in

efforts to reduce the poverty level of research areas

in particular and South Sumatra in particular.

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