Modelling and Prediction of Rice Price in East Java using Approach to the Multiplicative Time Series Analysis

Sediono, Satya Purnama

2018

Abstract

About 78% of Indonesia's population take a rice to meet daily carbohydrate intake. However, the fluctuating of the rice price is one of the problems that should be faced by Bulog in East Java. Therefore, this research aims to model and predict the rice price in East Java. We use the ARIMA Multiplicative Time Series analysis to model and predict the rice price. The basis of the Multiplicative time series analysis is that the factors affecting the pattern of the data set in the past and present tend to change little in the future. Thus, the time series analysis can assist the researchers to make some decisions. The appropriate model for the rice price data in East Java is ARIMA seasonal model. These are due to the harvest time. Based on the smallest MSE, the result shows that the appropriate model for the rice price data in East Java from January 2008 to December 2016 is ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 or IMAISMA. There are no significant differences between prediction price of rice in East Java for the period of January 2017 to August 2017 and sample data.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Sediono. and Purnama S. (2018). Modelling and Prediction of Rice Price in East Java using Approach to the Multiplicative Time Series Analysis.In Proceedings of the International Conference on Mathematics and Islam - Volume 1: ICMIs, ISBN 978-989-758-407-7, pages 80-84. DOI: 10.5220/0008517500800084

in Bibtex Style

@conference{icmis18,
author={Sediono and Satya Purnama},
title={Modelling and Prediction of Rice Price in East Java using Approach to the Multiplicative Time Series Analysis},
booktitle={Proceedings of the International Conference on Mathematics and Islam - Volume 1: ICMIs,},
year={2018},
pages={80-84},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0008517500800084},
isbn={978-989-758-407-7},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the International Conference on Mathematics and Islam - Volume 1: ICMIs,
TI - Modelling and Prediction of Rice Price in East Java using Approach to the Multiplicative Time Series Analysis
SN - 978-989-758-407-7
AU - Sediono.
AU - Purnama S.
PY - 2018
SP - 80
EP - 84
DO - 10.5220/0008517500800084